000
FXUS61 KOKX 132335
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
635 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to move offshore and weaken tonight. A weak
cold front and wave of low pressure traverses the area tonight from
Southeast Canada. A new area of high pressure then builds in from
the west Tuesday through Tuesday night, eventually moving offshore
on Wednesday. High pressure off the East Coast drifts east
Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front and coast coastal
storm affect the area Friday night through Saturday. High
pressure builds in for the second half of next weekend into the
beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast is on track. Rain showers or sprinkles are making there
way through the NYC metro area as of 6 pm, and will tack
southeast through the evening. A rain/snow mix was observed in
northeast NJ in Mount Holly`s forecast area, so it`s not out of
the question to see a melting snowflake or two with any of the
heavier precipitation (not that the precipitation will be all
that heavy given large dew point depressions across the region).
Previous discussion follows.
For tonight, with high pressure offshore and weakening, initial
low level winds will be southwest. An area of low pressure and
a cold front from Eastern Ontario traverses the eastern half of
the region. Winds transition to more of a west to northwest flow
behind the low later tonight.
Could have a few rain showers or sprinkles with the front and
low passage with otherwise mainly dry conditions going through
this evening. Forecast soundings indicate a warm layer between
1000 and 850 mb with temperatures a few degrees C above
freezing. This will keep the precipitation type rain. Surface
temperatures this evening are also expected range from the mid
30s to lower 40s.
Winds tonight staying up will mitigate radiational cooling. Clouds
are expected to remain with cyclonic flow aloft so this will lessen
radiational cooling as well.
The formation of frost will be limited to patchy coverage. Some
locations are forecast to have some patchy frost, mainly across some
parts of the interior, overnight.
Temperatures further lower overnight to the low 30s to near 40. For
locations still having an active growing season(Southern Nassau NY,
NYC, and Hudson NJ), the lows will be in the upper 30s to around 40.
Outside of some parts of Hudson NJ where there is forecast to have
patchy frost, no other frost for these aforementioned areas is
expected.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong high pressure builds in from the west Tuesday through Tuesday
night. This strong high pressure area will eventually move offshore
on Wednesday.
Mid level ridging and negative vorticity advection will keep sky
conditions mostly clear Tuesday through Wednesday. However, a steep
pressure gradient between the high and low pressure well out into
the Atlantic will keep a gusty northerly flow for Tuesday. Initial
low level cold air advection early in the day will be weakening and
eventually become more warm air advection. Downslope flow with the
northerly flow will allow for coastal sites to get into lower 50s
for high temperatures with upper 40s across the interior for high
temperatures. The forecast highs are a combination of MET, MAV
and NBM guidance.
The northerly flow will eventually weaken with warmer air advecting
in at 850mb as ridging continues Tuesday night. With center of high
pressure moving into the region by early Wednesday, winds will
diminish late Tuesday night and more efficient radiational cooling
can be expected.
The relatively colder MET guidance was used for the low temperature
forecast Tuesday night. The forecast lows range from the low to mid
20s across parts of the interior and rural sections of Eastern Long
Island to upper 30s along the parts of the immediate coast as well
as throughout NYC. Compared to Monday night, Tuesday night is
expected to have quite a bit more frost formation. Much of the
forecast region is forecast to have areas of frost develop.
Some parts of NYC as well as Hudson NJ and Southern Nassau NY are
forecast to reach into mid 30s with frost formation forecast. Since
these zones are still in an active growing season, once forecast
gets within 24 hours, parts of the aforementioned area could have
potential for frost advisories with subsequent forecasts.
For Wednesday, light winds in the morning will eventually increase
and become more southerly in the afternoon. With limited vertical
mixing, forecast high temperatures will be similar to those of the
previous day, ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Again, a
blend of MAV, MET, and NBM guidance was used.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tranquil weather expected from Wednesday night through the day
Friday as surface high pressure drifts east over the northwestern
Atlantic. Deep layered ridging and rising heights will mean warmer
than normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday, with highs in the
upper 50 to lower 60s.
An amplifying upper level trough is expected to dive south from the
northern Plains state Thursday night into Friday. At the same time,
low pressure will develop and intensify over the Southeast U.S.
Coast along the subtropical jet. Phasing of the northern and
southern jets looks to occur sometime Friday night, allowing for
some potentially rapid intensification of the coastal storm while
the cold front approaches the area from the west. Guidance show the
low to pass well south and east of the region. However there are of
course some uncertainties this far out with the track of the storm,
though, which means a difference in rain amounts. The ECMWF is
closer to the coast, but weaker, while the GFS is much stronger with
and farther east. Stuck fairly close to NBM given uncertainties.
Upper level trough remain over the Great Lakes region for Sunday
into the beginning of next week as high pressure builds in at the
surface. Cloud coverage may be more than what is currently in the
forecast given cold pool aloft and the upper level trough over the
region. Cold air advection behind the front will allow temperatures
to drop to at or slightly below normal for this time of year for
Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold passes through tonight with a few sprinkles possible.
High pressure builds to the west Tuesday.
VFR.
Light SW winds shift W later this evening, then NW overnight
while increasing slightly. NW winds increase to 15-20kt with
gusts around 25kt on Tuesday, with occasionally higher gusts
possible, especially at the NYC metro terminals.
NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds may be light and variable through 03z. If so, winds would
probably favor SW to W.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: VFR. NW G20-25kt possible early.
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Chance MVFR or lower in showers. S G15-20kt.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers, showers ending with
conditions improving late in the day. W G15-20kt, becoming NW.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions on the waters initially are below SCA and should
remain that way through this evening. Overnight, winds increase
behind a cold front. Gusts to 20 kt develop and some occasional
gusts to 25 kt will be possible late.
A steep pressure gradient between low pressure well out in the
Atlantic and high pressure to the west, will result in gusty NW
flow Tuesday. Gusts are expected to reach 25 to 30 kt on the
ocean waters and will be less across the non-ocean waters but
25 kt gusts on the non-ocean waters can be expected at times.
RAP and GFS Bufkit soundings show good agreement with 25kt gusts
on the LI Sound for Tuesday.
Winds will decrease Tuesday night as high pressure eventually
moves overhead. Ocean SCA wind gusts linger into the evening
before subsiding below SCA thresholds.
Conditions then remain below SCA thresholds for the rest of
Tuesday night and through Wednesday with a weak pressure
gradient in place.
Seas are forecast to remain below 5 ft through Wednesday.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected mid to late week as high pressure
slides across the region. Next potential for SCA conditions is
Friday Night thru next weekend with increasing S/SE winds and
building waves ahead of approaching cold front and then NE/offshore
winds likely with coastal low development. Waves on Saturday could
build to 5 to 12 ft on the ocean waters, and up to 9 ft are possible
at the sound entrance.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With high astronomical levels with recent new moon, a few
locations along South Shore Bays and Western LI Sound coastline
could touch minor coastal flood benchmarks with early Wednesday
high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM/JP
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...