000
FXUS61 KOKX 141456
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
956 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the west through Tuesday night,
eventually moving offshore on Wednesday. The high drifts farther
east Wednesday night through Friday. The cold front and coastal
storm affect the area Friday night through Saturday. High
pressure builds in for the second half of next weekend into the
beginning of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minor adjustments made to forecast database today with cloud
coverage and temperatures. Forecast generally on track.
Gusty NW flow is expected through this afternoon behind the
cold front. A well mixed day with high temps from the upper 40s
to lower 50s. Downslope flow will make for relatively warmer
temperatures along the coast.
A 1030s high builds over the area tngt. Winds should decouple,
except perhaps spots like Montauk right on the water. As a
result, went blw the NBM for low temps. With efficient
radiational cooling with very light winds and clear sky
conditions, would expect more frost formation especially across
the interior and rural sections of the region.
A light swly flow develops on Wed. H85 temps around 10 degrees
warmer, but a lack of deep mixing will only bring highs a couple
of degrees warmer than today. The NBM seemed reasonable and was
accepted for temps. Some high clouds can be expected both from
the nrn and srn streams.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Decreasing high clouds Wed ngt, but the light swly flow should
keep all but the interior from max radiational cooling
potential. As a result, the NBM with the usual local
adjustments was used.
Warmer on Thu due to better mixing on wly flow along with a
slightly warmer airmass in general. There could even be some sea
breezes along the shore in the aftn. The NBM suggests temps in
the lower 60s in the normally warmest swrn areas, with upr 50s
elsewhere. This was pretty close to the MEX guidance, so it was
used for the fcst.
Remaining dry Thu night. Perhaps some increasing high clouds,
but not enough to go abv the NBM guidance attm. Nevertheless, it
will be the warmest night of the week thus far with dewpoints in
the 40s. No fog included in the fcst yet, but there could be
some depending on the strength of the wind, particularly in the
river valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the previous forecast/NBM guidance.
An amplifying upper level trough is expected to dive south from the
northern Plains state Friday. At the same time, low pressure will
develop and intensify over the Southeast U.S. Coast along the
subtropical jet. Phasing of the northern and southern jets looks to
occur sometime Friday night or Saturday morning. Once it does, rapid
intensification of the coastal storm is expected while the cold
front approaches the area from the west. 00z forecast guidances
continues to show the low passing east of the region, with the bulk
of the precipitation remaining out of the CWA, however a slight
shift in the timing could change this. Stuck fairly close to NBM
given uncertainties.
Upper level trough remain over the region for Sunday into the
beginning of next week as high pressure builds in at the surface.
Cloud coverage may be more than what is currently in the forecast
given cold pool aloft and the upper level trough over the region.
Cold air advection behind the front will allow temperatures to drop
to at or slightly below normal for this time of year for Sunday and
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure builds over the area today and remains tonight
into Wednesday morning.
VFR. Gusty NW winds continue through this afternoon, with gusts
generally north of 310 magnetic, and veering toward NNW late in
the day as gusts begin to diminish. Can not rule out an
occasional higher gust, especially until around 16Z. Gusts are
expected to end around 00z, with winds falling below 10kt after
midnight tonight. Late tonight, winds will become light and
variable before becoming southerly late Wednesday morning.
NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusty winds remain north of 310 magnetic through the day,
becoming 330 late this afternoon as gusts diminish.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Chance MVFR or lower in showers. S G15-20kt.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers, showers ending with
conditions improving late in the day. W G15-20kt, becoming NW.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect for today due to gusty NW winds on all
waters, and into this eve on the ocean. Possible early
cancellation on the ocean per the latest guidance. Winds and
waves blw sca lvls Wed-Thu.
Next potential for SCA conditions is Friday Night thru next weekend
with increasing S/SE winds and building waves ahead of approaching
cold front and then NE/offshore winds likely with coastal low
development. Waves on Saturday could build to 5 to 12 ft on the
ocean waters, and up to 9 ft are possible at the sound entrance.
SCA conditions are expected through early next week with seas at
or above 5ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With high astronomical levels with recent new moon, a few
locations along South Shore Bays and Western LI Sound coastline
could touch minor coastal flood benchmarks with early Wednesday
high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...BC/JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...