discussion on 2023-11-13

000
FXUS61 KOKX 131906
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
206 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure shifts offshore through this afternoon. A weak
cold front moves through tonight, giving way to high pressure
through the middle of the week. A frontal system will affect the
area Friday Night into Saturday, with high pressure returning
Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Clouds are increasing from the north and west ahead of a weak
cold front. Echoes of reflectivity are evident on Doppler radar.
However, with large dewpoint depressions, rainfall is likely
evaporating before reaching the ground. Low level moisture is
expected to increase late this afternoon with a few possible
rain showers or sprinkles as the cold front gets closer to the
region.

Temperatures on track without much of any significant change to
the forecast database for the rest of today. It appears high
temperatures will still be in the range of mid 40s to around 50.

For tonight, with high pressure offshore and weakening, initial
low level winds will be southwest. An area of low pressure and a
cold front from Eastern Ontario traverses the eastern half of
the region. Winds transition to more of a west to northwest flow
behind the low later tonight.

Again, could have a few rain showers or sprinkles with the front
and low passage with otherwise mainly dry conditions.

Winds tonight staying up will mitigate radiational cooling.
Clouds are expected to remain with cyclonic flow aloft so this
will lessen radiational cooling as well.

Forecast soundings indicate a warm layer between 1000 and 850
mb with temperatures a few degrees C above freezing. This will
keep the precipitation type rain. Surface temperatures this
evening are also expected range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Heights begin to climb on Tuesday as upper ridging over the Midwest
translates east. Gusty flow continues as the pressure gradient
remains tight with surface high pressure building in from the Ohio
Valley. Occasional gusts 20 to 25 mph through the first half of
the day can be expected before winds lighten.

Dry conditions prevail, though the cool NW wind should allow for
a fair amount of stratocu in the afternoon, especially inland.
Temperatures nudge upwards toward the lower 50s for most, falling
back into the 20s and 30s overnight, or about average for this
time of year.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overall, no significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly
close to the NBM. Mainly dry weather until the end of the week.

The long term period starts off with upper level ridging and surface
high pressure over the region on Wednesday. The upper level ridge
and surface high slides east on Thursday. This will allow the next
frontal system to impact the region late Friday into Saturday.

A strong cold front, associated with a rapidly intensifying low
pressure system tracking northeast through Central Canada,
approaches the region Friday Night. This will bring next likelihood
for rain shower activity late Friday into Saturday. Forecast
models continue to indicate low pressure development along the cold
front or phasing with developing southern low pressure. As the front
interacts with the low, rapid intensification is expected, however
timing differences remain. The biggest question is does the
intensification start to occur over the region, or east of the
region as it tracks up the northeast coast. Details on timing, track
and magnitude of low pressure intensification still need to be
worked out and should become a bit more clear in the next day or two.

Improving conditions are expected Saturday night in wake of
intensifying low, with cold advection Sunday.

Temperatures will be near seasonable on Wed, gradually moderating to
several degrees above seasonable by Friday. A return to below
seasonable in wake of low pressure system on Sunday.

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure shifts offshore today. A weak cold front passes
through the terminals this evening into tonight, with a few
sprinkles possible. High pressure builds to the west Tuesday.

VFR.

S to SW winds shift to W late this evening, then NW. NW winds
increase to around 15kt with gusts 20-25kt, and occasionally
higher, especially at the NYC metro terminals.

NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday afternoon: VFR. NW G20-25kt.

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Chance MVFR or lower in showers. S G15-20kt.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers, in the morning.
Improving during the afternoon. W G15-20kt, becoming NW.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Conditions on the waters initially are below SCA and should
remain that way through this evening. Overnight, winds increase
behind a cold front. Gusts to 20 kt develop and some occasional
gusts to 25 kt will be possible late but the 25 kt gusts will
be more into the timeframe of Tuesday.

A steep pressure gradient between low pressure well out in the
Atlantic and high pressure to the west, will result in gusty NW
flow Tuesday. Gusts are expected to reach 25 to 30 kt on the
ocean waters and will be less across the non-ocean waters but
some occasional 25 kt gusts on the non-ocean waters can be
expected. With confidence higher on the ocean SCA conditions
occurring in the forecast, the ocean zones already have SCA in
effect for Tuesday.

Winds lighten as high pressure builds overhead Tuesday night,
ending small craft conditions eventually for all forecast waters.
Ocean SCA conditions linger into the evening before subsiding
below.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected mid to late week as high
pressure slides across the region. Next potential for SCA
conditions is Friday Night thru next weekend with increasing S/SE
winds and building wind waves ahead of approaching cold front
and then NE/offshore winds likely with coastal low development.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a low probability for heavy rain Fri night into Sat
contingent on the track, timing, and intensity of a low pressure
system.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-
353-355.

SYNOPSIS...BC/DR
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/DR