000
FXUS61 KOKX 230020
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
720 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure east of New England tonight will track
slowly northeast through Thanksgiving Day, while high pressure
builds in from the southwest. A cold front will then pass through
the area dry on Friday. High pressure builds over the region on
Saturday, sliding offshore by Sunday. A low pressure system then
impacts the area late Sunday into Monday as it passes just
offshore. High pressure gradually builds back in through mid
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A 998 mb low analyzed at 22Z over the Gulf of Maine will
continue pulling off to the northeast and away from the region
this evening with dryer conditions in its wake. Increasing NW
flow tonight as the low exits and high pressure builds in from
the west. Forecast remains on track.

Multiple shortwaves one in the northern branch of the polar jet,
and the other in the southern branch, will phase well offshore
tonight, allowing for a rapidly deepening low east of New
England. At the same time, high pressure will begin to nose in
from the SW. This will allow for an increasing pressure gradient
and the potential for gusty NW winds before daybreak. There is
some uncertainty to how mixed the airmass will be with only weak
cold advection and neutral to anticyclonic flow. Closer to the
coast and the warmer marine waters, mixing will be enhanced
with gusts up to around 25 mph possible, but weaker inland. It
will also be mostly cloudy to start with some clearing behind
the shortwave trough later tonight. Lows tonight will range
from the upper 30s inland to the lower 40s at the coast. The
cloud cover and winds will keep it a bit above normal.

For Thanksgiving Day, NW winds at the start of the day will
gust to around 20 mph, but then gradually back off toward the
afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny with daytime highs near
normal, ranging from the upper 40s inland, to the lower 50s at
the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A broad upper vortex tracking across eastern Canada Thursday
night into Friday will send a dry cold frontal passage through
the region Friday late morning into the afternoon. NW winds may
gust up to 20 mph behind the front with highs only getting into
the upper 40s. This is slightly below normal. Morning lows
Friday will be in the lower to mid 30s, but closer to 40 for
the NYC metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The period begins on a cold note, with CAD behind a dry fropa
Friday as surface high pressure builds in from the west. Friday
night looks to be the first widespread freeze of the season,
including the NYC metro, with morning lows ranging from the
lower 20s to around 30. BUFKIT soundings prog 925 mb
temperatures as low as
-6C to -8C on Saturday, and most should struggle to climb out of the
30s in the afternoon, or about 10 degrees below normal for late
November.

High pressure builds overhead on Saturday, maintaining dry
conditions for the first half of the weekend. The high slides
offshore Saturday night ahead of a digging upper trough over the
Central US. As this trough swings east, surface low pressure spins
up off the Southeast coast and tracks north on Sunday, passing near
the 40N/70W benchmark Monday morning. This should bring a period of
precipitation beginning Sunday evening. With SE flow, and limited
cold air in place, this appears to be predominantly liquid event for
the local region. While a bit of wet snow is possible at the onset
in parts of the lower Hudson Valley, this looks to be brief, if it
occurs at all. NBM probabilities for measurable snow (0.1"+) are
mostly confined to Orange Co, but even here, remain under 20%.

Drying conditions late Monday as the low pulls off into the Canadian
Maritimes. Behind it, global guidance is in good agreement that a
deep longwave trough sets up over the Eastern US, with several days
of below normal temperatures likely. Despite the colder regime, dry
conditions look to persist into mid next week as high pressure
gradually builds back into the region. Generally followed the NBM
for this update, with subtle adjustment.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the west tonight as low pressure tracks
along the New England coast.

Low end VFR conditions expected to continue tonight, with
occasional MVFR conditions at times. KSWF and KGON will remain
MVFR over the next few hours, but should slowly improve toward
VFR as the night progresses. VFR then expected for the
remainder of the TAF period.

NW Winds less than 10 kt for the first half of the night. Winds
increase to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt later tonight (mainly
after 08Z) and continue into Thursday morning. Winds may be
more occasional than frequent. Wind gusts diminish after noon
Thursday, or sooner if they tend to be more occasional.

 ...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for changing flight categories and wind speed
magnitude and direction. Wind gusts tonight may be more
occasional than frequent. Wind gusts may end sooner than
forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thu night: VFR.

Fri-Sat: VFR.

Sun: VFR early, then a chance of MVFR in showers late.

Mon: Chance of showers early otherwise becoming VFR. NW gusts to
25 kt in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A tightening pressure gradient due to deepening low pressure
east of New England and high pressure nosing in from the SW will
bring marginal SCA conditions to most of the non-ocean waters
(except NY Harbor). For the ocean, lingering high seas and
gusts 25 to 30 kt will keep a SCA in effect through the day
Thursday. There is a chance some 5 ft seas linger into Thursday
evening, especially east of Moriches Inlet.

Sub-advisory conditions expected on all waters Friday through
Sunday.

A period of SCA conditions appears possible early next week as low
pressure passes nearby. Increasing SE flow associated with this
system may allow gusts to exceed 25 kt on Monday, especially on the
ocean. Winds lower by Tuesday, though ocean seas potentially linger
at or above 5 ft into mid next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     ANZ331-335-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW