000
FXUS61 KOKX 221214
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
714 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure tracks over the area this morning and passes to
the northeast in the afternoon. High pressure then builds in
during Thanksgiving Day and remains in control through at least
the first half of the weekend. A low pressure system may impact
the area Sunday into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface low pressure continues to deepen just to our south as an
associated mid-level shortwave approaches. This low will pass
directly over us this morning. Winds have already lowered
significantly over western portions of the area as the pressure
gradient decreases with the low approaching. However, farther
east with a low level jet and tight pressure gradient wind
gusts along the coast could reach 40 mph, with far eastern
Suffolk County likely seeing gusts 45-50 mph. A Wind Advisory
remains in effect for southeast and northeast Suffolk County.
Rain continues to be light to moderate widespread over the
eastern two thirds of the area. See Hydrology section below.
Clouds stick around today with cyclonic flow aloft. Low pressure
slowly departs to the north and east. Highs will be in the mid 50s
to low 60s.
Another low forms off the coast tonight with a more potent mid-level
shortwave passing well to our south. The deepening of this low
increases the pressure gradient over our area and wind winds start
to increase again. Skies start to clear as dry air works into the
area, but with winds increasing it does not look like a good
radiational cooling night. Lows will be in the upper 30s to mid
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Heights rise aloft early Thursday before the pattern becomes
zonal through Thursday night. Aforementioned low pressure
offshore exits to the east as high pressure slowly builds in
from the west. The pressure gradient will be slowly decreasing
through the day and in turn the winds will be slowly decreasing.
Expect a northwest wind in the early morning around 10 to 15
mph with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph to lower to 5 to 10 mph with
gusts up to 15 mph by the late afternoon. With lowering winds
and clear skies, Thursday night looks much better for
radiational cooling. Lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure then continues to remain in control through
Saturday with only a weak and dry cold front passing through at
some point late day/early evening Friday. Highs slightly below
normal on Friday, then even colder on Saturday with highs only
near 40 in most spots.
Weak low pressure off the Southeast coast heads north on Sunday,
passing just SE of the 40N/70W benchmark Monday morning. An inverted
trough extending north from the center of the low will bring some
moisture and lift to the forecast area with a chance of rain mainly
Sunday afternoon and night. Looking at GFS and ECMWF, thermal
profiles would support rain, however well north and west could see a
rain/snow mix until at some point perhaps during Sunday night when
thermal profiles warm up.
Likely dry for Monday and Tuesday as the storm heads farther away
east and weak high pressure fills in behind it through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure was passing just south of western Long Island at
11Z. The low will pass through Long Island and southern
Connecticut through this morning, and to the east this
afternoon. High pressure builds in from the west tonight as the
low tracks along the New England coast.
Conditions will be variable early this morning, from LIFR to
MVFR, with the timing of widespread MVFR uncertain, and may be
later than in the forecast. MVFR will prevail through the day,
and possibly into early this evening, especially at KGON.
Wind shifts and strength are dependent on the track of low
pressure through the region today, and winds may become light
and variable for a brief time as the center of the low passes
through the area east of New York City. Winds will eventually
become NW as the low moves east. With the low deepening to the
east and northeast tonight, and high pressure building in from
the west, gusty NW winds are expected to develop late.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of improvement from LIFR and IFR to MVFR may be later
than forecast.
Also, winds shifting to the NW at KLGA and KJFK will depend on
how quickly low pressure moves east of the New York City metro
area.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thu: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt, mainly in
the morning.
Fri-Sat: VFR.
Sun: VFR early, then a chance of MVFR in showers late.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The Gale Warning has been cancelled on the western waters and
been replaced with a Small Craft Advisory everywhere except the
New York Harbor where winds have quickly lowered. The Gale
Warning remains in effect on the western waters through mid-
morning. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed on the ocean
waters through Thursday with lingering waves. Currently, in the
waters under a Gale Warning, winds gusts could reach 40 kts. On
the ocean waters, wave heights peak at 12-13 ft.
Sub-advisory conditions expected Thursday night through Sunday
with the exception of a period of 25kt+ gusts on the ocean
Friday night behind a cold front passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A widespread light to moderate rain will tapper off from west to
east this morning. by the afternoon, the area should be dry. An
additional 0.5 to 1 inch is forecast. Ponding, as well as some
minor urban and poor drainage flooding, is possible. Flash
flooding is not expected.
There are no hydrologic concerns Wednesday afternoon through early
next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the high tide cycle having passed across the southern areas
of New York City, and Southern Nassau county, and into Hudson,
Essex, and Union counties of New Jersey, the coastal flooding
advisories and coastal flood statement were cancelled. And with
a brief touch at the minor coastal flooding benchmarks along
the shores of Middlesex and New London Counties, the coastal
flood statement will end at 12Z.
Otherwise, no other changes were made to the remaining coastal
flood advisories for this morning.
Surge will be peaking across Long Island Sound through 12Z as
southeast to east winds continue as low pressure tracks to the
south of New York City. Only minor adjustments were made to the
total water levels across the shores of Long Island Sound.
Surge forecasts remain mostly in the 2 to 2.5 ft range with
some locally higher surges up to 3 ft. Parts of Western LI
Sound Shorelines have the higher end of the surge, more in the
2.5 to 3 ft range.
This morning`s high tide cycle will be the main tide cycle of
concern with regards to coastal flooding as winds become more
westerly for the next high tide cycle. However, while this will
preclude most additional minor coastal flooding, some residual
minor coastal flooding will still be possible along the south
shore backs bays of Nassau and Suffolk during the time of high
tide Wednesday aft/eve. This would most likely be localized in
nature and due to water levels having some difficulty draining
due to a SE swell.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for CTZ009-
010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ071-
073.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ078-
079-176-177.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ079-081.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ080-
081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ331-332-340-
350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ335-
345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JC/JT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...