000
FXUS61 KOKX 172051
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaches tonight and pushes through through
early Saturday while strengthening low pressure passes well
offshore. High pressure then builds from the west and southwest
for the weekend. Another cold front moves through late Sunday,
followed by Canadian high pressure moving overhead on Monday.
High pressure moves east on Tuesday as a frontal system
approaches from the west. Its associated warm front will
approach from the south Tuesday night, then a cold front will
move across on Wednesday. High pressure will follow for
Thanksgiving Day into Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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A northern stream shortwave over the Great Lakes pivots towards
the region tonight and swings through on Saturday. At the
surface, a cold front trailing intensifying low pressure near
Hudson`s Bay will approach the region tonight.

Modest right entrance region lift and residual gulf moisture
will increase potential for showers across NW interior portions
of the region this evening, with shower activity likely
weakening and becoming more sparse as it translates east as the
cold front weakens. Best low-level forcing likely develops to
the east of the region, with offshore low pressure shunting
Atlantic/Subtropical moisture flow into system, keeping rainfall
amounts light. Low potential for far eastern portions of the
region to briefly see a few heavier showers late tonight/early
Sat morning as southern shortwave rotates up the coast and some
weak elevated instability develops ahead of the front. Overall a
very light event rain event. Low temps will be unseasonably
mild (15 degrees or so above normal), near typical high temps
for this this time of year.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Northern stream shortwave pivots east through the area on
Saturday with a longwave northern stream trough centered around
Hudson Bay polar low sinking into the NE US through Sunday.

At the surface, weakening cold front passes east of the region early
Saturday morning, with offshore low pressure rapidly deepening Sat
into Sat night as it lifts north into the Canadian maritimes.

Drying conditions on gusty NW flow Sat morning into afternoon in
wake of the cold front on gusty NW flow of 25-30 mph, with any
lingering post frontal showers coming to an end by midday. CAA is
weak, so temps will remain above seasonable in the mid to upper
50s.

High pressure gradually builds to the south of the region Saturday
Night into Sunday, with a reinforcing cold front passage Sun
aft/eve and stronger caa on gusty NW flow late Sun into Sun
Night. Canadian high pressure builds in for early next week.

High temps a few degrees above seasonable on Saturday, and near
seasonable on Sunday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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At the start of the period, a 1030 mb high sliding SE from Ontario
into New England beneath strong mid level confluence associated with
a departing nrn stream trough moving across ern Canada will lead to
a cool Monday, with highs only in the 40s, and lows Mon night from
the mid 20s inland to the mid 30s in NYC.

Longer term, siding mostly with the NBM which maintains fairly good
fcst continuity along with model ensemble means and also the 12Z
ECMWF regarding the frontal sys progged to affect the area Tue-Wed.
Model trend has been slower, with precip not likely to arrive until
late day Tue or Tue night. There is still potential for strong
winds gusting to 35-45 mph along the coast and in the NYC metro
area, and heavy rain throughout late Tue night as a strong southerly
LLJ passes overhead.

A cold front sweeping through on Wed will bring cool and brisk
conditions for Thanksgiving Day, with AM lows from the mid 20s
inland to lower 30s in NYC, and highs only in the upper 30s and
lower 40s. Similar low temps expected by sunrise Friday, with
less wind but high temps only a bit milder, lower/mid 40s.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A cold front approaches from the west tonight, moving through early
Saturday. VFR through this evening.

Rain showers develop ahead of the cold front and cigs potentially
lower to MVFR after 6Z. Low stratus may linger after the rain
through Saturday AM.

SW wind today lightens and backs to the S this evening, becoming
variable overnight. Flow goes NNW behind front on Saturday, with
speeds increasing to around 10-15 kt G20-25 kt.

 ...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing and duration of MVFR cigs may be off by a couple of hours.

Brief IFR cigs possible early Sat AM.

Isolated gusts to 30 kt possible Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday PM: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.

Sunday: VFR. W winds G20kt.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR or lower in RA, mainly afternoon and night. SE
winds G20-30kt.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower in RA, becoming VFR. W winds G25-35kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Marginal SCA gusts expected to develop for all waters Sat AM in wake
of cold front and strengthening offshore low Sat AM. Winds subside
below SCA Sat evening, but SE swells from offshore low pressure will
maintain SCA ocean seas through the weekend, gradually subsiding
early next week.

Marginal SCA gusts are possible on the ocean waters late Sunday into
early Monday in wake of a reinforcing cold front. Residual 5-6
ft ocean seas likely to continue into Monday as high pressure
builds over the waters. Then sub-SCA conds expected on all
waters from Mon night into most of daytime Tue.

A frontal system approaching Tue night and passing through Wed AM
should bring at least SCA conds to all waters Tue night into Wed
night. SE-S flow could gust to gale force late Tue night into Wed AM
especially on the ocean waters. get to 25 to 30 kt for all
waters.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Monday.

Heavy rain and possible flooding with a frontal system Tuesday
through early Wednesday. There is the potential for 1 to 2
inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to midnight EST
     Saturday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BG/NV
HYDROLOGY...BG/NV