000
FXUS61 KOKX 221755
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1255 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to work slowly away from the area
and off the southeast New England coast by early this evening.
High pressure then builds in during Thanksgiving Day and remains
in control through at least the first half of the weekend. A
low pressure system may impact the area Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure has passed far eastern LI and SE CT with some
drizzle lingering behind. This is not expected to last for more
than 1-2 hours. Otherwise, the afternoon will remain dry and
mostly cloudy. There are some breaks around the NYC metro that
may work east through the afternoon. Much of the area received
1 to 2.5 inches of rainfall overnight into this morning.
Temperatures continue to fall behind the low in a W/NW flow.
Readings range from the lower to mid 40s inland to around 50 at
the coast. Temperatures should hold nearly steady.
Another low forms well off the coast tonight with a more potent
mid-level shortwave passing well to our south. The deepening of
this low increases the pressure gradient over our area and winds
start to increase again. Skies start to clear as dry air works
into the area, but with winds increasing it does not look like a
good radiational cooling night. Lows will be in the upper 30s
to mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Heights rise aloft early Thursday before the pattern becomes
zonal through Thursday night. Aforementioned low pressure
offshore exits to the east as high pressure slowly builds in
from the west. The pressure gradient will be slowly decreasing
through the day and in turn the winds will be slowly decreasing.
Expect a northwest wind in the early morning around 10 to 15
mph with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph to lower to 5 to 10 mph with
gusts up to 15 mph by the late afternoon. With lowering winds
and clear skies, Thursday night looks much better for
radiational cooling. Lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure then continues to remain in control through
Saturday with only a weak and dry cold front passing through at
some point late day/early evening Friday. Highs slightly below
normal on Friday, then even colder on Saturday with highs only
near 40 in most spots.
Weak low pressure off the Southeast coast heads north on Sunday,
passing just SE of the 40N/70W benchmark Monday morning. An inverted
trough extending north from the center of the low will bring some
moisture and lift to the forecast area with a chance of rain mainly
Sunday afternoon and night. Looking at GFS and ECMWF, thermal
profiles would support rain, however well north and west could see a
rain/snow mix until at some point perhaps during Sunday night when
thermal profiles warm up.
Likely dry for Monday and Tuesday as the storm heads farther away
east and weak high pressure fills in behind it through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will pass to the east this afternoon and evening.
High pressure builds in from the west tonight as the low tracks
along the New England coast.
Ceilings will be variable into early this afternoon but widespread
MVFR will generally prevail through the afternoon and much of
this evening.
Winds 10-15 kt will eventually become NW as the low moves east.
With the low deepening to the east and northeast tonight, and
high pressure building in from the west, gusty NW winds 20-25kt are
expected to develop late tonight and continue into Thursday
morning.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely to reflect variable ceiling and wind
direction.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18z Thu: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt
diminishing.
Fri-Sat: VFR.
Sun: VFR early, then a chance of MVFR in showers late.
Mon: Chance of showers early otherwise becoming VFR. NW gusts to
25 kt in the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
All Gales have been dropped and replaced by a SCA on eastern LI
Sound and the ocean waters. Seas above 5 ft will linger on the
ocean into Thursday with NW gusts of 20 to 25 kt on all waters
tonight. There is a chance that a SCA will be hoisted for
tonight across the non-ocean waters with marginal NW gusts.
Seas will start off at to 10 to 12 ft on the ocean and 4 to 7 ft
on eastern LI Sound east of the CT river, gradually subsiding
into Thursday.
Sub-advisory conditions expected Thursday night through Sunday
with the exception of a period of 25kt+ gusts on the ocean
Friday night behind a cold front passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding has ended this morning and there is no longer a
threat as winds become W to NW allowing water levels to gradually
lower.
However, while this will preclude most additional minor coastal
flooding, some residual minor coastal flooding will still be
possible along the south shore backs bays of Nassau and Suffolk
during the time of high tide this aft/eve. It looks spotty at
best as this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JT
NEAR TERM...JT/DW
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JC/JT
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...