000
FXUS61 KOKX 171505
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1005 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control today, followed by a cold
front pushing through early Saturday while low pressure passes
well offshore. High pressure then builds from the west and
southwest for the weekend. Another high pressure system builds
in from the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday, then moves
offshore Tuesday. A frontal system approaches the local region
from the west Tuesday. The associated warm front moves across
Tuesday night with the central low moving across early
Wednesday. The low strengthens and moves towards the Canadian
Maritimes Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will
start to build back into the area towards Thanksgiving of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Fog has quickly burned off this morning, with a SW to S flow of
milder air in advance of a cold front which remains off to the
west today. Increasing high and mid clouds this afternoon with
from the west. The day should remain dry as any lift will
remain elevated and weak. Temperatures today will run a good 6
to 10 degrees above normal with mainly lower and middle 60s for
day time maxes (upper 60s in NYC/NJ metro).
For tonight look for cloudy skies with mild conditions. Temperatures
will be well into the 50s for much of the night, with only far NW
sections beginning to cool off towards daybreak as the cold front
begins to push into the region. Much of the evening hours looks dry,
but do introduce chance to slight chance showers across western and
northwestern sections. After midnight is when most of the shower
activity takes place chance PoPs, and likely PoPs across portions of
northern sections. The rain is expected to be light with rainfall
amounts mainly under a tenth of an inch by Sat morning. The cold
front is expected to get into part NW sections towards daybreak
Saturday and should begin to bring an end to any rain / shower
activity across western sections as the leading edge of drier and
cooler air arrives.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Behind the cold front Saturday morning the pressure gradient
increases quickly and with steeper lapse rates look for the winds to
gust by mid morning and into the afternoon. Gusts are likely to
approach 30 mph across all zones on a N to NW wind. Dew point
readings will fall quickly through the day and eventually get down
into the 20s, especially further west for the late afternoon.
Temperatures should get into the 40s by day`s end despite a good
deal of sunshine.
High pressure to the WSW will continue to build through Saturday
night and on into Sunday with predominantly clear skies. The winds
will gradually diminish Saturday night. It will likely feel about 5
to 10 degrees colder with the wind at times during Saturday evening,
with the winds lighter later at night. As the air mass modifies a
bit on Sunday temperatures will return to seasonable levels with a
good deal of sunshine, but it will be brisk on a westerly breeze.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northern branch of upper jet moves farther north of the region.
Strong large width of more southern branch of upper jet strengthens
and moves into the area for early to mid next week. This will bring
more amplified synoptic pattern into the region.
The strengthening frontal system approaches Tuesday with its triple
point low moving across early Wednesday. A lot of warm air advection
will make this a primarily rain event. Rain could be heavy at times
especially Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Winds also increase
rapidly Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
Potential for wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph. Potential for flooding as
well for any locations getting a large amount of rain in a short
amount of time especially if those locations contain poor drainage.
Some individual GEFS members indicate potential for a few inches of
rainfall accumulation just for Tuesday night. There could still be
model run fluctuations easily of plus or minus 5 to 10 mph with
greater uncertainty in the rainfall amounts in subsequent model
runs.
The model uncertainty will deal with how well models resolve the
developing area of low pressure and its translational speed. It will
be a matter of how much difference there in these features between
different models as well as across different initialization times.
Temperatures overall below normal except for Tuesday through
Wednesday. Near normal high temperatures are forecast Tuesday and
above normal temperatures are forecast Tuesday night and
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front approaches from the west today into tonight, moving
through early Saturday. VFR through the day.
For tonight into early Saturday, rain develops ahead of the
cold front and cigs lower to MVFR. Low stratus is forecast to
linger after the rain through Saturday AM.
SW wind around 10 kt today, with occasional gusts to near 20 kt
this afternoon. Winds tonight will be S near 5 kt, eventually
becoming variable direction again late. Flow goes NNW behind
front on Saturday, with increasing speeds allowing gusts 20 to
25 kt.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of gusts could vary a few hours from TAF. Gusts may be
more intermittent.
IFR cigs possible for a time early Sat AM.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: MVFR, possibly lower, in -RA early, improving to VFR
by afternoon. NW winds G20-25kt.
Sunday: VFR. W winds G20kt.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR or lower in RA, mainly afternoon and night.
SE winds G30-40kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
For today a southerly breeze increases through the late morning and
early afternoon. The western ocean and western nearshore waters will
be hovering near small craft gusts at times. Held off on a small
craft for now as gusts appear that they will be too occasional, but
a brief period of small craft gusts cannot be ruled out for these
zones. Otherwise expect sub small craft conditions to prevail
through tonight with a cold front approaching from the west into
Saturday morning. The front should push through from west to east
Saturday morning. Immediately behind the boundary the winds will pick
up out of the N and NW. Gusts are expected to get to 25 to 30 kt for
all waters. At this time gales are not anticipated. Low pressure
passing well SE on Saturday will help generate a swell that`s
expected to help push ocean seas above 5 ft starting Saturday
afternoon and continuing through Saturday night. Thus SCA conditions
are expected on all waters Saturday afternoon as an offshore flow
strengthens and becomes gusty behind the departure of the developing
offshore storm. Elevated seas will continue through Sunday with at
least marginal small craft conditions at times on the nearshore
waters.
SCA gusts are expected on some of the waters Sunday night into
early Monday. Then sub-SCA for the rest of Monday through
Monday night. SCA conditions probable, especially across the
ocean Tuesday. Widespread gale force gusts Tuesday night possible.
Gale force gusts possible Wednesday also. SCA gusts forecast
Wednesday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Monday.
Heavy rain and possible flooding with a frontal system Tuesday
through early Wednesday. There is the potential for 1 to 2
inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to midnight EST
Saturday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JM
NEAR TERM...JE/NV
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE/JM
HYDROLOGY...JE/JM