000
FXUS61 KOKX 161201
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
701 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today but remains centered offshore.
High pressure moves offshore tonight. A cold front approaches
Friday into Friday night and then moves across Saturday. A
strong low passes well east of the region Saturday and then
strengthens as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday
night. High pressure builds in to start the week, then a storm
system is possible in the Tue/Wed time period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast on track this morning. Slight changes to database with
respect to cloud coverage and temperatures to better match
observed trends.

For today, nearly zonal flow remains with some slight ridging
in the mid levels. At the surface, high pressure will be moving
into the area but will remain centered offshore. A mostly sunny
day is expected. Some more low level warm air advection is
forecast and while vertical mixing will be relatively similar to
the previous day, the temperatures will be warmer at the top of
the mixed layer. So, mixing adiabatically down is forecast to
result in temperatures substantially warmer than the previous
day. Used a blend of MAV and MET guidance for forecast high
temperatures, ranging mainly from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

For tonight, mostly clear sky conditions expected with high
pressure continuing to move offshore. Synoptic SW flow will
remain in the area. However, the pressure gradient will be weak
so surface winds will be light. Despite the efficient
radiational cooling conditions, forecast lows range from lower
30s to upper 40s, relatively warmer than the previous night for
much of the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Synoptic SW flow remains Friday through Friday night in low to
mid levels. More westerly flow takes place in low to mid levels
Saturday through Saturday night.

Main forecast focus on Friday night into early Saturday is
unphased northern and southern branches of upper level jet. A
cold front approaches Friday into Friday night and moves across
Saturday. A strong low moves east of the 40N/70W benchmark. The
rain we receive will be mostly from the front, which appears to
weaken as it moves into the area.

There will be a tightening pressure gradient with west to
northwest flow developing Saturday into Saturday night behind
the low as it deepens going into the Canadian Maritimes. A
cooler and drier airmass will get advected into the area.

Warmer than normal temperatures Friday and Friday night with
close to normal temperatures first half of weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Breezy on Sun as low pres departs. An upr trof will swing thru New
England, but attm the main dpva belt is progged to remain north of
the cwa. A dry fcst has therefore been issued. Temps plateau in the
upr 40s to low 50s with good mixing. Temps cool off Sun ngt with
clearing skies, but light nwly flow is still progged to be in place,
limiting the radiational cooling potential, especially at the coast
and in the city. Poor mixing and a cold airmass will keep areas in
the 40s on Mon. Some of the higher elevations may stay in the upr
30s. Still dry but high clouds overspread the area late in the day
from the SW.

The modeling continues to signal a low pres sys for the Tue/Wed time
period. Based on the current track fcst, primarily a rain storm with
perhaps a little mixing at the onset across the interior. Some
timing concerns with the modeling, as the ECMWF is much faster than
the GFS. Too far out to have any confidence in the timing and exact
track, but the signal is pretty consistent for a storm. Did limit
the NBM pops to likely due to the track/timing concerns.

Behind the low, the modeling is gaining better consensus with a cold
airmass building in for Thanksgiving. The ECMWF had previously been
a bit tentative with the cold pattern progged by the GFS, but it now
appears to be on board.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A surface trough moves across the area this morning, otherwise high
pressure will remain off the Mid Atlantic coast. Low pres begins
to approach from the S on Fri.

VFR thru the TAF period. A light W/SW flow becoming SSW this
aftn and eve. Speeds pick up after 12Z Fri.

NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR during the day, then -RA and MVFR or lower possible at
night. S G15-20kt.

Saturday: MVFR or lower in -RA early, improving to VFR late in the
day. NW G20-30kt.

Sunday: VFR. W G20-25kt.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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For the ocean waters from Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point,
higher seas are lingering based on extrapolation from Buoy 44097
which has been hovering near 6 ft last few hours. The more
eastern part of this marine zone is expected to have 5 ft seas
this morning. There is a small craft advisory in effect until
11AM this morning.

Otherwise, for the rest of the waters, below SCA conditions are
forecast to remain through Friday night. SCA conditions become
increasingly likely for all waters for the first half of the
weekend in response to steepening pressure gradient between low
east to northeast of the waters and high pressure to the west.

Decreasing winds on Sun, but seas on the ocean will remain at sca
lvls thru Sun night. Although winds will be blw sca lvls Mon, seas
on the ocean may linger around 5 ft. Winds and waves build on Tue
ahead of a strong storm sys. Gales are possible with the storm in
the late Tue/Wed period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected with the rain Friday night into
early Saturday. Rain amounts forecast are less than a quarter
inch.

Some minor poor drainage flooding may be possible with the low
pres sys Tue-Wed.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ350.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM