000
FXUS61 KOKX 162057
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control through Friday, then a cold front
passes through Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure
then begins to build in by late in the day, following the departure
of a separate storm offshore. A cold front will pass through
Sunday evening, followed by stronger high pressure late Sunday
night into Monday. The high will retreat to the northeast Monday
night, then a low pressure system will approach on Tuesday and
move across Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Canadian high
pressure will then slowly build from the west later Wednesday
into Thanksgiving Day.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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A ridge axis will be over the region tonight with surface high
pressure centered over the western Atlantic. Mostly clear
conditions, although there may be some cirrus streaming through from
time to time. This may offset radiational cooling, however, have
still blended in MAV/MET MOS with the typically too warm NBM in
areas that typically see stronger radiational cooling. Will probably
see patchy frost in these areas as well.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure weakens over the local area on Friday as the flow
aloft begins to turn more cyclonic. A cold front enters western NY
and PA in the afternoon, but associated rainfall will remain to our
west during the daytime. It`ll be a mild day with temperature
profiles through the mixed layer as warm or even warmer than those
seen today. Have therefore gone above NBM for highs, and
temperatures should end up about 10-15 degrees above normal. No
records are expected to be broken, but high temps may be within a
few degrees of a couple of records.

The cold front enters the forecast area Friday night in a weakening
state as a separate storm shifts NE from off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
The two systems may cause an area of subsidence in between them,
which in turn may rob some areas from seeing any rainfall during the
Friday night/Saturday morning period. Have therefore lowered PoPs
from the previous forecast, but still maintained likely PoPs over
the NW zones where enough moisture remains with the lift from the
cold front.

Only a lingering chance of rain east of the city Saturday morning,
otherwise dry weather with high pressure starting to build in by
late in the day as the offshore storm shifts farther away. The
pressure gradient tightens between the departing low and building
high, so a gusty NW wind develops in the afternoon. Highs mostly in
the 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Brisk and dry Sat night into on Sunday as low pressure departs, with
lows mostly in the 20s/30s and highs in the upper 40s/lower 50s,
close to normal. A strong upper trough will drive a secondary cold
front through Sunday night, and this fropa should be dry courtesy of
downslope flow. Temps Sunday night will be fairly close to those of
Sat night, but highs on Mon under Canadian high pressure should top
out in the 40s throughout, about 4-7 degrees below normal.

As the high departs Monday night, clouds will increase from the SW,
and precip with the approaching low pressure system looks to hold
off until daybreak Tue, with lows from the mid/upper 20s well
inland, to the mid/upper 30s invof NYC. Model fcst partial
thicknesses suggest a possible brief wintry mix NW of NYC Tue
morning, otherwise a rain event is shaping up for Tue into Tue
night, possibly lingering into Wed AM per slower model ensemble
members. Rain could be heavy at times late Tue afternoon into Tue
eve via influx of Atlantic/Gulf moisture and strong LL isentropic
lift/convergence ahead of an approaching warm front and triple-point
low.

Cool and somewhat brisk conds should follow for Thanksgiving Day as
high pressure builds from the west, with AM lows from the upper 20s
to mid 30s, PM highs only in the 40s and W flow 10-15 mph gusting to
around or just over 20 mph.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure will remain centered south of the area through
tonight. Low pressure begins to approach the area to the south
on Friday with a cold front approaching from the west.

VFR through the TAF period. Light SW/SSW flow through tonight. Winds
may become light and variable tonight. Wind picks up out of the
S/SSW Friday morning after 12Z. Some gusts upwards of 20kt are
possible late morning into the afternoon.

NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: VFR during the day, then -RA and MVFR or lower possible at
night. S G15-20kt.

Saturday: MVFR or lower in -RA early, improving to VFR late in the
day. NW G20-30kt.

Sunday: VFR. W G20-25kt.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR or lower likely in RA. SE G20-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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High pressure keeps relatively tranquil conditions across all waters
through Friday. A coastal storm passing to the south on Saturday
will help generate a swell that`s expected to help push ocean seas
above 5 ft starting Saturday afternoon. Additionally, SCA conditions
will be likely on all waters Saturday afternoon as an offshore flow
strengthens and becomes gusty behind the departure of the coastal
storm.

An extended period of SCA conds expected on the ocean waters into
mid next week. NW winds could gust up to 25 kt on the ocean Sat
night into daytime Sunday and then on all waters Sunday night, then
diminish with passing high pressure Mon into Mon night. Ocean seas
will remain elevated at 5-8 ft from Sat night into Sunday night, and
5-6 ft into Mon/Mon night.

Increasing E-SE flow Tue into Tue night should lead to SCA cond on
all waters and build ocean seas up to 7-10 ft. A few gale force
gusts may be possible just ahead of an approaching warm front and
wave of low pressure Tue evening.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected with the rain Friday night into
early Saturday. Rain amounts will be less than a quarter of an inch.

Rainfall of 1.5-2 inches expected with a frontal system Tue into Tue
night, and local amts 2-2.5 inches are possible. This would cause at
least minor urban/poor drainage flooding issues. The timing of
heavier rain from late day into the evening could also impact the
Tue evening commute.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG