000
FXUS61 KOKX 131151
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
651 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts offshore today. A weak cold front moves through
tonight, giving way to high pressure through the middle of the week.
A frontal system will affect the area Friday Night into Saturday,
with high pressure returning Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Coldest morning of the season so far, with most near or below the
freezing mark at sunrise. Parts of the far interior and even
here at the office managed to fall into the upper teens with a
calm wind and clear skies. Freeze Warning remains in place for
southern Nassau Co until 14Z. Temperatures quickly rebound into
the 40s by mid morning, and top out in the mid to upper 40s this
afternoon.
Synoptically, high pressure slides offshore today as a shearing mid-
level shortwave trough drops into the Northeast, sending a weak cold
front through the area tonight. Cloud cover should increase in the
afternoon ahead of the front, though with little moisture and weak
forcing, a predominantly dry fropa is expected this evening. Still
can`t rule out a rouge shower or a few sprinkles after 00Z, but
coverage should be limited.
Lows tonight will be much milder than last given the elevated flow
behind the fropa, ranging from around freezing in the interior, to
the low 40s in NYC. No frost/freeze concerns for the zones where the
growing season is ongoing.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Heights begin to climb on Tuesday as upper ridging over the Midwest
translates east. Gusty flow continues as the pressure gradient
remains tight with surface high pressure building in from the Ohio
Valley. Occasional gusts 20 to 25 mph through the first half of
the day can be expected before winds lighten.
Dry conditions prevail, though the cool NW wind should allow for
a fair amount of stratocu in the afternoon, especially inland.
Temperatures nudge upwards toward the lower 50s for most, falling
back into the 20s and 30s overnight, or about average for this
time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overall, no significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly
close to the NBM. Mainly dry weather until the end of the week.
The long term period starts off with upper level ridging and surface
high pressure over the region on Wednesday. The upper level ridge
and surface high slides east on Thursday. This will allow the next
frontal system to impact the region late Friday into Saturday.
A strong cold front, associated with a rapidly intensifying low
pressure system tracking northeast through Central Canada,
approaches the region Friday Night. This will bring next likelihood
for rain shower activity late Friday into Saturday. Forecast
models continue to indicate low pressure development along the cold
front or phasing with developing southern low pressure. As the front
interacts with the low, rapid intensification is expected, however
timing differences remain. The biggest question is does the
intensification start to occur over the region, or east of the
region as it tracks up the northeast coast. Details on timing, track
and magnitude of low pressure intensification still need to be
worked out and should become a bit more clear in the next day or two.
Improving conditions are expected Saturday night in wake of
intensifying low, with cold advection Sunday.
Temperatures will be near seasonable on Wed, gradually moderating to
several degrees above seasonable by Friday. A return to below
seasonable in wake of low pressure system on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure shifts offshore today ahead of an approaching cold
front that passes through tonight.
VFR.
Light and variable winds are expected for the morning push. By
mid to late morning, winds become southwesterly and increase to
near 10kt. Winds tonight become northwesterly behind a cold
front and speeds increase Tuesday morning with gusts into the
20-25kt range.
NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR. NW G20-25kt.
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Chance MVFR or lower in showers. S G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub-SCA criteria expected through this evening.
Cold frontal passage tonight will allow for an increasing NW
flow overnight, continuing through Tuesday. SCA was hoisted from
11Z Tue thru 3Z Wed for ocean waters where confidence is
highest in persistent 25 to 30 kt gusts. Elsewhere, gusts may
occasionally exceed 25 kt at times, but coverage and duration
appear limited. Will let day shift reassess if SCA is needed
here for a period of time Tuesday afternoon. Winds lighten as
high pressure builds overhead Tuesday night, ending small craft
conditions everywhere.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected mid to late week as high
pressure slides across the region. Next potential for SCA
conditions is Friday Night thru next weekend with increasing S/SE
winds and building wind waves ahead of approaching cold front
and then NE/offshore winds likely with coastal low development.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a low probability for heavy rain Fri night into Sat
contingent on the track, timing, and intensity of a low pressure
system.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...BC/DR