000
FXUS61 KOKX 232353
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
653 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure well east of New England will continue to track
farther out into the Atlantic through tonight. A cold front
will then pass through the area dry on Friday. High pressure
builds over the area Saturday, and offshore Saturday night.
Deepening low pressure moves along the Mid Atlantic coast
Sunday, and impacts the region Sunday night into Monday. High
pressure gradually builds back in through the middle of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.
Previous discussion follows.
High pressure briefly noses in from the SW tonight as low
pressure well east of New England continues to work farther out
into the Atlantic. This will allow for a weakening W/NW flow.
At the same time, a large upper vortex tracking across eastern
Canada will send a cold front across the eastern Great Lakes
tonight and close to the area by daybreak.
Lows tonight will range form the lower 30s inland, to around 40
across the NYC metro. This is near normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will pass through the area dry during the late
morning into early afternoon hours followed by modest cold
advection. This will keep highs from getting out of the upper
40s under sunny skies. In addition, NW winds will pick back up
in the afternoon with gusts up 20 mph. These gusts may linger
into the early evening before high pressure builds in enough for
winds to start diminishing Friday night. This will be one of
the colder nights this fall and likely the coldest for the NYC
metro as temperatures are expected to drop just below freezing.
Elsewhere, reading will be in the 20s. This is about 7 to 8
degrees below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pres builds over the area on Sat and offshore Sat night. Highs
on Saturday struggle to make it out of the 30s, with 925mb temps
around -6C to -8C. Temperatures Saturday night will likely only be a
few degrees warmer than Friday night with very light return flow.
A near zonal and progressive upper flow will bring an amplifying
trough to the east coast by late in the day Sunday. Meanwhile, a
southern branch shortwave phases with the northern trough and then
tracks northward along the east coast through Monday night. The
associated surface low with the southern branch will become the may
low Sunday night, as the low deepens quickly through Monday and
tracks into the Canadian Maritimes. With increased confidence, and
persistence, have increased probabilities for precipitation Sunday
night to categorical. There is no cold air in place, so all the
precipitation will be liquid. With the low remaining in southeastern
Canada through Tuesday, and a cyclonic flow across the region, there
is a very low chance of a few sprinkles or snow showers reaching
into Orange county Monday as northwest flow moves across Lake
Ontario. And with colder air for Tuesday, there is a low chance of
snow showers across portions of Orange County as the northwest flow
persists. At this time have kept probabilities below slight chance
as per the NBM. Thereafter, dry weather is expected into the middle
of next week as high pressure builds into the region.
Temperatures will be near normal Sunday and Monday, and then with
the cold air moving in Monday night temperatures will be nearly 10
degrees below normal into the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the southwest. A cold front moves
through dry on Friday.
VFR through the TAF period.
Northwesterly winds will gradually be on the decrease through the
evening as high pressure builds toward the area. Winds will
remain out of the northwest on Friday at around 10-15 kt.
NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Fri night through Sat: VFR.
Sun: VFR early, then MVFR in rain late in the day and Sunday night.
Mon: VFR at the NYC metro terminals and northwest. A chance of rain
early east with MVFR, then becoming VFR. WNW wind 15-20kt, gusts 25-
30kt.
Tue: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions will continue primarily for seas on the ocean
zones east of Fire Island Inlet. This will end by the early
morning hours if not even a bit sooner. NW winds will gradually
diminish this evening. A dry cold frontal passage during the
late morning into early afternoon hours Friday will allow for
increasing NW winds. There is a chance for marginal SCA
conditions Friday evening/night for several hours before
subsiding. Confidence is too low at this time to issue.
Sub-advisory conditions are expected on all waters Sat-Sun. Then
with a deepening low moving along the Mid Atlantic and New England
coasts Sunday night through Monday small craft advisory gusts
develop on the ocean waters in an increasing south to southeast flow
Sunday night. Small craft conditions develop on all the forecast
waters Monday in the strong and gusty west to northwest flow. The
northwest flow continues into Tuesday night with a strong pressure
gradient across the waters with deep low pressure over southeastern
Canada and high pressure builds into the southwest. Conditions will
be slowly improving across the western waters late Tuesday, and
across the non ocean waters late Tuesday night. Winds and seas are
expected to be blw sca lvls on Wed.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW