000
FXUS61 KOKX 181441
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
941 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds from the west and southwest today and tonight.
A cold front moves through early Sunday night, followed by high
pressure for Monday. High pressure moves overhead Monday night and
then offshore on Tuesday. A warm front moves across Tuesday night
with an associated low moving across Wednesday. High pressure then
gradually builds in from the west for mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers will be exiting from w to e this morning as a cold
front pushes through. Behind the cold front the pressure
gradient increases quickly and with steeper lapse rates look for
the winds to gust by mid morning and into the afternoon. Gusts
are likely to approach 30 mph across all zones on a N to NW
wind. An inversion below 5kft should prevent gusts from getting
any stronger. Look for sunshine to develop quickly. Dew point
readings will fall quickly through the day and eventually get
down into the 20s and 30s during the afternoon and start of the
evening. Temperatures will hold steady initially today as the
colder air begins to filter in, with temperatures dropping later
in the day as the cold advection gets a hold and the sun gets
lower. Temperatures should get into the 40s by day`s end despite
a good deal of sunshine with the colder and drier air mass
moving in.
High pressure to the WSW will continue to build through tonight with
predominantly clear skies. It will likely feel about 5 to 10 degrees
colder with the wind at times during early this evening. The winds
will gradually diminish tonight, especially towards late evening and
into the overnight. With more radiational type conditions likely
late in the night, especially away from the coast and in the more
rural area have added mainly patchy frost to the grids for the late
night and early morning hours with widespread 30s for the minimum
temperatures.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As the air mass modifies a bit on Sunday temperatures will quick
return to seasonable temperatures levels (lower and middle 50s) with
a good deal of sunshine, but it will be brisk on a westerly breeze.
For the late day and early evening another cold front slides across
from the northwest. The winds will swing from the west to northwest
for the evening. This will usher in a reinforcing shot of colder air
for Sunday night into the day on Monday. The winds should begin to
settle down enough towards early Monday morning for at least some
patchy frost to form. The winds staying up more would preclude any
frost formation. A few locations where the growing season has yet to
officially come to an end, temperatures may get close to freezing
for some outer sections of the city and NE NJ.
With the high settling in on Monday look for another dry and mainly
sunny day. Some high clouds will begin to streak across in the
afternoon. On a brisk northerly flow look for temperatures to
average below normal with mainly lower and middle 40s, with the wind
making it feel more like middle and upper 30s across northern
locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main key points in the long term are another efficient radiational
cooling night Monday night, a potentially significant frontal system
Tuesday night into Wednesday and breezy and cooler conditions
thereafter.
For Monday night, large upper level jet increases in strength across
South Central to Southeast US. There is some slight ridging in the
local area Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Upper level jet
speed maximum starts to move into local area.
For Tuesday, upper level jet maxima over the area. Ridging with
250mb height pattern. Upper level ridge axis overhead Tuesday night
with upper level jet maxima still overhead.
Lot of uncertainty thereafter in forecast for Wednesday through
Thursday. There are model differences pertaining to jet being phased
vs unphased with northern and southern branches. ECMWF phased with
GFS, Canadian (previous run) and ICON indicating more unphased
pattern. Overall, model coherence with there being an upper level
low in vicinity of SE Canada with either W or SW mid to upper level
across the local region.
Also, difference are also evident in the NBM with large variations
in max wind and wind gusts in the area comparing Tuesday night
forecasts with NBM forecasts of 24 hours ago. Differences are on the
order of 5-10 kts.
Upper levels depict jet stream maximum winds still across the area
for Friday with quasi-zonal flow.
At the surface, high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes, moving
directly over the region Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Then, high pressure will slowly move eastward away from the region
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Colder than normal temperatures Monday
night are followed by near normal temperatures for Tuesday. Then,
above normal temperatures forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a developing frontal system approaches from the
southwest. The associated warm front moves across Tuesday night with
a developing low to the west along the front moving across Wednesday.
Tuesday night into Wednesday will be main focus of the long term
forecast. The next main rain event will occur during this timeframe.
Could be some snow initially across parts of the interior as well as
right before the precipitation ends. Gusty winds, potential for at
least minor flooding as well as coastal flooding are possible
impacts during this timeframe as well.
Breezy and cooler than normal with drier conditions for Wednesday
night, Thanksgiving and Friday. GFS does depict much difference with
another low moving across Thanksgiving with more rain but this model
prediction appears to be an outlier.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in behind a departing cold front.
VFR, however sub-VFR into late morning for KISP and KGON.
NNW winds mostly 15-20kt with gusts 25-30kt, backing slightly
this afternoon, but still north of 310 magnetic into this
evening.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Tempo MVFR cigs possible through 16z. Sustained winds and gusts
forecast may be a few kt too high through the day.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR. W winds G20kt late morning, afternoon and into
evening.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR with IFR possible. Chance of rain during the day,
expected at night. SE winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt
afternoon into early evening. Gusts up to 25-30 kt late evening
into overnight. Locally higher gusts possible.
Wednesday: MVFR with IFR possible. Rain likely early AM. Chance
of rain thereafter into early evening. S-SW winds near 15 kt
with gusts 25-30 kt AM. W winds near 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt
PM. Locally higher gusts possible. Possible LLWS early with
S-SW winds near 50 kt at 2kft.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front moves across this morning and immediately behind
the boundary the winds will pick up out of the north and
northwest. Gusts are expected to get to 25 to 30 kt this
afternoon for all waters with gales not anticipated. Low
pressure passing well SE later today will help generate a swell
that`s expected to help push ocean seas above 5 ft starting this
afternoon and continuing through tonight. Thus SCA conditions
are expected on all waters through at least the early evening
before winds subside, however elevated seas continue through the
day on Sunday out on the ocean. After the winds subside
tonight, a west wind will increase during the day on Sunday with
possible small craft gusts at times, especially further east
and later in the day and evening. The winds will then settle
down once again as high pressure builds towards the waters on
Monday. Marginal small craft seas are likely to persist through
much of the day on Monday.
Sub-SCA conditions are forecast on all waters Monday night through
Tuesday. Winds and seas trend higher Tuesday afternoon. For Tuesday
night into Wednesday night, SCA wind gusts appearing more likely
across all waters with potential for gales as well. Gale potential
is addressed in the HWO with the most likely timeframe for this
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Monday night. Heavy
rain and minor flooding possible with a frontal system Tuesday
through early Wednesday. There remains potential for 1-2 inches
of rain with locally higher amounts possible.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JE/JM
HYDROLOGY...JE/JM