000
FXUS61 KOKX 231133
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
633 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deepening low pressure off the New England coast will slowly
track northeast today as high pressure builds in from the west.
A cold front passes through dry on Friday. High pressure then
continues to build in and remains in control through Saturday
night. High pressure off the New England coast Sunday tracks
east as deepening low pressure moves along the Mid Atlantic
coast. The low impacts the region late Sunday into Monday,
passing to the northeast Monday. High pressure gradually builds
back in through the middle of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is mainly on track this morning. Adjusted the
forecast to capture current obs and trends. Otherwise, a potent
shortwave trough is currently passing well south of the area and
can be seen quite well on water vapor satellite imagery. This
shortwave will allow for rapid deepening of a surface low well
offshore. However, with the low deepening, and high pressure
building in from the west, the pressure gradient tightens over
the area early this morning and brings the potential for gusty
northwest winds. Wind gusts have reached 25 to 30 mph, mainly at
the coast. Winds will gradually decrease through the day today.
Heights rise aloft briefly behind the departing shortwave
before the flow becomes mainly zonal. Skies should clear early
this morning leading to a mostly sunny day. Highs will be in the
low 50s.
Skies remain clear tonight, but winds likely stay up enough to
limit radiational cooling effects. Lows will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure continues to build in on Friday and remains in
control through Saturday night. Heights aloft start to fall
slightly on Friday ahead of a broad mid-level trough. This
trough will send a dry cold front through the area. Cold and dry
air filters in behind the frontal passage leading to well below
normal temperatures. Friday night looks to be the first
widespread freeze of the season, with Saturday morning lows
ranging from the lower 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Saturday
struggle to make it out of the 30s, with 925mb temps around -6C
to -8C.
High pressure shifts offshore Saturday evening and a very light
return flow sets up. Temperatures Saturday night will likely
only be a few degrees warmer than Friday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A near zonal and progressive upper flow will bring an
amplifying trough to the east coast by late in the day Sunday.
Meanwhile, a southern branch shortwave phases with the northern
trough and then tracks northward along the east coast through
Monday night. The associated surface low with the southern
branch will become the may low Sunday night, as the low deepens
quickly through Monday and tracks into the Canadian Maritimes.
With increased confidence, and persistence, have increased
probabilities for precipitation Sunday night to categorical.
There is no cold air in place, so all the precipitation n will
be liquid. With the low remaining in southeastern Canada through
Tuesday, and a cyclonic flow across the region, there is a very
low chance of a few sprinkles or snow showers reaching into
Orange county Monday as northwest flow moves across Lake
Ontario. And with colder air for Tuesday, there is a low chance
of snow showers across portions of Orange County as the
northwest flow persists. At this time have kept probabilities
below slight chance as per the NBM. Thereafter, dry weather is
expected into the middle of next week as high pressure builds
into the region.
Temperatures will be near normal Sunday and Monday, and then
with the cold air moving in Monday night temperatures will be
nearly 10 degrees below normal into the middle of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over the area weakens late today into tonight as
a cold front approaches to the northwest.
VFR.
A NW flow continues this morning, with gusts to around 20 kt.
Gusts may become more occasional mid to late morning, and gusts
may end an hour or two earlier than forecast. And through the
day winds gradually back to WNW. Generally there will be a
west flow less than 10 kt tonight.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind gusts may diminish and end sooner than forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Fri-Sat: VFR.
Sun: VFR early, then MVFR in rain late in the day and Sunday night.
Mon: VFR at the NYC metro terminals and northwest. A chance of rain
early east with MVFR, then becoming VFR. WNW wind 15-20kt, gusts 25-
30kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters until 15z
with 25 kt wind gusts expected. The SCA for the western ocean
zone will continue through the whole day and for the eastern two
ocean zones the SCA will continue until 06z tonight. This is
due to lingering 5 to 7 ft waves. Thereafter, sub-SCA conditions
are expected on all waters through Saturday night. There may be
a very brief period of 25 kt gusts Friday evening with the
passage of a cold front.
Sub-advisory conditions are expected on all waters Sunday. Then with
a deepening low moving along the Mid Atlantic and New England coasts
Sunday night through Monday small craft advisory gusts develop on
the ocean waters in an increasing south to southeast flow Sunday
night. Small craft conditions develop on all the forecast waters
Monday in the strong and gusty west to northwest flow. The northwest
flow continues into Tuesday night with a strong pressure gradient
across the waters with deep low pressure over southeastern Canada
and high pressure builds into the southwest. Conditions will be
slowly improving across the western waters late Tuesday, and across
the non ocean waters late Tuesday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ331-
332-335-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT