000
FXUS61 KOKX 100224
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
924 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moved south and east of Long Island Thursday
evening, as high pressure was building to the west. The high
builds in overnight and remains in control through the weekend,
and is then followed by a cold frontal passage Monday night.
High pressure then builds in again behind the front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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A cold front moved through the area and was south and east at
01Z. High pressure was building to the west and will build in
overnight.

Skies were mostly clear and will remain mostly clear through
the first half of tonight, however, clouds are expected to
increase after midnight as some divergence from an upper level
jet will enhance a developing frontal wave moving along the cold
front to the south. Guidance continues to keep precipitation
remaining south of the area for Friday, so kept the forecast dry
with a fair amount of cloud cover tonight and Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to build in for Friday, aiding in
suppressing any precipitation to the south. Cooler conditions
are expected, with highs near normal for this time of year, in
the lower to middle 50s and lows in the 30s to lower 40s. The
high remains in control Friday night, so dry conditions continue
through then as a somewhat zonal flow develops aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A combination of high pres and moisture starved fronts is
expected to keep the area dry thru the period.

A mid 1030s high will build towards the area on Sat, then over
the area on Sun. NW flow will usher in a cool and dry airmass on
Sat. Deep mixing should help to offset the cooling airmass.
Only limiting factor for temps Sat ngt is the wind, keeping most
of the are from max radiational cooling. This seems to be
reflected in the NBM, so it was used for temps.

Winds lighten up on Sun, but highs generally in the mid 40s with a
lack of deep mixing and a cold airmass in place. Better radiational
cooling Sun ngt. Went with the NBM for now, but the numbers could
verify 5 degrees or more colder, closer to what the MEX is
suggesting.

A SW flow develops on Mon as the high settles S of the cwa. The next
cold front comes thru dry Mon ngt attm. A roughly 1030 high then
builds in thru Wed/Thu, keeping the area dry. Mon-Wed blw climo,
then some return flow could warm things up a few degrees for
Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure was building to the west of the terminals and
will build into the region overnight into Friday, while low
pressure tracks across eastern Canada. Another wave of low
pressure passes to the south of Long Island Friday.

VFR through the forecast period with mainly clear skies. A mid
level cloud deck moves in from the west overnight at around
12kft and remains through Friday afternoon.

Light NW winds veer to W overnight, with a light westerly flow
continuing into Friday. A few gusts around 15kt, possibly as
high as 20kt, will be possible until around 05Z. An occasional
gust will be possible again Friday afternoon.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An occasional gust 15-20 kt possible through 05Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night through Tuesday: VFR. NW G20-25kt on Tuesday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria. The
passage of a cold front may bring gusts to around 25 kt through
early tonight, but right now only expecting it to be occasional,
and limited to near shore. Waves are expected to remain 3 to 4
ft across the ocean waters tonight through Friday night.

Although gusty NW flow is expected on Sat, winds are progged to
remain blw 25 kt attm. Winds and seas blw sca lvls Sun-Mon, then a
cold front could bring winds, and possibly seas, up to sca lvls on
Tue, especially on the ocean. Winds and seas blw sca lvls on Wed
with high pres building in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP/MET/MW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP