000
FXUS61 KOKX 172302
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
602 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaching tonight will pass through early
Saturday, while strengthening low pressure passes well offshore.
High pressure will then build from the west and southwest for
the weekend. Another cold front will move through late Sunday,
followed by Canadian high pressure moving overhead on Monday.
The high will move east on Tuesday as a frontal system
approaches from the west. Its associated warm front will
approach from the south Tuesday night, then a cold front will
move across on Wednesday. High pressure will follow for
Thanksgiving Day into Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Fcst mostly on track, with minor adjustments made to trend from
current obs.

A northern stream shortwave over the Great Lakes pivots towards
the region tonight and swings through on Saturday. At the
surface, a cold front trailing intensifying low pressure near
Hudson Bay will approach the region tonight.

Modest jet streak right entrance region lift and residual Gulf
moisture will increase potential for showers across NW
interior portions of the region tonight, with activity likely
weakening and becoming more sparse as it translates east as
the sfc cold front weakens. Best low level forcing likely
develops to the east of the region, with offshore low pressure
shunting Atlantic/subtropical moisture flow mostly away from the
area and keeping rainfall amounts light. Low potential for far
eastern portions of the region to briefly see a few heavier
showers late tonight/early Sat morning as southern shortwave
rotates up the coast and some weak elevated instability develops
ahead of the front. Overall a very light event rain event. Low
temps will be unseasonably mild (15 degrees or so above normal),
near typical high temps for this this time of year.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Northern stream shortwave pivots east through the area on
Saturday with a longwave northern stream trough centered
around Hudson Bay polar low sinking into the NE US through
Sunday.

At the surface, weakening cold front passes east of the region
early Saturday morning, with offshore low pressure rapidly
deepening Sat into Sat night as it lifts north into the Canadian
maritimes.

Drying conditions on gusty NW flow Sat morning into afternoon in
wake of the cold front on gusty NW flow of 25-30 mph, with any
lingering post frontal showers coming to an end by midday. CAA
is weak, so temps will remain above seasonable in the mid to
upper 50s.

High pressure gradually builds to the south of the region
Saturday Night into Sunday, with a reinforcing cold front
passage Sun aft/eve and stronger caa on gusty NW flow late Sun
into Sun Night. Canadian high pressure builds in for early next
week.

High temps a few degrees above seasonable on Saturday, and near
seasonable on Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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At the start of the period, a 1030 mb high sliding SE from
Ontario into New England beneath strong mid level confluence
associated with a departing nrn stream trough moving across ern
Canada will lead to a cool Monday, with highs only in the 40s,
and lows Mon night from the mid 20s inland to the mid 30s in
NYC.

Longer term, siding mostly with the NBM which maintains fairly
good fcst continuity along with model ensemble means and also
the 12Z ECMWF regarding the frontal sys progged to affect the
area Tue-Wed. Model trend has been slower, with precip not
likely to arrive until late day Tue or Tue night. There is still
potential for strong winds gusting to 35-45 mph along the coast
and in the NYC metro area, and heavy rain throughout late Tue
night as a strong southerly LLJ passes overhead.

A cold front sweeping through on Wed will bring cool and brisk
conditions for Thanksgiving Day, with AM lows from the mid 20s
inland to lower 30s in NYC, and highs only in the upper 30s and
lower 40s. Similar low temps expected by sunrise Friday, with
less wind but high temps only a bit milder, lower/mid 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A cold front approaches from the west tonight, moving through
early Saturday. VFR through this evening.

Rain showers develop ahead of the cold front and cigs
potentially lower to MVFR after 06Z. Low stratus may linger
after the rain through Saturday AM.

SW wind today lightens and backs to the S this evening, becoming
variable overnight. Flow goes NNW behind front on Saturday,
with speeds increasing to around 10-15 kt G20-25 kt.

 ...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing and duration of MVFR cigs may be off by a couple of
hours.

Brief IFR cigs possible early Sat AM.

Isolated gusts to 30 kt possible Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday PM: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.

Sunday: VFR. W winds G20kt.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR or lower in rain, mainly late day and at
night. SE winds G20-30kt.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower in RA, becoming VFR. W winds G25-35kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Marginal SCA gusts expected to develop for all waters Sat AM in
wake of cold front and strengthening offshore low Sat AM.
Winds subside below SCA Sat evening, but SE swells from offshore
low pressure will maintain SCA ocean seas through the weekend,
gradually subsiding early next week.

Marginal SCA gusts are also possible on the ocean waters late
Sunday into early Monday in wake of a reinforcing cold front.
Residual 5-6 ft ocean seas likely to continue through the day
Monday as high pressure builds over the waters. Then sub-SCA
conds expected on all waters from Mon night into most of daytime
Tue.

A frontal system approaching Tue night and passing through Wed
AM should bring at least SCA conds to all waters Tue night
into Wed night. SE-S flow could gust to gale force late Tue
night into Wed AM especially on the ocean waters.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Heavy rain and minor flooding possible with a frontal system
Tuesday through early Wednesday. There is the potential for 1-2
inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to midnight EST
     Saturday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/NV
NEAR TERM...BG/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BG/NV
HYDROLOGY...BG/NV