000
FXUS61 KOKX 141216
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
716 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will produce fair weather through Thursday. A
cold front approaches on Friday. The cold front and coastal
storm affect the area Friday night through Saturday. High
pressure builds in for the second half of next weekend into the
beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast generally on track this morning. One thing to note,
some very light precipitation is moving through eastern CT. This
area continues to weaken and should be over within the next hour
or two at most. Most of the area is observing temperatures
above freezing, however there may be a few isolated locations
where ground temperatures remain right at freezing. As a result,
some patchy icy spots may develop.
Otherwise, A cold front will swing thru the area this mrng.
Gusty nwly flow thru this aftn behind the front. The fropa is
expected to be mostly dry with the strongest dpva north of the
cwa. A well mixed day with high temps around 50.
A 1030s high builds over the area tngt. Winds should decouple,
except perhaps spots like Montauk right on the water. As a
result, went blw the NBM for low temps.
A light swly flow develops on Wed. H85 temps around 10 degrees
warmer, but a lack of deep mixing will only bring highs a couple
of degrees warmer than today. The NBM seemed reasonable and was
accepted for temps. Some high clouds can be expected both from
the nrn and srn streams.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Decreasing high clouds Wed ngt, but the light swly flow should
keep all but the interior from max radiational cooling
potential. As a result, the NBM with the usual local
adjustments was used.
Warmer on Thu due to better mixing on wly flow along with a
slightly warmer airmass in general. There could even be some sea
breezes along the shore in the aftn. The NBM suggests temps in
the lower 60s in the normally warmest swrn areas, with upr 50s
elsewhere. This was pretty close to the MEX guidance, so it was
used for the fcst.
Remaining dry Thu night. Perhaps some increasing high clouds,
but not enough to go abv the NBM guidance attm. Nevertheless, it
will be the warmest night of the week thus far with dewpoints in
the 40s. No fog included in the fcst yet, but there could be
some depending on the strength of the wind, particularly in the
river valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the previous forecast/NBM guidance.
An amplifying upper level trough is expected to dive south from the
northern Plains state Friday. At the same time, low pressure will
develop and intensify over the Southeast U.S. Coast along the
subtropical jet. Phasing of the northern and southern jets looks to
occur sometime Friday night or Saturday morning. Once it does, rapid
intensification of the coastal storm is expected while the cold
front approaches the area from the west. 00z forecast guidances
continues to show the low passing east of the region, with the bulk
of the precipitation remaining out of the CWA, however a slight
shift in the timing could change this. Stuck fairly close to NBM
given uncertainties.
Upper level trough remain over the region for Sunday into the
beginning of next week as high pressure builds in at the surface.
Cloud coverage may be more than what is currently in the forecast
given cold pool aloft and the upper level trough over the region.
Cold air advection behind the front will allow temperatures to drop
to at or slightly below normal for this time of year for Sunday and
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold slides further offshore this morning with high
pressure building in through the day.
VFR. W to NW winds near 10 kt, increasing and becoming gusty toward
the end of the morning push as they veer more NW. Winds eventually
increasing to 15-20kt with gusts 25-30kt by noon. Can not rule out
an occasional higher gusts possible. Gusts are expected to end
around 00z, with winds falling below 10kt after midnight
tonight. Late tonight, winds will become light and variable
before becoming southerly late Wednesday morning.
NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds should be prevailing north of 310 magnetic by the time
frequent gusts begin this morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Chance MVFR or lower in showers. S G15-20kt.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers, showers ending with
conditions improving late in the day. W G15-20kt, becoming NW.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect for today due to gusty NW winds on all
waters, and into this eve on the ocean. Possible early
cancellation on the ocean per the latest guidance. Winds and
waves blw sca lvls Wed-Thu.
Next potential for SCA conditions is Friday Night thru next weekend
with increasing S/SE winds and building waves ahead of approaching
cold front and then NE/offshore winds likely with coastal low
development. Waves on Saturday could build to 5 to 12 ft on the
ocean waters, and up to 9 ft are possible at the sound entrance.
SCA conditions are expected through early next week with seas at
or above 5ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With high astronomical levels with recent new moon, a few
locations along South Shore Bays and Western LI Sound coastline
could touch minor coastal flood benchmarks with early Wednesday
high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...