000
FXUS61 KOKX 122349
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
649 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the area tonight and then shifts offshore
on Monday. A weak cold frontal passage Monday night will give way to
high pressure through the middle of the week. A frontal system
will affect the area Friday Night into Saturday, with high
pressure returning Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains over the area tonight, with slight height
rises aloft. This will lead to great radiational cooling conditions
with clear skies and light winds in a dry airmass. Have dropped temps
across outlying areas a degree or two colder based on
observations trends. Widespread lower 20s across the interior
and LI Pine Barrens, mid 20s to around 30 across coastal CT and
Long Island and then mid 30s for the NJ/NYC metro area.
As for frost/freeze headlines, the only zones where the growing
season is ongoing are NYC, Hudson County and southern Nassau
County. Southern Nassau should see freezing temperatures late
tonight into early Mon morning, continuing the Freeze Warning.
For NYC and Hudson County, not expecting anything more than
patchy frost. The dewpoint depressions will likely be too high
for anything widespread enough to warrant a Frost Advisory.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure slides offshore on Monday. A mid-level shortwave
trough approaches from the northwest during the day and moves
through in the late evening along with an associated weak cold
front. During the day, ahead of the front, temperatures should reach
the upper 40s to low 50s. These highs are still below normal, but a
few degrees warmer than Sunday`s highs. With not much moisture
around, the front should move through mostly dry. However, with some
signal from the CAMs, did add slight chance of sprinkles for Monday
late afternoon through the late evening. Do not think any precip
will be measurable. The best chance at measurable precip will be
over far eastern New London and/or Suffolk County.
Lows Monday night will be much warmer than Sunday night given the SW
flow to start the night and then winds staying up behind the cold
frontal passage. No frost/freeze concerns for the zones where the
growing season is ongoing.
THe flow remain gusty through the day on Tuesday as the
pressure gradient remains tight with high pressure building in.
Winds should start to decrease by the second half of the day.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Nearly zonal upper flow for the mid week period under PAC jet
lifting across the northern tier of the country, while a weak and
broad southern shortwave slowly drifts east across the Gulf States.
Good agreement in a series of northern stream shortwaves gradually
building a longwave northern stream trough across the north Central
US late week, punctuated by a strong polar shortwave amplifying and
pivoting towards and thru the NE US Fri and Sat. Models solutions
have varying degrees of interaction with the southern shortwave
energy manifesting in considerable spread with evolution of a closed
low over SE Canada for the weekend into early next week.
At the surface, high pressure overhead Tue Night/Wed gradually
slides east Thu with moderating airmass through the time period. A
strong cold front, associated with a rapidly intensifying low
pressure system tracking northeast through Central Canada (in
response to approaching polar shortwave), approaches the region
Friday Night. This will bring next likelihood for rain shower
activity Fri Night/Sat. General agreement with low pressure
development along the cold front or phasing with developing southern
low pressure, with ensuing rapid intensification of low pressure as
it tracks up the northeast coast. Timing, track and magnitude of low
pressure intensification will depend on above mentioned
northern/southern stream interaction, which will determine whether
region sees a period of heavier rainfall on backside of low
pressure. At this time, GEFS, GEPS, ECE ensemble have less than 20%
prob of 1" of rain in 24 hours for this time period.
Improving conditions Sat night in wake of intensifying low, with
cold advection Sunday.
Temperatures will be near seasonable on Wed, gradually moderating to
several degrees above seasonable by Friday. A return to below
seasonable in wake of low pressure system on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds into the area tonight and then offshore on
Monday ahead of an approaching cold front.
VFR.
Winds will be northerly under 10 kt through tonight, becoming
light and variable Monday morning, then SW at 7-10kt in the
afternoon.
NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday night: VFR. SW G15kt in the evening.
Tuesday: VFR. NW G20-25kt.
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Chance MVFR or lower in showers. S G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA criteria expected through the first half of Monday night. NW
winds then pick up behind a cold frontal passage. Gusts around 25 kt
are likely on the ocean waters from late Monday night through
Tuesday. Gusts may also briefly touch 25 kt across the eastern Sound
and Peconic and Gardiners Bays on Tuesday. Ocean waves will largely
stay at 3-4 ft, but may briefly reach 5 ft Tuesday afternoon.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected mid to late week as high
pressure slides across the region. Next potential for SCA
conditions is Fri Night thru next weekend with increasing S/SE
winds and building wind waves ahead of approaching cold front
and then NE/offshore winds likely with coastal low development.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Friday. There is a low
probability for heavy rain Fri night into Sat contingent on the
track, timing, and intensity of a low pressure system.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/NV
NEAR TERM...JT/NV
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JT/NV
HYDROLOGY...JT/NV