000
FXUS61 KOKX 152247
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
547 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast tonight and Thursday will give way
to a cold front Friday night and Saturday. High pressure builds
into the region for the beginning of next week. Another low
pressure system is expected to impact the region during the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track, updated for current conditions.

Patches of high clouds were moving through region but will push
offshore this evening, leaving clear skies for later tonight as
a weak trough passes through. This should give us a window for
good radiational cooling and patchy fog/frost away from coast
where winds will diminish. Sided closer to NBM 25th percentile
for lows tonight which gives us a range from the lower 30s well
inland and in the pine barrens of Long Island to the lower 40s
within NYC.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains offshore keeping area in milder W/SW
flow. 850 mb temperatures are actually a bit cooler than today
but combination of sunshine and W/SW flow should help
temperatures climb several degrees higher, in 50s to some lower
60s per model 2m temperatures. Airmass remains fairly dry Thu
night so lows should have no problem falling back into 30s to
mid 40s, a few degrees warmer than tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:
 - Showers Fri night/Sat
 - Dry and cooler early next week
 - Rain Tue night/Wed, possible light icing inland at start

Dry and mild weather should persist into Fri before we deal with
cold front and possible coastal low Fri night and Sat. Starting
to see a trend toward a stronger northern stream trough which
would keep coastal low well out to sea and limit our rainfall to
approach and passage of cold front itself. Ensembles show
precipitable water values (available moisture) rising to around
1 inch Sat morning, which is roughly in 90th percentile when
compared to normal values for mid November. Despite unusually
high moisture, system will be progressive which will limit
rainfall amounts to 0.25 to 0.50 inch on average. Timing of
steadier rainfall should be late Fri night into Sat morning,
though it`s possible some showers linger into Sat afternoon,
especially across southern CT and eastern Long Island.

From there, we remain under cyclonic flow aloft which will keep
temperatures near or even slightly below normal early next week.
Dry weather is expected as high pressure builds into region Sun
and Mon.

Ensembles show a southern stream trough and low pressure system
emerging from the southern Plains and Tennessee Valley early
next week, which should impact region Tue night and Wed. At this
point odds favor rain for Tri-State area, but if it arrives
earlier (Tue evening), there could be a short period of light
freezing rain at onset with minor travel impacts well inland
across parts of Hudson Valley and interior southern CT where
cold air will take longer to erode, before a transition to rain
Tue night.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains offshore through the end of the week.

VFR.

S/SW winds 10 kt or less this afternoon, veering to W tonight
and Thu morning, before going back to SW Thu afternoon and
night.

     NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon: VFR.

Friday: VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR n showers late day into
the evening. S G15-20kt.

Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers early, improving to VFR late
in the day. NW G15-25kt.

Sunday: VFR. W G20-25kt.

Monday: VFR. NW 10kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure off coast will maintain light SW winds and calm
seas tonight into Fri. Approaching cold front Fri evening may
bring SCA winds and seas Fri night, especially to ocean waters.
Better chance of SCA conditions on all waters this weekend as
low pressure passes offshore and brings increasing NE winds and
building seas, before high pressure builds over region Mon.
Another round of SCA conditions are likely for the middle of
next week as low pressure approaches from the TN Valley.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...