000
FXUS61 KOKX 231535
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1035 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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Deepening low pressure off the New England coast will slowly
track northeast today as high pressure builds in from the
southwest. A cold front passes through dry on Friday. High
pressure then continues to build in and remains in control
through Saturday night. High pressure off the New England coast
Sunday tracks east as deepening low pressure moves along the Mid
Atlantic coast. The low impacts the region late Sunday into
Monday, passing to the northeast Monday. High pressure gradually
builds back in through the middle of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The combination of deepening low pressure east of New England
and high pressure nosing in from the southwest will result in a
gusty NW flow to start the day, but subsiding late this morning
into this afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph possible this morning,
strongest near the coast. Under sunny skies, highs will range
from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Skies remain clear tonight, but winds likely stay up enough to
limit the full potential of radiational cooling. Lows will be
in the low 30s inland to around 40 across the NYC metro.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to build in on Friday and remains in
control through Saturday night. Heights aloft start to fall
slightly on Friday ahead of a broad mid-level trough. This
trough will send a dry cold front through the area. Cold and dry
air filters in behind the frontal passage leading to well below
normal temperatures. Friday night looks to be the first
widespread freeze of the season, with Saturday morning lows
ranging from the lower 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Saturday
struggle to make it out of the 30s, with 925mb temps around -6C
to -8C.

High pressure shifts offshore Saturday evening and a very light
return flow sets up. Temperatures Saturday night will likely
only be a few degrees warmer than Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A near zonal and progressive upper flow will bring an
amplifying trough to the east coast by late in the day Sunday.
Meanwhile, a southern branch shortwave phases with the northern
trough and then tracks northward along the east coast through
Monday night. The associated surface low with the southern
branch will become the may low Sunday night, as the low deepens
quickly through Monday and tracks into the Canadian Maritimes.
With increased confidence, and persistence, have increased
probabilities for precipitation Sunday night to categorical.
There is no cold air in place, so all the precipitation n will
be liquid. With the low remaining in southeastern Canada through
Tuesday, and a cyclonic flow across the region, there is a very
low chance of a few sprinkles or snow showers reaching into
Orange county Monday as northwest flow moves across Lake
Ontario. And with colder air for Tuesday, there is a low chance
of snow showers across portions of Orange County as the
northwest flow persists. At this time have kept probabilities
below slight chance as per the NBM. Thereafter, dry weather is
expected into the middle of next week as high pressure builds
into the region.

Temperatures will be near normal Sunday and Monday, and then
with the cold air moving in Monday night temperatures will be
nearly 10 degrees below normal into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Deepening low pressure off the New England coast will slowly
track northeast today as high pressure builds in from the
southwest.

VFR.

A NW flow continues today, with gusts up to 25 kt. Gusts may
become more occasional late morning, and gusts may end an hour
or two earlier than forecast. Winds gradually back to WNW early
this afternoon. Generally there will be a west flow less than
10 kt tonight.

 ...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind gusts may diminish and end sooner than forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Fri-Sat: VFR.

Sun: VFR early, then MVFR in rain late in the day and Sunday night.

Mon: VFR at the NYC metro terminals and northwest. A chance of rain
early east with MVFR, then becoming VFR. WNW wind 15-20kt, gusts 25-
30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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SCA has been extended on the non-ocean waters through noon as
winds remain gusty over the warmer marine waters.

The SCA for the western ocean zone may need to be dropped this
afternoon based on Buoy 44065 down to 4 ft and winds gusts
expected to subside below 25 kt by this afternoon. For the
ocean zones east of Fire Island Inlet, the SCA will continue
until 06z tonight, mainly due to lingering 5 to 7 ft waves.
Thereafter, sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters
through Saturday night. There may be a very brief period of 25
kt gusts Friday evening with the passage of a cold front.

Sub-advisory conditions are expected on all waters Sunday. Then with
a deepening low moving along the Mid Atlantic and New England coasts
Sunday night through Monday small craft advisory gusts develop on
the ocean waters in an increasing south to southeast flow Sunday
night. Small craft conditions develop on all the forecast waters
Monday in the strong and gusty west to northwest flow. The northwest
flow continues into Tuesday night with a strong pressure gradient
across the waters with deep low pressure over southeastern Canada
and high pressure builds into the southwest. Conditions will be
slowly improving across the western waters late Tuesday, and across
the non ocean waters late Tuesday night.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ331-332-335-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW