000
FXUS61 KOKX 112334
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
634 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area through Sunday night. Low
pressure north of the Great Lakes on Monday sends a frontal
toward the area. A cold frontal passage Monday night will give
way to high pressure through the middle of the week. Low
pressure may impact the area by late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Main change with this update was for hourly temperatures for the
next few hours as winds and/or clouds have kept spots away from
the city a little warmer than what was in the forecast. The
forecast otherwise is on track.

A large area of high pressure centered over the eastern Great
Lakes will continue to build toward the area. This will allow
for skies to become clear with diminishing winds. An unseasonably
cold airmass in place and decent radiational cooling will
result in lows at or below freezing for much of the area, minus
the NYC/NJ metro and western Long Island. The airmass is dry,
but some frost is possible, especially inland.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build across the area through
Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be about 10 degrees below
normal in the mid to upper 40s with a light northerly flow. The
high then moves over the area Sunday night with light winds and
clear skies setting up another below normal night. Much of the
area will be at or below freezing with the exception of the NYC
metro. Southern Nassau County which is still considered to be in
the growing could see a freeze. Right now, it looks really
marginal and will hold off on any headlines.

For Monday, there will be some moderation as temperatures warm a
bit into the upper 40s and lower 50s, which is still several
degrees below normal. High pressure moves offshore with a
return SW flow developing by afternoon. A shearing mid level
shortwave trough across the upper Great Lakes will drop into
the Northeast, sending a weak cold front toward the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly dry weather until the end of the week.

A cold frontal passage is still on track for Mon ngt. The 12Z GFS is
drier than it has been, while the ECMWF produces some sct pcpn
across the cwa as the upr trof dives thru. Stuck with the dry GFS
scenario attm which is reflected in the NBM POPs. There is some room
for adjustment if the modeling trends towards the ECMWF.

Good mixing on Tue with nwly flow behind the front should yield
around 50 or so, despite h85 dropping to around -5C.

A warming trend is then expected thru Fri. Still dry thru Thu, then
chances for rain Fri-Sat. Main period of activity looks to be
centered on Fri ngt into Sat, but it is too far out to have
confidence in the timing. The intensity of the sys still remains in
question as well. It is yet to be determined whether it will be
mainly just the srn stream, mainly just the nrn stream, or a bigger
phased system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control through the TAF period.

VFR.

N winds around 10kt or less through Sunday morning, diminishing
slightly in the afternoon, then moreso Sunday night.

 NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night and Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. NW G20-25kt.

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure
builds in from the north and west. Winds and seas will remain
below sca levels on Monday, however, marginal sca conditions
are possible Mon night and Tue due to a cold frontal passage.
Best chances will be on the ocean. Winds and seas then fall blw
sca criteria until possibly late Fri, when low pres begins to
approach the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Fri. There is a chance
for some locally heavy rain Fri night into Sat depending on the
track, timing, and intensity of a low pres sys.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW