000
FXUS61 KOKX 221011
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
511 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks over the area this morning and passes to the
northeast in the afternoon. High pressure then builds in during
Thanksgiving Day and remains in control through at least the first
half of the weekend. A low pressure system may impact the area
Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface low pressure is currently deepening just to our south and
west as an associated mid-level shortwave approaches. This low
should pass directly over the area this morning. As the low
deepens and approaches along with the associated low level jet,
the pressure gradient increases across the area at first. This
will be relatively short lived as the pressure gradient and
winds will drop off quickly when the low moves overhead. In the
meantime, wind gusts along the coast could reach 40 mph, with
far eastern Suffolk County likely seeing gusts 45-50 mph. A Wind
Advisory remains in effect for southeast and northeast Suffolk
County. The widespread light to moderate rain will taper off
this morning, with the whole area likely dry by the afternoon.
The back edge of the rain has already worked into western
Orange County. A Flood Advisory has been issued for NYC and
portions of northeast NJ with some reports of minor flooding
after about 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. See Hydrology section
below.
Clouds stick around today with cyclonic flow aloft. Low pressure
slowly departs to the north and east. Highs will be in the mid 50s
to low 60s.
Another low forms off the coast tonight with a more potent mid-level
shortwave passing well to our south. The deepening of this low
increases the pressure gradient over our area and wind winds start
to increase again. Skies start to clear as dry air works into the
area, but with winds increasing it does not look like a good
radiational cooling night. Lows will be in the upper 30s to mid
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Heights rise aloft early Thursday before the pattern becomes zonal
through Thursday night. Aforementioned low pressure offshore
exits to the east as high pressure slowly builds in from the
west. The pressure gradient will be slowly decreasing through
the day and in turn the winds will be slowly decreasing. Expect
a northwest wind in the early morning around 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 20 to 25 mph to lower to 5 to 10 mph with gusts up
to 15 mph by the late afternoon. With lowering winds and clear
skies, Thursday night looks much better for radiational cooling.
Lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure then continues to remain in control through
Saturday with only a weak and dry cold front passing through at
some point late day/early evening Friday. Highs slightly below
normal on Friday, then even colder on Saturday with highs only
near 40 in most spots.
Weak low pressure off the Southeast coast heads north on Sunday,
passing just SE of the 40N/70W benchmark Monday morning. An inverted
trough extending north from the center of the low will bring some
moisture and lift to the forecast area with a chance of rain mainly
Sunday afternoon and night. Looking at GFS and ECMWF, thermal
profiles would support rain, however well north and west could see a
rain/snow mix until at some point perhaps during Sunday night when
thermal profiles warm up.
Likely dry for Monday and Tuesday as the storm heads farther away
east and weak high pressure fills in behind it through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure was moving off the southern New Jersey coast at 10Z
and will be moving over the region through 12Z, and then to the
east through this morning, moving east of the area early this
afternoon. High pressure then slowly builds in from the
southwest tonight.
Ceilings have lowered to IFR with light to moderate rain.
Briefly heavy rain is possible west until 10Z and east until
around 13Z. With a little faster movement of the low rain will
be tapering off across the western terminals 09Z to 10Z, 11Z to
13Z across southwestern Connecticut, and central Long Island,
and 13Z to 15Z east. Ceilings slowly improve during the morning,
but may not improve to VFR until this evening.
ESE winds 10-20 kt with G25-35kt early this morning, with the
highest winds and gusts at coastal terminals. A few gusts could
come close to 40 kt at KGON. LLWS is also likely until 10-12z
as winds reach 45-50 kt at 2kft.
As the low pressure moves across the area in the morning, winds will
diminish and may briefly become light and variable. Winds then
become WNW-NW in the afternoon around 10 kt or less, continuing into
the evening. WNW-NW winds should then increase late tonight with
gusts 15-20 kt possible at NYC terminals.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds have been diminishing with the gusts ending 10Z to 11Z.
Winds may become light and variable for a time 10Z to 12Z, and
shift to the WNW to NW.
Timing of wind shift to the WNW-NW late this morning/early this
afternoon may be off by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wed Night: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible late.
Thu: VFR with NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt. Locally
higher gusts possible.
Fri-Sat: VFR.
Sun: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR in showers late.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the western half of the waters
until 7am and for the eastern half until 1pm. On the ocean, wind
gusts up to 40 kts are possible, with 10 to 12 foot waves.
Elsewhere, wind gusts will be 35 to 40 kts. Once the Gale Warning
expires, a Small Craft Advisory will be needed on the ocean waters
with lingering elevated waves. Wave heights likely don`t drop
below 5 ft until Thursday night.
Sub-advisory conditions then continue through Sunday with the
exception of a period of 25kt+ gusts on the ocean Friday night
behind a cold front passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A widespread light to moderate rain will tapper off from west to
east this morning. by the afternoon, the area should be dry. An
additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches is forecast. Ponding, as well as
some minor urban and poor drainage flooding, is possible. A
Flood Advisory is in effect for NYC and portions of northeast
NJ. Flash flooding is not expected.
There are no hydrologic concerns Wednesday afternoon through early
next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
With the high tide cycle having passed across the southern areas
of New York City, and Southern Nassau county, and into Hudson,
Essex, and Union counties of New Jersey, the coastal flooding
advisories and coastal flood statement were cancelled. And with
a brief touch at the minor coastal flooding benchmarks along
the shores of Middlesex and New London Counties, the coastal
flood statement will end at 12Z.
Otherwise, no other changes were made to the remaining coastal
flood advisories for this morning.
Surge will be peaking across Long Island Sound through 12Z as
southeast to east winds continue as low pressure tracks to the
south of New York City. Only minor adjustments were made to the
total water levels across the shores of Long Island Sound.
Surge forecasts remain mostly in the 2 to 2.5 ft range with
some locally higher surges up to 3 ft. Parts of Western LI
Sound Shorelines have the higher end of the surge, more in the
2.5 to 3 ft range.
This morning`s high tide cycle will be the main tide cycle of
concern with regards to coastal flooding as winds become more
westerly for the next high tide cycle. However, while this will
preclude most additional minor coastal flooding, some residual
minor coastal flooding will still be possible along the south
shore backs bays of Nassau and Suffolk during the time of high
tide Wednesday aft/eve. This would most likely be localized in
nature and due to water levels having some difficulty draining
due to a SE swell.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for CTZ009-
010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ071-
073.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ078-
079-176-177.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ079-081.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ080-
081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-332-340-
350-353.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ335-338-345-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JC/JT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...