000
FXUS61 KOKX 141822
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
122 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the west today through tonight,
eventually moving offshore on Wednesday. High pressure will
continue moving offshore Wednesday night through Thursday. The
high drifts farther offshore Thursday night through Friday. The
cold front and coastal storm affect the area Friday night
through Saturday. High pressure builds in for the second half of
next weekend into the beginning of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Increased clouds this afternoon into early this evening in the
forecast database. Forecast overall remains on track. However,
cloud coverage will be on a decreasing trend overall going into
early this evening.
Strong high pressure builds in from the west through tonight.
Mid level ridging will provide subsidence and keep sky conditions
mostly clear later this afternoon through tonight. However, a
steep pressure gradient between the high and low pressure well
out into the Atlantic will keep gusty NW flow. Downslope flow
with the northerly flow will allow for coastal sites to get into
lower 50s for high temperatures with upper 40s across the
interior for high temperatures.
The northerly flow will eventually weaken with warmer air advecting
in at 850mb as ridging continues tonight. With center of high
pressure moving into the region by early Wednesday, winds will
diminish late tonight with boundary layer decoupling. More
efficient radiational cooling can be expected as a result. This
will convey a more vast range of low temperatures late tonight
into early Wednesday morning spatially across the region.
The relatively colder MET and ECS guidance were used for the low
temperature forecast tonight with some further adjustments downward
across the interior and rural areas, including Pine Barrens of Long
Island. The forecast lows range from the lower 20s across parts of
the interior and rural sections of Eastern Long Island to upper 30s
along the parts of the immediate coast as well as much of NYC.
Compared to Monday night, tonight is expected to have quite a bit
more frost formation. Much of the forecast region is forecast to
have frost develop. Widespread frost is expected across much of
the interior and Pine Barrens of Long Island.
In areas where growing season is still active (Hudson NJ, Southern
Nassau NY and NYC), the frost is only expected for a part of the
area with overall patchy coverage, not enough to warrant an
advisory. Lows in these areas will range from the upper 30s to near
40.
The strong high pressure area will eventually move offshore on
Wednesday.
Mid level ridging and negative vorticity advection will keep
subsidence and for sky conditions to remain mostly clear Wednesday.
Light winds Wednesday morning will eventually increase and become
more southwesterly in the afternoon. With limited vertical mixing,
forecast high temperatures will be similar to those of the previous
day, ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s but with some mid 50s
for parts of NYC and Northeast NJ.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Decreasing high clouds Wed ngt, but the light swly flow should
keep all but the interior from max radiational cooling
potential. As a result, the NBM with the usual local
adjustments was used.
Warmer on Thu due to better mixing on wly flow along with a
slightly warmer airmass in general. There could even be some sea
breezes along the shore in the aftn. The NBM suggests temps in
the lower 60s in the normally warmest swrn areas, with upr 50s
elsewhere. This was pretty close to the MEX guidance, so it was
used for the fcst.
Remaining dry Thu night. Perhaps some increasing high clouds,
but not enough to go abv the NBM guidance attm. Nevertheless, it
will be the warmest night of the week thus far with dewpoints in
the 40s. No fog included in the fcst yet, but there could be
some depending on the strength of the wind, particularly in the
river valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the previous forecast/NBM guidance.
An amplifying upper level trough is expected to dive south from the
northern Plains state Friday. At the same time, low pressure will
develop and intensify over the Southeast U.S. Coast along the
subtropical jet. Phasing of the northern and southern jets looks to
occur sometime Friday night or Saturday morning. Once it does, rapid
intensification of the coastal storm is expected while the cold
front approaches the area from the west. 00z forecast guidances
continues to show the low passing east of the region, with the bulk
of the precipitation remaining out of the CWA, however a slight
shift in the timing could change this. Stuck fairly close to NBM
given uncertainties.
Upper level trough remain over the region for Sunday into the
beginning of next week as high pressure builds in at the surface.
Cloud coverage may be more than what is currently in the forecast
given cold pool aloft and the upper level trough over the region.
Cold air advection behind the front will allow temperatures to drop
to at or slightly below normal for this time of year for Sunday and
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure builds over the area this afternoon and remains
into Wednesday afternoon.
VFR. Gusty NW winds continue through this afternoon, with gusts
generally north of 310 magnetic, and veering toward NNW late in
the day as gusts begin to diminish. Gusts may be diminishing and
ending an hour or so earlier than forecast. Northerly winds
diminish and become light and variable late. A southerly
develops late Wednesday morning.
NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusty winds remain north of 310 magnetic through the day,
becoming 330 late this afternoon as gusts diminish. Gusts may
end an hour or so earlier than forecast. Winds at KLGA may
become 330 to 340 late in the afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday: VFR.
Friday: VFR early, lowering to MVFR or lower in showers during
the afternoon. S G15-20kt.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers, showers ending with
conditions improving late in the day. NW G15-25kt.
Sunday: VFR. W G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA remains across all forecast waters through the rest of the
afternoon. For this evening until 10PM, the SCA continues on
the ocean due to some residual SCA gusts. Otherwise, non-ocean
waters are expected to have sub-SCA conditions.
A relaxing pressure gradient with high pressure moving overhead
will keep sub-SCA conditions on all waters late this evening
through Wednesday morning.
The pressure gradient increases Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday night with high pressure moving offshore and a
frontal system passing well to the north of the area. Gusts up
to 20 kt are expected during this period with some occasional
gusts up to 25 kt possible.
Next potential for SCA conditions is Friday Night thru next weekend
with increasing S/SE winds and building waves ahead of approaching
cold front and then NE/offshore winds likely with coastal low
development. Waves on Saturday could build to 5 to 12 ft on the
ocean waters, and up to 9 ft are possible at the sound entrance.
SCA conditions are expected through early next week with seas at
or above 5ft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With high astronomical levels with recent new moon, a few
locations along South Shore Bays and Western LI Sound coastline
could touch minor coastal flood benchmarks with early Wednesday
high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...