000
FXUS61 KOKX 170302
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1002 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain in control through Friday, then a cold
front will pass through late Friday night into Saturday morning
while low pressure passes well offshore. High pressure will
then begin to build in by late Saturday. A secondary cold front
will pass through Sunday evening, followed by stronger high
pressure late Sunday night into Monday. The high will retreat to
the northeast Monday night, then a low pressure system will
approach on Tuesday and move across Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Canadian high pressure will then slowly build from the
west later Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A ridge axis will be over the region tonight with surface high
pressure centered over the western Atlantic. Mostly clear
conditions, although there may be some cirrus streaming through
from time to time. This may offset radiational cooling,
however, have still blended in MAV/MET MOS with the typically
too warm NBM in areas that typically see stronger radiational
cooling. Will probably see patchy frost in these areas as
well. Patchy ground fog is also possible across much of the
area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure weakens over the local area on Friday as the flow
aloft begins to turn more cyclonic. A cold front enters western NY
and PA in the afternoon, but associated rainfall will remain to our
west during the daytime. It`ll be a mild day with temperature
profiles through the mixed layer as warm or even warmer than those
seen today. Have therefore gone above NBM for highs, and
temperatures should end up about 10-15 degrees above normal. No
records are expected to be broken, but high temps may be within a
few degrees of a couple of records.
The cold front enters the forecast area Friday night in a weakening
state as a separate storm shifts NE from off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
The two systems may cause an area of subsidence in between them,
which in turn may rob some areas from seeing any rainfall during the
Friday night/Saturday morning period. Have therefore lowered PoPs
from the previous forecast, but still maintained likely PoPs over
the NW zones where enough moisture remains with the lift from the
cold front.
Only a lingering chance of rain east of the city Saturday morning,
otherwise dry weather with high pressure starting to build in by
late in the day as the offshore storm shifts farther away. The
pressure gradient tightens between the departing low and building
high, so a gusty NW wind develops in the afternoon. Highs mostly in
the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Brisk and dry Sat night into on Sunday as low pressure departs,
with lows mostly in the 20s/30s and highs in the upper
40s/lower 50s, close to normal. A strong upper trough will drive
a secondary cold front through Sunday night, and this fropa
should be dry courtesy of downslope flow. Temps Sunday night
will be fairly close to those of Sat night, but highs on Mon
under Canadian high pressure should top out in the 40s
throughout, about 4-7 degrees below normal.
As the high departs Monday night, clouds will increase from the
SW, and precip with the approaching low pressure system looks
to hold off until daybreak Tue, with lows from the mid/upper 20s
well inland, to the mid/upper 30s invof NYC. Model fcst partial
thicknesses suggest a possible brief wintry mix NW of NYC Tue
morning, otherwise a rain event is shaping up for Tue into Tue
night, possibly lingering into Wed AM per slower model ensemble
members. Rain could be heavy at times late Tue afternoon into
Tue eve via influx of Atlantic/Gulf moisture and strong LL
isentropic lift/convergence ahead of an approaching warm front
and triple-point low.
Cool and somewhat brisk conds should follow for Thanksgiving Day
as high pressure builds from the west, with AM lows from the
upper 20s to mid 30s, PM highs only in the 40s and W flow 10-15
mph gusting to around or just over 20 mph.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain centered south of the area through
tonight. Low pressure begins to approach the area to the south
on Friday with a cold front approaching from the west.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Patchy ground fog overnight
could briefly produce IFR conditions. Light S/SW flow through
tonight. Winds may become light and variable tonight. Wind picks
up out of the S/SSW Friday morning after 12Z. Some gusts
upwards of 20kt are possible late morning into the afternoon.
Winds will gradually diminish Friday evening.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Patchy ground ground fog possible toward daybreak.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Night: Chance of MVFR in -RA late, mainly north and west
of the NYC terminals.
Saturday: MVFR or lower in -RA early, improving to VFR late in the
day. NW winds G20-30kt.
Sunday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR or lower likely in RA, mainly afternoon and
night. SE winds G20-30kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure keeps relatively tranquil conditions across all waters
through Friday. Low pressure passing well SE on Saturday will
help generate a swell that`s expected to help push ocean seas
above 5 ft starting Saturday afternoon. Additionally, SCA
conditions will be likely on all waters Saturday afternoon as an
offshore flow strengthens and becomes gusty behind the
departure of the coastal storm.
An extended period of SCA conds expected on the ocean waters into
mid next week. NW winds could gust up to 25 kt on the ocean Sat
night into daytime Sunday and then on all waters Sunday night, then
diminish with passing high pressure Mon into Mon night. Ocean seas
will remain elevated at 5-8 ft from Sat night into Sunday night, and
5-6 ft into Mon/Mon night.
Increasing E-SE flow Tue into Tue night should lead to SCA cond on
all waters and build ocean seas up to 7-10 ft. A few gale force
gusts may be possible just ahead of an approaching warm front and
wave of low pressure Tue evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected with the rain Friday night into
early Saturday. Rain amounts will be less than a quarter of an inch.
Rainfall of 1.5-2 inches expected with a frontal system Tue into Tue
night, and local amts 2-2.5 inches are possible. This would cause at
least minor urban/poor drainage flooding issues. The timing of
heavier rain from late day into the evening could also impact the
Tue evening commute.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DW