000
FXUS61 KOKX 241731
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1231 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will continue moving across the area this afternoon.
High pressure then builds in through Saturday and moves
offshore Saturday night. Deepening low pressure moves along the
Mid Atlantic coast Sunday, and impacts the region Sunday night
into Monday. High pressure gradually builds back in through the
middle of next week, and weakens late in the week as low
pressure passes to the north.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Adjusted temperatures up another few degrees, especially across
Long Island, urban NE NJ, and coastal CT. Highs have likely been
reached with temperatures leveling off into middle afternoon
before falling late afternoon and evening once cold advection
commences.

Otherwise, a large upper vortex tracking across eastern Canada
will help bring the coldest air mass of Fall 2023 tonight into
the first half of the weekend. There will be some wind gusts
20-25 mph this evening, especially closer to the coast.
Gusts will be more likely over eastern portions of the area
where there will be a slightly tighter pressure gradient and
stronger winds to mix down, specifically at coastal locations
where warm waters will aid in mixing. High pressure builds in
behind the departing front tonight leading to the coldest night
of the season, with the whole area (including NYC) seeing a
freeze.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through most of the weekend. A cold
airmass with 925mb temperatures on Saturday -5C to -8C will keep
highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. High pressure shifts offshore
Saturday night and a very light return flow sets up. With winds
being so light, the southwesterly flow should not affect
radiational cooling too much, however, there may be some clouds
around. Current forecast has lows a few degrees warmer than
Friday night.

High pressure shifts farther offshore on Sunday and surface low
pressure and associated mid-level trough approach from the west
while a deepening coastal low approaches from the south. Much of
Sunday will likely be dry, but introduced slight chance PoPs at
the very end of the Sunday day period. Went a bit higher than
NBM given latest deterministic guidance, but it is very possible
any rain holds off till Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period remains mostly consistent with previous
forecast, with the amplifying northern stream trough phasing
with a souther stream shortwave, Sunday night into Monday. Minor
changes have the northern stream trough amplifying more than
previous forecast, which then keeps the southern shortwave a
little farther to the south, and then southeast of the area by
Monday morning. However, precipitation does move into the region
quickly early Sunday evening. And with the progression of the
upper flow the low quickly tracks to the east and northeast
Monday with the precipitation ending across the region by the
afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly above normal and an all
liquid event is expected across the forecast region. With
strong cold air advection in the wake of the low Monday, and
strong winds aloft, gusty winds are expected, started the gusts
earlier than the previous forecast, and and with the
possibility of gusts as high as 30kt have used the NBM the
percentile for gusts, which is a few knots higher than the NBM.
Deep cyclonic flow continues into Tuesday with a strong pressure
gradient and gusty winds will continue Tuesday, and again used
the NBM the percentile for gusts. High pressure builds
Wednesday and winds and gusts will not be as strong.

Monday night temperatures will be a few degrees below normal,
however, as the colder air moves in temperatures Tuesday through
Wednesday will be around 10 degrees below normal levels. The
NBM seems to have captured the colder air and the NBM was used
for highs and lows.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west through the afternoon as
the dry cold front continues to move east of the terminals and
offshore.

VFR. Clouds have scattered out with just some high cirrus
streaming in from the SW.

Gusty NW winds are expected to increase to 20-25kts over the
next few hours, where they have not already, with the frontal
passage. Gusts will continue until 00Z or just after, as winds
will diminish into the overnight. Winds may become more westerly
after daybreak and increase to 5-10kts.


 ...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Sat: VFR.

Sun: VFR. MVFR possible late in the day with rain. MVFR with rain
Sunday night. SE wind 15-20kt, G25-30kt, becoming SW and diminishing
toward morning.

Mon: VFR at the NYC metro terminals and northwest. A chance of rain
early east with MVFR, then becoming VFR. WNW wind 15-20kt, G25-30kt.

Tue: VFR. W wind 15-20kt, G25-30kt.

Wed: VFR. W wind 10-15kt, G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will begin to increase on the waters today, but should
remain below 25 kt until tonight behind a cold front passage.
There is higher confidence in 25 kt gusts over the ocean,
eastern Sound and Peconic and Gardiners Bays, but 25 kt gusts
are possible on all waters and have issued a Small Craft
Advisory for tonight. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected
Saturday through Sunday as high pressure builds into the area
and remains in control.

With deepening low pressure passing through the forecast waters
Sunday night and then to the northeast Monday SCA conditions will be
developing on the forecast waters Sunday night. There is a chance of
minimal gale gusts on the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet,
and the eastern Long Island Sound late Sunday night into Monday
morning. With a strong and gusty west to northwest flow continuing
into Tuesday SCA conditions continue on most of the non ocean
waters, with gale gusts on the ocean waters and eastern Long Island
Sound redeveloping late Monday and continuing into Tuesday. With
high pressure building into the waters small craft conditions will
be diminishing west to east Tuesday night on the non ocean waters,
with SCA conditions continuing on the ocean Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Sunday evening.

One half to one inch of rainfall is likely Sunday night into Monday
morning with no hydrologic concerns. Dry weather returns Monday
afternoon through Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides will be increasing into early next week due
to a full moon early Monday morning. There is not much in the
way of forcing/surge this weekend. However, some of the guidance
brings the most vulnerable locations in the south shore back
bays of Nassau County close to minor benchmarks with the Sunday
morning high tide. Minor coastal flooding appears more likely
for the south shore back bays of Nassau and Queens, Western Long
Island Sound across coastal Westchester and coastal Fairfield
with the Monday morning high tide. A quickly developing low
pressure may help bring enough of a surge (only around
0.50-0.75 ft needed) to reach minor benchmarks. It looks more
marginal across the Lower NY Harbor at the present time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ335-338.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...DS/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DS