000
FXUS61 KOKX 151049
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
549 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will give way to a low pressure/frontal system
combo for Friday night and Saturday. High pressure builds into
the region behind the cold front for the second half of next
weekend into the beginning of next week. Another low pressure
system is expected to impact the region during the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The fcst is on track. High clouds can be expected today, with
the current stlt supporting the modeling. Winds come around to
the SW by late in the day as the 1030 high drifts SE of the fcst
area, bringing in a little llvl moisture.
The high clouds are progged to exit after midnight. This could
provide a window for some better cooling, as well as some patchy
fog development. Main limiting factors to both are the wind,
especially coastal areas. With dewpoints in the 30s and 40s
however, did include some patchy fog in areas away from the
immediate shore and in the river valleys. If conditions end up
just right, there could be some patchy fzfg in the interior.
The NBM with local adjustments was used for temps thru the
period. Temps across the interior could verify lower than fcst
based on the MET, but with the higher dewpoints, did not go
colder attm.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thu into Fri is continued dry with a warming trend. All areas
should reach the 60s by Fri, with the usual hot spots in the
lower 60s already on Thu. Sea breezes are possible Thu aftn if
the flow at h85 weakens blw 15kt.
The main fcst challenge remains the offshore low and approaching
front Fri night. There is still considerable spread wrt the
exact evolution and timing of the sys. The features of note are
an approaching nrn stream 120+ kt h3 jet, and a srn stream low
over the Atlc with subtropical moisture. Regardless of how the
storm evolves, the trends favor dry wx during the day on Fri,
with rain developing overnight Fri. Best chance for heavier rain
is aft 4-6Z Sat. This is still likely prior to the storm
wrapping up if indeed it does so. The NBM was used for pops,
which does have some low chances for Fri aftn wrn areas, then
70-80 percent Fri ngt which seams reasonable. Subsequent fcsts
may need to pull pops completely during the day Fri if the
trends hold.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will pass through the region early Saturday. Meanwhile,
a coastal low will pass east of the area. It appears that the
interaction between these two systems wont occur until east of the
region. As the front moves across the region from west to east, POPS
gradually diminish from late morning through the early afternoon.
POPs for much of the region on Saturday will remain at chance and by
midday, most of the precipitation will have moved off to the east.
Upper level trough remain over the region for Sunday into the
beginning of next week as high pressure builds in at the surface.
Cloud coverage may be more than what is currently in the forecast
given cold pool aloft and the upper level trough over the region.
Cold air advection behind the front will allow temperatures to drop
to at or slightly below normal for this time of year for Sunday and
Monday.
Another upper level trough and low pressure system will approach on
Tuesday, and impact the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. It is
still a week away and as usual with these events 6-7 days out, there
are timing differences with the forecast models. Temperatures do
moderate a bit late in the long term, back to more seasonable levels
by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the west through morning before moving
offshore by early afternoon.
VFR. Light N winds will become light and variable in the morning,
then become S/SW at 7 to 10 kt from late morning into early
afternoon. Tonight, winds will gradually veer around to the WSW and
diminish.
NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: VFR.
Friday: VFR, lowering to MVFR or lower in showers late day into the
evening. S G15-20kt.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers, showers ending with
conditions improving late in the day. NW G15-25kt.
Sunday: VFR. W G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain blw SCA lvls thru the day
on Fri, despite winds around 20kt and seas around 4 ft on the
ocean tngt. Conditions worsen Fri ngt as low pres approaches. A
SCA may be needed.
SCA conditions are expected this weekend with NE/offshore winds
likely. Waves on Saturday could build to 5 to 12 ft on the ocean
waters, and up to 9 ft are possible at the sound entrance. SCA
conditions are expected through early next week with seas at or
above 5ft. Another round of SCA conditions are likely for the middle
of next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With high astronomical levels due to the recent new moon, a few
locations along South Shore Bays, mainly in Southern Nassau NY
are expected to approach or just touch the minor coastal flood
benchmarks during their high tide this morning. Roughly around
1.5 ft of surge is needed for minor coastal flooding on average.
There is a coastal flood statement in effect from 7AM to 10AM
for Southern Nassau NY. Other locations along the coastlines
are expected to remain below minor coastal flood benchmarks.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...