000
FXUS61 KOKX 192335
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
635 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the northwest through Monday night.
The high moves off the New England coast Tuesday as low
pressure approaches from the southwest. The low moves through
the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High pressure
builds for Wednesday night through Friday. Low pressure
approaches along the coast next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated for current conditions.
A cold front will be passing through early this evening, but not
much moisture with this front. Thinking is that the sub-cloud layer
will be too dry to sustain any precipitation. Maybe just enough
moisture with the combined lift from the front and a shortwave for
an isolated sprinkle to reach the ground in spots spots north and
east of the city early on, but will leave this out of the forecast.
Clear otherwise, and cold advection behind the front will allow for
temperatures to drop into the mid 20s well inland and Pine Barrens
Region even without radiational cooling - which may still briefly
occur late.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Deep-layered ridging occurs during this period with the center of
surface high pressure shifting east and reaching New England late
Monday night. Sunny and dry for Monday with highs 5-8 degrees below
normal. Cirrus thickens Monday night and prevents ideal radiational
cooling, but the airmass is still cold enough in spite of this for
lows to fall into the teens across the northern zones and Pine
Barrens Region. Freezing temperatures may even be realized in parts
of the city, Hudson County and Southern Nassau County where the
growing season has not yet officially ended. The cirrus brings some
uncertainty regarding how cold it gets for these locations, but even
the typically warmer NBM is cold enough for Freeze Watch
considerations. Have gone with a Freeze Watch for the Bronx, Staten
Island, Hudson County, and Southern Nassau County where confidence
in a widespread freeze is highest.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main impact during the long term period continues to be a
frontal system, with moderate to heavy rain and strong gusty winds,
impacting the region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.
For Thanksgiving day dry conditions and temperatures near normal are
expected.
There have been only minor changes with the system that impacts the
region late Tuesday into Wednesday. The system has trended a little
farther to the south, with the associated warm front not expected to
move into the area as the triple point low moves over the area early
Wednesday morning. Gusty east to southeast winds remain likely as
may be a few knots higher than previous forecast as a strong
pressure gradient force moves into mainly the southern half of the
region. However, maximum frequent gusts are expected to remain below
advisory levels. There may be a few gusts along the south shore of
western Long Island that do reach 40 to 45 kts late Tuesday night.
Also, with the upper flow flattening, and becoming more progressive,
the system will be moving out of the region a little faster, with
the rain tapering west to east late Wednesday morning into the
afternoon. Precipitable water values still are expected to increase
to around an inch Tuesday night. Moderate to heavy rainfall remains
possible across the forecast region, with the highest totals shifted
slightly farther to the south, mainly across the New York City
metropolitan area into western Long Island. At the start of the
precipitation enough cold air remains in place across the farther
interior for a rain/snow mix at the beginning.
Zonal flow develops behind the upper trough Wednesday night into
Friday, and with no cold air intrusions temperatures Thanksgiving
and into the upcoming weekend will be near to slightly below normal.
Also, the system moving up along the east coast for next weekend has
also trended a little quicker and precipitation may move in later
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front passes this evening. High pressure then gradually
builds in from the north and west going into Monday.
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period. Chance of
sprinkles at KGON through 2Z but is not included in TAF.
W winds become NW by 3Z behind the front. Removed gusts from
the TAFs as confidence in occurrence is low but occasional gusts
of 20-25kt possible, especially early. Winds diminish
overnight. NW to N winds around 10 kt expected on Monday. Wind
shifts more NE into the afternoon and evening.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind gusts may be more frequent than occasional prior to 4Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Mon Night: VFR with NE winds.
Tue: VFR to start, then MVFR and lower in rain. SE winds 10-20kt.
Tue night: IFR with rain. SE winds up to 25 kt. 2k ft winds around
40kt with marginal llws.
Wed: MVFR possible with NW flow.
Thu: VFR with NW flow.
Fri: VFR with N flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No changes to winds and seas at this time.
SCA remains in effect for all waters through tonight with a
cold front passing through early this evening. Seas on the ocean
remain elevated Monday morning, but with a weakening offshore
flow, gusts likely fall below 25 kt by the afternoon. Seas may
linger above 5 ft on the ocean past noontime, but not by much.
So SCA here remains posted through noon Monday. Winds veer NE
Monday night, but ocean seas should remain just below 5 ft.
With an increasing east to southeast flow ahead of an
approaching frontal system during Tuesday, small craft advisory
conditions are expected to develop on the western ocean waters
late in the day. Then through Tuesday night, as the low moves
into the waters, at least SCA conditions develop across all the
forecast waters. There is a chance of minimal gale force gusts
across the waters late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Small craft conditions will then continue on the water through
Wednesday night. Wind gusts and seas will gradually fall below
advisory levels from west to east during Thanksgiving day as
high pressure builds to the west. Small craft conditions may
linger on the eastern ocean waters into Thursday evening.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Mainly dry conditions are forecast through Tuesday with no
hydrologic impacts expected.
Moderate to heavy rain is likely Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning, with minor and nuisance flooding possible. There is the
potential for 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, with locally higher
amounts up to 2 inches possible. The Weather Prediction Center has
placed southwestern portions of the area in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall with this system.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
While astronomical tides remain relatively low into the beginning of
the week, an increasing southeast flow Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night ahead of a frontal system will allow forecast surge to
increase quickly. Local to widespread minor coastal flooding is
becoming more likely for portions of the coastline during the
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning high tide cycle.
Statements and advisories will likely be needed for portions of the
coast. The highest likelihood of reaching minor coastal flood
benchmarks are for the south shore bays of Queens, Nassau and SW
Suffolk, but also a good portion of the CT coast along with Lower
Westchester. Not as likely, but still possibly experiencing minor
flooding, would be the north shore of Nassau County, and spots
along Jamaica Bay and Staten Island.
The winds will switch quickly offshore during the day Wednesday,
thus at this time, subsequent high tide cycles are expected to fall
short of minor coastal flood benchmarks.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for NYZ073-074-179.
NJ...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for NJZ006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC