000 FXUS61 KOKX 112043 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 343 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the area through Sunday night. Low pressure north of the Great Lakes on Monday sends a frontal toward the area. A cold frontal passage Monday night will give way to high pressure through the middle of the week. Low pressure may impact the area by late Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A large area of high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes will continue to build toward the area. This will allow for skies to become clear with diminishing winds. An unseasonably cold airmass in place and decent radiational cooling will result in lows at or below freezing for much of the area, minus the NYC/NJ metro and western Long Island. The airmass is dry, but some frost is possible, especially inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will continue to build across the area through Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be about 10 degrees below normal in the mid to upper 40s with a light northerly flow. The high then moves over the area Sunday night with light winds and clear skies setting up another below normal night. Much of the area will be at or below freezing with the exception of the NYC metro. Southern Nassau County which is still considered to be in the growing could see a freeze. Right now, it looks really marginal and will hold off on any headlines. For Monday, there will be some moderation as temperatures warm a bit into the upper 40s and lower 50s, which is still several degrees below normal. High pressure moves offshore with a return SW flow developing by afternoon. A shearing mid level shortwave trough across the upper Great Lakes will drop into the Northeast, sending a weak cold front toward the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly dry weather until the end of the week. A cold frontal passage is still on track for Mon ngt. The 12Z GFS is drier than it has been, while the ECMWF produces some sct pcpn across the cwa as the upr trof dives thru. Stuck with the dry GFS scenario attm which is reflected in the NBM POPs. There is some room for adjustment if the modeling trends towards the ECMWF. Good mixing on Tue with nwly flow behind the front should yield around 50 or so, despite h85 dropping to around -5C. A warming trend is then expected thru Fri. Still dry thru Thu, then chances for rain Fri-Sat. Main period of activity looks to be centered on Fri ngt into Sat, but it is too far out to have confidence in the timing. The intensity of the sys still remains in question as well. It is yet to be determined whether it will be mainly just the srn stream, mainly just the nrn stream, or a bigger phased system. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure remains in control through the TAF period. VFR. NW flow 10-14 kt, with occasional gusts up to 20 kt through the afternoon. Where there was more confidence in the gusts, KEWR, and KTEB, KSWF, and KGON, included in the forecast. However, gusts may be more occasional at these terminals. Any gusts diminish late afternoon and winds will veer more towards the N tonight and remain through Sunday. Winds fall below 10 kt for most terminals overnight and remain below 10 kt through Sunday. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Occasional gusts up to 20 kt expected through the afternoon. Gusts more frequent at KEWR and KTEB, and included in the forecast. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday Afternoon and Monday: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. NW G20-25kt. Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north and west. Winds and seas will remain below sca levels on Monday, however, marginal sca conditions are possible Mon night and Tue due to a cold frontal passage. Best chances will be on the ocean. Winds and seas then fall blw sca criteria until possibly late Fri, when low pres begins to approach the area. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through Fri. There is a chance for some locally heavy rain Fri night into Sat depending on the track, timing, and intensity of a low pres sys. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JT MARINE...JMC/DW HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW