000
FXUS61 KOKX 111651
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1151 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west through the weekend. A
cold frontal passage Monday night will give way to high pressure
through the middle of the week. Low pressure approaches late in
the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Based on latest satellite imagery, had to add more cloud cover
this afternoon across portions of the area as cold advection
stratocu has worked as far south as Long Island Sound. There is
some uncertainty to the extent and longevity as it works across
LI, NE NJ, and NYC this afternoon. At the very least, skies
will be partly cloudy at times, especially inland. In addition,
temperatures have been nudged up a bit based on obs.
Otherwise, a dry and cool weekend is on tap as high pressure
centered near the Great Lakes gradually builds east into the
region. NW winds this afternoon at 10-15 mph will diminish and
back to the N tonight. Highs will top out around 50 inland, and
in the lower to mid 50s elsewhere.
The growing season has already ended for most of the region, with
the exception of the NYC metro, which looks to stay several degrees
above freezing tonight. The light N wind overnight may limit
strong radiational cooling, but with a cold air mass in place,
lows should bottom out near or several degrees below freezing
for most, and mid 30s in the city.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure slides east into Quebec and New England by Sunday,
maintaining a northerly flow across the local region through the
remainder of the weekend. Temperatures on Sunday will drop about 5
degrees compared to Saturday, and may be the coolest day of the
season so far for some, with highs largely in the mid 40s. Some
high cirrus may attempt to build in as a disturbance passes well
to the south, otherwise, sunshine prevails once again.
Another chilly night expected into Monday, with perhaps the
coldest locales of the interior and LI Pine Barrens making it
down into the upper teens as winds lighten with the high
overhead. The remainder of the region looks to fall into the
20s and low 30s, though once again, the urban NYC metro should
largely remain just above freezing. Went with a blend of MAV/MET to
better capture the radiational cooling, but otherwise, blended
guidance was used for this update.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Stuck fairly close to the NBM with not much change.
Generally looking at dry conditions through much of the long term. A
cold front will approach on Monday, and push across the region
Monday night. The front should come through mainly dry, however can
not rule out a few isolated showers. Will keep the forecast dry for
now.
Behind the front, we are looking at a breezy day on Tuesday with
winds out of the NW as the pressure gradient tightens between a
departing low and arriving high pressure. Winds diminish Tuesday
night as high pressure slides overhead for Wednesday. The upper
level ridge and surface high slides east on Thursday. This will
allow the next frontal system to impact the region late in the week.
An upper level trough and associated cold front are expected to
approach from the west. Also, some models are showing an area
of low pressure over the Atlantic, which may interact with this
frontal boundary. So its possible the region could be impacted by
either one or both of these systems. It may take a few days for the
models to come into better agreement on exactly how the weekend will
play out.
Temperatures will remain in the upper 40s to middle 50s range Monday
through Wednesday, then a gradual warming trend is expected for the
end of the week, with highs in the middle and upper 50s to near 60
on Thursday and upper 50s and lower 60s on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through the TAF period.
VFR.
NW flow increasing this morning, with occasional gusts 15 to 20
kt developing late morning through the afternoon. Where there
was more confidence in the gusts, KEWR, and KTEB, KSWF, and
KGON, included in the forecast. However, gusts may be more
occasional at these terminals. Any gusts diminish late afternoon
and winds will veer more towards the north tonight and remain
through early Sunday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts 15-20 kt expected late morning through the
afternoon Saturday. Gusts more frequent at KEWR and KTEB, and
included in the forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday and Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. NW G20-25kt.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure
builds in from the north and west. Winds and seas will remain
below sca levels on Monday, then winds and seas increase behind
a cold frontal passage Monday night and Tue. A sca will likely
be needed on the ocean, and is possible elsewhere.
Winds and seas are then expected to remain below SCA levels
Wednesday and Thursday although SW flow on Thursday could result in
marginal winds/seas on the ocean. A better chance of SCA conditions
come Friday into Saturday as the waters may be impacted by a low
pressure system and cold front.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/JT
MARINE...BC/DR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DR