000
FXUS61 KOKX 101122
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
622 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area through the weekend before
weakening on Monday. A cold front passes Monday night followed
by high pressure through next Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments account
for the latest observations of temperature and dew point.
High pressure continues to build into the region from the west
today. A frontal wave traversing south of the area will result in
fairly cloudy conditions. While showers may approach the area from
the south, low level dry air should prevent much if any light rain
from reaching the surface.
A persistent NW flow at 10-15 mph shifts W later this afternoon. CAA
combined with ample high cloud cover will prevent temperatures from
rising much today as highs are only in the low 50s. Continued dry
conditions are expected tonight with skies becoming clearer as the
disturbance moves offshore. Lows in the 30s are expected. The NYC
metro will remain in the low 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure then continues to build into the area through the
weekend. The biggest impact will be falling temperature trend
through the weekend. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 50s
whereas strong CAA and a high pressure center approaching will
prevent temperatures on Sunday from climbing out of the middle 40s.
Temperatures Saturday night will be some of the coldest air thus far
this season with widespread temperatures in the 20s for the inland
areas and low 30s near the coast. The NYC metro may fall into the
low to middle 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes were made to the long term with the NBM
followed closely. Overall, the global models and ensemble means
agree on the pattern evolution through much of next week. Dry
conditions and below normal temperatures are expected Sunday night
through Tuesday. Temperatures trend upward middle to late week,
trending above normal by Thursday.
High pressure overhead Sunday night will lead to ideal radiational
cooling conditions with light winds and mostly clear skies. Sunday
night is expected to be the coldest night so far for Fall 2023 with
lows in the middle to upper 20s inland and low 30s near the coast.
Portions of the NYC and urban NE NJ metro could see their first
freeze of the season. The high pressure weakens on Monday and will
be quickly followed by a dry cold front passage Monday night. The
front is associated with an amplifying upper trough passage that
should amplify further to our east Tuesday and Wednesday. Rising
heights with a building ridge aloft and surface high pressure will
dominate the pattern Tuesday through Thursday.
Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 40s and low 50s.
Gusty NW winds, 20-30 mph, look likely on Tuesday with building high
pressure to our west. Highs in the low to middle 50s look reasonable
on Wednesday as the air mass begins to moderate. Highs should rise
further on Thursday reaching the upper 50s for most locations.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure continues to build in from the southwest through this
evening, while a weak wave of low pressure passes to the south of
Long Island this afternoon.
VFR.
Light WNW-W winds to start will back to the WSW-SW late this
morning into the afternoon. Winds speeds will also increase,
becoming, 10-13 kt. An occasional gust 15-18 kt is possible
this afternoon. Winds back to the W and then NW tonight with
wind speeds under 10 kt. The flow remains NW on Saturday
morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction may vary 20-30 degrees either side of forecast
at times today.
An occasional gust 15-20 kt possible this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday through Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. NW G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the weekend with a
decreasing pressure gradient, however, some gusts today through
Saturday night may approach 20 kt with seas rising to 3-4 feet.
A weak pressure gradient over the waters Sunday night into
Monday will lead to conditions below SCA levels. A cold front
passes through the waters Monday night with high pressure
building in for Tuesday. Wind gusts on the ocean increase to
25-30 kt Monday night behind the front and should remain above
SCA on Tuesday. These winds will likely spread to the non-ocean
waters on Tuesday. Ocean seas may also build close to 5 ft by
Tuesday. SCA conditions may subside Tuesday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS/MW
HYDROLOGY...DS/MW