000
FXUS61 KOKX 271443
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
943 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure tracks into the Canadian Maritimes today. High
pressure over the Ohio Valley builds toward the Mid Atlantic coast
into midweek, sliding offshore by Thursday. Low pressure impacts
the region late Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast remains on track this morning. A sub 1000 mb low
continues to pull away from the area through New England. Skies
have cleared over most of the area for now on a gusty W flow,
and the wind will persist as temps rise to the upper 40s and
lower 50s this afternoon. Cyclonic low level flow should allow a
fair amount of stratocu redevelopment today, then skies begin
to clear this evening.
Low temps should range from 25-30 inland and parts of
central/eastern Long Island, to the lower 30s in the NYC metro
area and along the immediate coastline.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Below normal temps expected through the period, first as an
upper level shortwave trough moves across on Tue, then as high
pressure slides to the south on Wed. High temps on Tue should
only range from 35-40.
W-NW winds increase Tue afternoon and evening as the upper
level disturbance passes by, with gusts 30-35 mph likely
especially in the metro area and closer to the coast. Still
cannot rule out a few snow streamers/flurries across the
interior mainly well north and west of NYC Tue afternoon. CAA
Tue night will yield lows mostly in the 20s. Highs on Wed should
be similar to those of Tue despite a developing return flow as a
warm front passes well north, ranging from the mid 30s inland
to the lower 40s invof NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The flow aloft becomes somewhat flat Thursday into Friday with a
weak surface cold front passing through during Friday night.
Dry at least for Thursday through Friday morning. The cold front
will then combine with lift from a jet streak aloft and some
mid- level vorticity for chances of rain Friday afternoon into
night. Have capped PoPs at chance for now, but wouldn`t be
surprised if PoPs eventually get bumped into the likely category
for some point during this period. Highs mostly 45-50 on
Thursday, then milder at 50-55 with a SW wind.
High pressure builds in on Saturday with dry weather and near
normal highs around 50. The high retreats into SE Canada
during Sunday with overrunning rainfall possible ahead of an
approaching warm front.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west through Tuesday.
VFR. W winds increase this morning, becoming around 15 kt with gusts
around 25 kt this afternoon. West winds diminish this evening for
outlying terminals, but NYC terminals likely stay gusty around 20 kt
through the night.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Onset time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours late this morning.
Gusts could become occasional at times tonight at KJFK, KLGA, and
KEWR.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tonight: VFR. W winds gust around 20kt possible.
Tue: VFR. W wind increase to 20-25kt, G30-35kt in the afternoon.
Wed: VFR. SW wind 10-15kt, G20-25kt.
Thu: VFR. W-SW gusts around 20kt possible in the afternoon.
Fri: VFR in the morning, Chance MVFR and rain in the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Hoisted a Gale Warning for ocean waters beginning Tue 15Z,
running until 9Z Wed. Until then, SCA remains in effect here,
and on all other waters into tonight, with W winds gusting to
25-30 kt and ocean seas 7-10 ft. A favorable westerly fetch
should build seas on the central/eastern Sound to at least 5-6
ft as well.
SCA conditions remain on non ocean waters Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Gales may also be on the eastern Sound and bays of Long
Island for a few hours Tuesday evening as well.
SCA conditions continue through at least Wednesday on the ocean
with elevated seas of 4-6 ft and periods of westerly gusts of
around 25 kt. Sub-advisory conditions follow by Thursday and
early Friday, then SW winds increase with a return of 25+ kt
gusts on the ocean, along with seas building above 5 ft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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The Coastal Flood Advisory will be allowed to expire at 10 am for
the south shore back bays of Nassau and Queens. High tide has passed
and water levels are receding. Water levels should remain below
minor flooding benchmarks elsewhere.
There is a low chance for a few vulnerable locations along the south
shore back bays to touch minor coastal flooding benchmarks with
Tuesday morning high tide. No statements have been issued at this
time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ178-
179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for
ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG/DR
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC/DS
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DS