000
FXUS61 KOKX 102015
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
315 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in from the west through the weekend. A
cold frontal passage Monday night will give way to high pressure
through the middle of the week. Low pressure may approach the
area late Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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An upper jet streak will move off to the southeast this evening
along with the cloud cover and skies will become clear fairly
quickly. An upper trough centered across eastern Canada will
work east with additional shortwave energy rotating to its south
across the Northeast. This will allow for gradual cold
advection as W winds this evening veer to the NW overnight.

While there will be clear skies, winds will stay up enough to
limit strong radiational cooling. Lows will be near normal,
ranging from the mid 30s inland, to the upper 30s and around 40
at the coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A dry, unseasonably cool weekend is on tap as high pressure
centered over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states builds
east. The high will move overhead on Sunday. Thus, looking for
mainly clear skies and northerly flow. Winds still look to be up
enough Saturday night to limit strong radiational cooling.

Highs on Saturday will be around 50 inland to the lower 50s at
the coast, cooling further into the mid and upper 40s for
Sunday. Lows Saturday night are forecast to drop into the upper
20s inland, around freezing at the coast, and lower to mid 30s
across the NYC metro.

Much of the growing season will have ended before Saturday night
with the exception of the NYC metro, which looks to stay just
above freezing. So not anticipating any freeze headlines at
this time.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Mainly dry weather in the extended.

Cold temps Sun night with a 1030s high over the region. Went blw the
NBM closer to a MAV/MET soln. Widespread frost and freeze conditions
are expected.

A swly flow develops on Mon with temps aloft rising. Not enough waa
however to produce rain or temps aoa climo. A cfp then Mon ngt. The
fcst is dry with little moisture to work with. Steeper lapse rates E
of the cwa closer to the h5 trof axis, so if this trends wwd, there
could be a chance for something isold or sct.

Good mixing on Tue behind to front, so temps could end up warmer
than Mon despite the overall colder airmass. Went with the NBM.

A gradual warming trend is then expected for the rest of the week.
Still dry until Fri, where low chances creep into the fcst. This is
due to an approaching upr trof and Atlc low. Impacts from one or the
other, or from a combination of both, are possible. Model timing
appears to be slowing, so Fri may end up dry with the bulk of the
sys impacting the cwa next weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west through the TAF period.

VFR.

WSW-SW flow 10-12 kt through the early evening. An occasional gust
15-20 kt is possible. Winds back to the W and then NW tonight with
wind speeds under 10 kt. The flow remains NW on Saturday morning and
increases to 10-12 kt by mid-morning.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An occasional gust 15-20 kt possible early this evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday through Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. NW G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the weekend as high
pressure builds in from the west. However, W winds around 15 kt
G20kt this evening will increase seas to 3 to 4 ft on the ocean,
highest west of Moriches Inlet. The gradient will then begin to
relax late tonight into Saturday as winds veer to the NW.

Winds and seas blw sca lvls Mon, then winds and seas pick up behind
a fropa Mon ngt and Tue. A sca will likely be needed on the ocean,
and is possible elsewhere. Winds and seas then most likely blw sca
lvls Wed and Thu, although SW flow on Thu could result in mrgnl
winds/seas on the ocean.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next
week.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW