discussion on 2023-11-16

000
FXUS61 KOKX 161751
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1251 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure remains in control through Friday, then a cold front
passes through Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure
then begins to build in by late in the day, following the departure
of a separate storm offshore. This high then remains in control
through Monday, then a storm system likely impacts the region
Tuesday into Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Adjusted high temperatures in some areas based on the latest
trends, particularly across the urban corridor of NE NJ and away
from both north and south shores of LI. The rest of the forecast
is pretty much on track. Sunny with high pressure in control,
and highs ranging mostly from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

For tonight, mostly clear sky conditions expected with high
pressure continuing to move offshore. Synoptic SW flow will
remain in the area. However, the pressure gradient will be weak
so surface winds will be light. Despite the efficient
radiational cooling conditions, forecast lows range from lower
30s to upper 40s, relatively warmer than the previous night for
much of the area.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Synoptic SW flow remains Friday through Friday night in low to
mid levels. More westerly flow takes place in low to mid levels
Saturday through Saturday night.

Main forecast focus on Friday night into early Saturday is
unphased northern and southern branches of upper level jet. A
cold front approaches Friday into Friday night and moves across
Saturday. A strong low moves east of the 40N/70W benchmark. The
rain we receive will be mostly from the front, which appears to
weaken as it moves into the area.

There will be a tightening pressure gradient with west to
northwest flow developing Saturday into Saturday night behind
the low as it deepens going into the Canadian Maritimes. A
cooler and drier airmass will get advected into the area.

Warmer than normal temperatures Friday and Friday night with
close to normal temperatures first half of weekend.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Breezy on Sun as low pres departs. An upr trof will swing thru New
England, but attm the main dpva belt is progged to remain north of
the cwa. A dry fcst has therefore been issued. Temps plateau in the
upr 40s to low 50s with good mixing. Temps cool off Sun ngt with
clearing skies, but light nwly flow is still progged to be in place,
limiting the radiational cooling potential, especially at the coast
and in the city. Poor mixing and a cold airmass will keep areas in
the 40s on Mon. Some of the higher elevations may stay in the upr
30s. Still dry but high clouds overspread the area late in the day
from the SW.

The modeling continues to signal a low pres sys for the Tue/Wed time
period. Based on the current track fcst, primarily a rain storm with
perhaps a little mixing at the onset across the interior. Some
timing concerns with the modeling, as the ECMWF is much faster than
the GFS. Too far out to have any confidence in the timing and exact
track, but the signal is pretty consistent for a storm. Did limit
the NBM pops to likely due to the track/timing concerns.

Behind the low, the modeling is gaining better consensus with a cold
airmass building in for Thanksgiving. The ECMWF had previously been
a bit tentative with the cold pattern progged by the GFS, but it now
appears to be on board.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will remain centered south of the area through
tonight. Low pressure begins to approach the area to the south
on Friday with a cold front approaching from the west.

VFR through the TAF period. Any light W/SW flow becomes SSW
this by this evening. Winds may become light and variable
tonight. Wind picks up out of the S/SSW Friday morning after
12Z. Some gusts upwards of 20kt are possible late morning into
the afternoon.

NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: VFR during the day, then -RA and MVFR or lower possible at
night. S G15-20kt.

Saturday: MVFR or lower in -RA early, improving to VFR late in the
day. NW G20-30kt.

Sunday: VFR. W G20-25kt.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR or lower likely in RA. SE G20-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --For the ocean waters from Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point,
higher seas are lingering based on extrapolation from Buoy 44097
which has been hovering near 6 ft last few hours. The more

eastern part of this marine zone is expected to have 5 ft seas
this morning. There is a small craft advisory in effect until
11AM this morning.

Otherwise, for the rest of the waters, below SCA conditions are
forecast to remain through Friday night. SCA conditions become
increasingly likely for all waters for the first half of the
weekend in response to steepening pressure gradient between low
east to northeast of the waters and high pressure to the west.

Decreasing winds on Sun, but seas on the ocean will remain at sca
lvls thru Sun night. Although winds will be blw sca lvls Mon, seas
on the ocean may linger around 5 ft. Winds and waves build on Tue
ahead of a strong storm sys. Gales are possible with the storm in
the late Tue/Wed period.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected with the rain Friday night into
early Saturday. Rain amounts forecast are less than a quarter
inch.

Some minor poor drainage flooding may be possible with the low
pres sys Tue-Wed.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM