000
FXUS61 KOKX 271216
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
716 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure over southern Maine will continue moving northeast,
reaching the Canadian Maritimes this afternoon and tonight. An
upper level disturbance will move across on Tuesday, then high
pressure over the Ohio Valley will build toward the Mid Atlantic
coast Tuesday night. A warm front will pass to the north on
Wednesday as the high reaches the coast. The high will then
remain in control Thursday into Friday. Low pressure will then
impact the region Friday afternoon and night, followed by high
pressure building back in on Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low pressure continues to pull away from the area through New
England. Skies have cleared over most of the area for now on a
gusty W flow, with temps dropping into the upper 30s and 40s.
Gusty W flow will continue today as temps rise to the upper 40s
and lower 50s. Cyclonic low level flow should allow a fair
amount of stratocu redevelopment today, then skies should begin
to clear later today, particularly along the coast.
Winds will be slow to diminish in the metro area and near the
coast tonight as skies become mostly clear throughout. Low
temps should range from 25-30 inland and parts of
central/eastern Long Island, to the lower 30s in the NYC metro
area and along the immediate coastline.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Below normal temps expected through the period, first as an
upper level shortwave trough moves across on Tue, then as high
pressure slides to the south on Wed. High temps on Tue should
only range from 35-40.
W-NW winds increase Tue afternoon and evening as the upper
level disturbance passes by, with gusts 30-35 mph likely
especially in the metro area and closer to the coast. Still
cannot rule out a few snow streamers/flurries across the
interior mainly well north and west of NYC Tue afternoon. CAA
Tue night will yield lows mostly in the 20s. Highs on Wed should
be similar to those of Tue despite a developing return flow as a
warm front passes well north, ranging from the mid 30s inland
to the lower 40s invof NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The flow aloft becomes somewhat flat Thursday into Friday with a
weak surface cold front passing through during Friday night.
Dry at least for Thursday through Friday morning. The cold front
will then combine with lift from a jet streak aloft and some
mid- level vorticity for chances of rain Friday afternoon into
night. Have capped PoPs at chance for now, but wouldn`t be
surprised if PoPs eventually get bumped into the likely category
for some point during this period. Highs mostly 45-50 on
Thursday, then milder at 50-55 with a SW wind.
High pressure builds in on Saturday with dry weather and near
normal highs around 50. The high retreats into SE Canada
during Sunday with overrunning rainfall possible ahead of an
approaching warm front.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west.
VFR. W winds increasing a little after sunrise to around 15kt
with gusts around 25kt. West winds diminish this evening, but
remaining gusty at around 20kt.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts 20-25kt possible before 13z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tonight: VFR. W winds gust around 20kt.
Tue: VFR. W wind increase to 20-25kt, G30-35kt in the afternoon.
Wed: VFR. SW wind 10-15kt, G20-25kt.
Thu: VFR. W-SW gusts around 20kt possible in the afternoon.
Fri: VFR in the morning, Chance MVFR and rain in the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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Gale warning replaced with SCA for the ern ocean waters where W
flow is likely no longer gusting to 35 kt. SCA in effect for
all other waters into tonight, with W winds gusting to 25-30 kt
and ocean seas 7-10 ft. A favorable westerly fetch should build
seas on the central/eastern Sound to at least 5-6 ft as well.
SCA conditions remain on the waters Tuesday and Tuesday night,
and there is still a good chance that gusts reach gale force on
the ocean waters Tuesday afternoon/night. Gales may also be on
the eastern Sound and bays of Long Island for a few hours
Tuesday evening as well.
SCA conditions continue Wednesday through at least Thursday on
the ocean with elevated seas of 4-6 ft and periods of westerly
gusts of around 25 kt. Sub-advisory conditions follow for
Thursday night and Friday morning, then SW winds increase with
a return of 25+ kt gusts on the ocean, along with seas building
above 5 ft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood advisory remains in effect for the south shore
back bays of Nassau and Queens for the high tide cycle this
morning, with departures of only 1/2 to 3/4 ft needed to reach
minor benchmarks. Water levels should remain below minor
flooding benchmarks elsewhere.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ178-
179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...