000
FXUS61 KOKX 121747
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1247 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area through tonight, sliding
offshore on Monday. A cold frontal passage Monday night will give
way to high pressure through the middle of the week. Low pressure
may impact the area by late Friday into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry and cool conditions continue today as high pressure builds
east into the region. Skies have become mostly clear, with a
light northerly flow. A chilly air mass remains in place, BUFKIT
soundings prog 925 mb temps -2C to -4C today, which should
translate to highs in the mid to upper 40s, or about 5 to 10
degrees below normal for mid November. Sunshine prevails with
the nearby high, though its possible some limited stratocu
develops in the afternoon.
The high moves over the area late, and light winds and clear
skies set up another chilly night with efficient radiational
cooling. The coldest locales of the interior and LI Pine Barrens
could touch the upper teens, though most of the remainder of
the region looks to fall into the 20s and low 30s, with the
exception of the NYC metro. Considered a Freeze Watch for
southern Nassau Co, where the growing season continues, though
forecast lows at this time appear to remain just above the
freezing mark for the bulk of the zone. Though the air mass is
relatively dry, some frost development is likely overnight,
especially across the interior. Went with a MAV/MET blend for
lows.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For Monday, there will be some moderation as temperatures warm a
bit into the upper 40s and lower 50s, though still several
degrees below normal. High pressure moves offshore with a return
SW flow developing by afternoon.
Shearing mid level shortwave trough across the upper Great Lakes
will drop into the Northeast, sending a weak cold front toward
the area that moves through Monday night. It appears the fropa
will be mostly, if not entirely, dry for the region as best
forcing is off to the north. While a few rogue showers are
possible overnight, maintained a dry forecast everywhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Not much change in the long term and stuck fairly close to the NBM.
Mainly dry weather until the end of the week.
The long term period starts off rather breezy on Tuesday with winds
out of the NW as the pressure gradient tightens between a departing
low and arriving high pressure. Winds diminish Tuesday night as
upper level ridging and surface high pressure slides overhead for
Wednesday. The upper level ridge and surface high slides east on
Thursday. This will allow the next frontal system to impact the
region late in the week. An upper level trough and associated cold
front are expected to approach from the west. Also, models are
showing an area of low pressure over the Atlantic, which may
interact with this frontal boundary. So its possible the region
could be impacted by either one or both of these systems. It may
take another day or two for the models to come into better agreement
on exactly how next weekend will play out.
Temperatures will remain in the upper 40s to middle 50s range
Tuesday and Wednesday, then a gradual warming trend is expected for
the end of the week, with highs in the middle and upper 50s to near
60 on Thursday and upper 50s and lower 60s on Friday. Saturday highs
are forecast to be in the middle and upper 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds into the area tonight and then offshore on
Monday ahead of an approaching cold front.
VFR.
Winds will be northerly under 10 kt through tonight, becoming
light and variable Monday morning, then SW at 7-10kt in the
afternoon.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday Afternoon: VFR. SW G15kt.
Tuesday: VFR. NW G20-25kt.
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Chance MVFR or lower in showers. S G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the remainder of the
weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.
Marginal sca conditions are possible Monday evening through
Tuesday behind a cold frontal passage. Best chances will be on
the ocean. Winds and seas then fall below sca criteria until
possibly late Fri, when low pressure begins to approach the
area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Friday. There is a
chance for locally heavy rain Fri night into Sat depending on
the track, timing, and intensity of a low pressure system.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/JT
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/DR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DR