000
FXUS61 KOKX 131721
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1221 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts offshore today. A weak cold front moves through
tonight, giving way to high pressure through the middle of the week.
A frontal system will affect the area Friday Night into Saturday,
with high pressure returning Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Temperatures have risen above freezing across the region with
most values in the upper 30s to lower 40s near the 10am hour.
Sunny sky conditions are ongoing. Not much change was made to
forecast database, just some slight adjustments with
temperatures, dewpoints and cloud coverage.

Synoptically, high pressure slides offshore today as a shearing mid-
level shortwave trough drops into the Northeast, sending a weak cold
front through the area tonight. Cloud cover should increase in the
afternoon ahead of the front, though with little moisture and weak
forcing, a predominantly dry fropa is expected this evening. Still
can`t rule out a rouge shower or a few sprinkles after 00Z, but
coverage should be limited.

Lows tonight will be much milder than last given the elevated flow
behind the fropa, ranging from around freezing in the interior, to
the low 40s in NYC. No frost/freeze concerns for the zones where the
growing season is ongoing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Heights begin to climb on Tuesday as upper ridging over the Midwest
translates east. Gusty flow continues as the pressure gradient
remains tight with surface high pressure building in from the Ohio
Valley. Occasional gusts 20 to 25 mph through the first half of
the day can be expected before winds lighten.

Dry conditions prevail, though the cool NW wind should allow for
a fair amount of stratocu in the afternoon, especially inland.
Temperatures nudge upwards toward the lower 50s for most, falling
back into the 20s and 30s overnight, or about average for this
time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overall, no significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly
close to the NBM.  Mainly dry weather until the end of the week.

The long term period starts off with upper level ridging and surface
high pressure over the region on Wednesday. The upper level ridge
and surface high slides east on Thursday. This will allow the next
frontal system to impact the region late Friday into Saturday.

A strong cold front, associated with a rapidly intensifying low
pressure system tracking northeast through Central Canada,
approaches the region Friday Night. This will bring next likelihood
for rain shower activity late Friday into Saturday. Forecast
models continue to indicate low pressure development along the cold
front or phasing with developing southern low pressure. As the front
interacts with the low, rapid intensification is expected, however
timing differences remain. The biggest question is does the
intensification start to occur over the region, or east of the
region as it tracks up the northeast coast. Details on timing, track
and magnitude of low pressure intensification still need to be
worked out and should become a bit more clear in the next day or two.

Improving conditions are expected Saturday night in wake of
intensifying low, with cold advection Sunday.

Temperatures will be near seasonable on Wed, gradually moderating to
several degrees above seasonable by Friday. A return to below
seasonable in wake of low pressure system on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure shifts offshore today. A weak cold front passes through the terminals this evening into tonight, with a few sprinkles possible. High pressure builds to the west Tuesday. VFR. S to SW winds shift to W late this evening, then NW. NW winds increase to around 15kt with gusts 20-25kt, and occasionally higher, especially at the NYC metro terminals. NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments are expected. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday afternoon: VFR. NW G20-25kt. Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. Friday: Chance MVFR or lower in showers. S G15-20kt. Saturday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers, in the morning. Improving during the afternoon. W G15-20kt, becoming NW. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... Sub-SCA criteria expected through this evening. Cold frontal passage tonight will allow for an increasing NW flow overnight, continuing through Tuesday. SCA was hoisted from 11Z Tue thru 3Z Wed for ocean waters where confidence is highest in persistent 25 to 30 kt gusts. Elsewhere, gusts may occasionally exceed 25 kt at times, but coverage and duration appear limited. Will let day shift reassess if SCA is needed here for a period of time Tuesday afternoon. Winds lighten as high pressure builds overhead Tuesday night, ending small craft conditions everywhere. Sub-SCA conditions are expected mid to late week as high pressure slides across the region. Next potential for SCA conditions is Friday Night thru next weekend with increasing S/SE winds and building wind waves ahead of approaching cold front and then NE/offshore winds likely with coastal low development. && .HYDROLOGY... There is a low probability for heavy rain Fri night into Sat contingent on the track, timing, and intensity of a low pressure system. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/DR NEAR TERM...JM/DR SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...MET MARINE...BC/JM HYDROLOGY...BC/DR