000
FXUS61 KOKX 271740
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1240 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure pulls away from the region and into southeastern
Canada today. High pressure over the Ohio Valley builds toward
the Mid Atlantic coast into midweek, sliding offshore by
Thursday. Low pressure impacts the region late Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A sub 1000 mb low continues to pull away from the area and into
southeastern Canada late this morning. Visible satellite shows
plenty of cu development behind a dry fropa making its way
through the region, and a good mix of sun and clouds can be
expected through the remainder of the day. In addition, a gusty
W wind persists through this evening.
Temperatures are already near their highs for the day, mid 40s
inland to mid 50s along the coast, and will sit here for a few
more hours before tumbling tonight in cold air advection.
Forecast lows range from 25 to 30 inland and parts of Long
Island, to the lower 30s in the NYC metro area and along the
immediate coastline.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Below normal temps expected through the period, first as an
upper level shortwave trough moves across on Tue, then as high
pressure slides to the south on Wed. High temps on Tue should
only range from 35-40.
W-NW winds increase Tue afternoon and evening as the upper
level disturbance passes by, with gusts 30-35 mph likely
especially in the metro area and closer to the coast. Still
cannot rule out a few snow streamers/flurries across the
interior mainly well north and west of NYC Tue afternoon. CAA
Tue night will yield lows mostly in the 20s. Highs on Wed should
be similar to those of Tue despite a developing return flow as a
warm front passes well north, ranging from the mid 30s inland
to the lower 40s invof NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The flow aloft becomes somewhat flat Thursday into Friday with a
weak surface cold front passing through during Friday night.
Dry at least for Thursday through Friday morning. The cold front
will then combine with lift from a jet streak aloft and some
mid- level vorticity for chances of rain Friday afternoon into
night. Have capped PoPs at chance for now, but wouldn`t be
surprised if PoPs eventually get bumped into the likely category
for some point during this period. Highs mostly 45-50 on
Thursday, then milder at 50-55 with a SW wind.
High pressure builds in on Saturday with dry weather and near
normal highs around 50. The high retreats into SE Canada
during Sunday with overrunning rainfall possible ahead of an
approaching warm front.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure builds in from the west through Tuesday.
W-WNW winds around 15 kt with gusts around 25 kt this afternoon
and early evening. Winds will weaken towards 00z with gusts at
outlying terminals ending. Gusts around 20 kt are likely to
continue at NYC terminals into early Tuesday morning. WNW winds
then increase again through late Tuesday morning, becoming 15-20
kt with gusts 25-30 kt.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction may vary 20 degrees from forecast at times into
this evening, but will remain south of 310 magnetic.
Gust could become occasional at KJFK, KLGA, and KEWR after 01z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tue PM: VFR. WNW winds 15-20kt, G30-35kt in the afternoon and
evening.
Wed: VFR. SW wind 10-15kt, G20-25kt.
Thu: VFR. W-SW gusts around 20kt possible in the afternoon.
Fri: VFR in the morning, Chance MVFR or lower and rain in the
afternoon and evening.
Sat: VFR. NW gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Hoisted a Gale Warning for ocean waters beginning Tue 15Z,
running until 9Z Wed. Until then, SCA remains in effect here,
and on all other waters into tonight, with W winds gusting to
25-30 kt and ocean seas 7-10 ft. A favorable westerly fetch
should build seas on the central/eastern Sound to at least 5-6
ft as well.
SCA conditions remain on non ocean waters Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Gales may also be on the eastern Sound and bays of Long
Island for a few hours Tuesday evening as well.
SCA conditions continue through at least Wednesday on the ocean
with elevated seas of 4-6 ft and periods of westerly gusts of
around 25 kt. Sub-advisory conditions follow by Thursday and
early Friday, then SW winds increase with a return of 25+ kt
gusts on the ocean, along with seas building above 5 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides remain elevated due to the recent full moon.
There is a low chance for a few vulnerable locations along the
south shore back bays to touch minor coastal flooding benchmarks
with Tuesday morning high tide. No statements have been issued
at this time. Otherwise, no additional coastal flooding is
anticipated through the middle of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for
ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG/DR
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...