000
FXUS61 KOKX 272043
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
343 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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In the wake of deepening low pressure tracking into Quebec, high
pressure over the Central US builds toward the East Coast through
midweek, sliding offshore by Thursday. A quick moving low pressure
system affects the region late Friday into Friday Night, with
high pressure building to the north in its wake for the weekend.
A stronger low pressure system may affect the region early next
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Low pressure continues to pull away from the region as it tracks
into Quebec, with a secondary cold front having moved through
earlier today. Behind it, gusty W flow advects in a much colder air
mass and temperatures tumble into tonight.

A fair mix of clouds should gradually erode after sunset, and the
region remains dry tonight as low temps bottom out in the 20s inland
and the lower 30s along the coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The coldest air mass of the season thus far settles over the region
into midweek.

Surface high pressure gradually builds in through the period,
centered over the Southeast US by Wednesday. Meanwhile, H5 heights
fall to 522 dam, or between 2 and 3 standard deviations from normal
for late November. 700 mb temps are progged -20C and -25C on Tuesday,
and with a well mixed BL, should translate to surface temperatures
in the 30s for most in the afternoon. Mixing up to near 700 mb on
Tuesday will allow for a blustery day as well, only adding to the
chill. W/WNW gusts 30 to 35 mph are likely in the metro area and
along the coast, with sustained speeds 15 to 25 mph. With the wind,
apparent temps remain in the 20s through the day, and fall into
the teens overnight into Wednesday. Air temperatures by daybreak
Wednesday range from around 20 inland, to the upper 20s in the
metro.

With the cold flow off the relatively warmer Great Lakes, a few lake-
effect streamers may manage to work into the lower Hudson Valley
Tuesday, and a few flurries can`t be entirely ruled out elsewhere.
Otherwise, expect another afternoon with a good mix of sun and
clouds. Similar conditions expected Wednesday, though winds begin
to diminish through the day. Highs on Wed should be near those
from Tue despite a developing return flow as a warm front passes
well north, with highs ranging from the mid 30s inland to the
lower 40s invof NYC.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Split flow regime to start the period, with the region between polar
jet running w to e across southern Canada around Hudson Bay low, and
PAC jet running across the southern US into Mid Atlantic around
Bermuda ridging. The region comes under greater influence of the
southern stream late week into the weekend as Hudson Bay low
gradually weakens.

At the surface, SE US high pressure gradually slides offshore
through the late week, with a moderating trend to seasonable temps
Thu and Fri. Meanwhile, good model agreement with a PAC shortwave
(sheared out remnant of closed upper low currently approaching the
Western US) approaching Friday and crossing Fri Night. Quick moving
resultant southern low pressure lifts towards the region Friday and
tracks over/near the region Fri Night, departing Sat. Synoptic setup
and NBM POWT consistent with a plain rain event, with progressive
movement keeping total rainfall amounts below 1".

Weak cold frontal passage in wake of this low on Saturday with high
pressure building into New England through the weekend, bringing dry
and seasonable conditions for the weekend.

Meanwhile, deep western US longwave troughing (result of several
northern stream shortwaves digging into the W US) gradually slides
east into the Central US through the late week/weekend. This will
induce a series of southern lows to developing along the stalled
cold front. General agreement in northern and southern stream
phasing and development of intense upper low and SSW jet structure
into the NE region, but inherent spread in timing, location,
intensity details this far out. This manifest in model differences
in evolution of a primary intense low pressure/frontal system during
the Sunday Night thru Tuesday time period, with inherently low
predictability in sensible weather details for the local area this
far out in time.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure builds in from the west through Tuesday.

W-WNW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt late this afternoon and
early evening. Winds will weaken towards 00z with gusts at outlying
terminals ending. Gusts around 20 kt are likely to continue at NYC
terminals into early Tuesday morning. WNW winds then increase again
through late Tuesday morning, becoming 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt.

 ...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind direction may vary 20 degrees from forecast at times into this
evening.

Gusts may end up occasional through tonight at KJFK, KLGA, and KEWR.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tue PM: VFR. WNW winds 15-20kt, G30-35kt in the afternoon and
evening.

Wed: VFR. SW wind 10-15kt, G20-25kt.

Thu: VFR. W-SW gusts around 20kt possible in the afternoon.

Fri: VFR in the morning, Chance MVFR or lower and rain in the
afternoon and evening.

Sat: VFR. NW gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Gusty west winds are leading to SCA conditions across all waters,
and have extended the SCA through Wed 9Z, with possible extension
thereafter. Gale Warning for ocean waters goes into effect Tue
15Z, running until 9Z Wed. Occasional gales possible on the eastern
LI Sound as well during this time, though coverage and duration
doesn`t appear high enough to warrant a warning for these waters.
A favorable westerly fetch should build seas on the central and
eastern Sound to at least 5-6 ft as well.

SCA conditions continue through at least Wednesday on the ocean with
elevated seas of 4-6 ft and periods of westerly gusts of around 25
kt. Marginal SCA wind gusts likely continue Wed Eve, subsiding
below overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes. Ocean seas
will follow suit, but likely take until Thursday morning as SW
wind swell falls below SCA.

A return to SCA conditions likely Thu Night thru Friday on ocean
waters with strengthening SW flow ahead of approaching frontal
system. Marginal SCA gusts possible for nearshore waters.

Winds likely subside below SCA Fri Night/Sat Am in wake of system,
with ocean seas to follow as S wind swell subsides.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides remain elevated due to the recent full moon early
Monday morning. Water levels are expected to remain below minor
benchmarks for the most vulnerable locations along the south shore
back bays with the Tuesday morning high tide.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/NV
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DR/NV
HYDROLOGY...DR/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DS