000
FXUS61 KOKX 101752
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1252 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area through the weekend before
weakening on Monday. A cold front passes Monday night followed
by high pressure through next Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure continues to build into the region from the west
this afternoon. A frontal wave traversing south of the area
will result in cloudy conditions. While sprinkles and/or light
rain may approach the area from the south, low level dry air
should prevent much if any from reaching the surface.
West winds this morning will back a bit more to the WSW this
afternoon at 10-15 mph. Mid level clouds cover will prevent
temperatures from rising much today as highs are only in the low
50s. Continued dry conditions are expected tonight with skies
becoming clearer as the disturbance moves offshore. Winds will
also veer to the NW the second half of the night as high
pressure builds in from the west. Lows in the 30s are expected.
The NYC metro will remain in the low 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure then continues to build into the area through the
weekend. The biggest impact will be falling temperature trend
through the weekend. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 50s
whereas strong CAA and a high pressure center approaching will
prevent temperatures on Sunday from climbing out of the middle 40s.
Temperatures Saturday night will be some of the coldest air thus far
this season with widespread temperatures in the 20s for the inland
areas and low 30s near the coast. The NYC metro may fall into the
low to middle 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes were made to the long term with the NBM
followed closely. Overall, the global models and ensemble means
agree on the pattern evolution through much of next week. Dry
conditions and below normal temperatures are expected Sunday night
through Tuesday. Temperatures trend upward middle to late week,
trending above normal by Thursday.
High pressure overhead Sunday night will lead to ideal radiational
cooling conditions with light winds and mostly clear skies. Sunday
night is expected to be the coldest night so far for Fall 2023 with
lows in the middle to upper 20s inland and low 30s near the coast.
Portions of the NYC and urban NE NJ metro could see their first
freeze of the season. The high pressure weakens on Monday and will
be quickly followed by a dry cold front passage Monday night. The
front is associated with an amplifying upper trough passage that
should amplify further to our east Tuesday and Wednesday. Rising
heights with a building ridge aloft and surface high pressure will
dominate the pattern Tuesday through Thursday.
Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 40s and low 50s.
Gusty NW winds, 20-30 mph, look likely on Tuesday with building high
pressure to our west. Highs in the low to middle 50s look reasonable
on Wednesday as the air mass begins to moderate. Highs should rise
further on Thursday reaching the upper 50s for most locations.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the west through the TAF period.
VFR.
WSW-SW flow 10-13 kt through the afternoon. An occasional gust
15-20 kt is possible. Winds back to the W and then NW tonight
with wind speeds under 10 kt. The flow remains NW on Saturday
morning and increases to 10-12 kt by mid-morning.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction may vary 20-30 degrees either side of forecast
at times today.
An occasional gust 15-20 kt possible this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday through Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. NW G20-25kt.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the weekend with a
decreasing pressure gradient, however, some gusts today through
Saturday night may approach 20 kt with seas rising to 3-4 feet.
A weak pressure gradient over the waters Sunday night into
Monday will lead to conditions below SCA levels. A cold front
passes through the waters Monday night with high pressure
building in for Tuesday. Wind gusts on the ocean increase to
25-30 kt Monday night behind the front and should remain above
SCA on Tuesday. These winds will likely spread to the non-ocean
waters on Tuesday. Ocean seas may also build close to 5 ft by
Tuesday. SCA conditions may subside Tuesday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MW
NEAR TERM...MW/DW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DS/MW
HYDROLOGY...DS/MW