000
FXUS61 KOKX 281018
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
518 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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The are will remain between low pressure over eastern Canada
and high pressure over the central states. After an upper level
disturbance moves across this afternoon and evening, the high
will build toward the Mid Atlantic and Southeast states through
Thursday, while a warm front passes to the north on Wednesday. A
quick moving low pressure system will affect the region late
Friday into Friday night, with high pressure building to the
north in its wake for Saturday. A stronger low may affect the
region from Sunday into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Skies are clearing out east for the time being. Expect clouds to
return from the NW today as an upper trough moves across and
helps a few lake effect snow bands make it into the area. Per
HRRR forecasts the main push of these bands should begin late
this morning well NW of NYC, then drift SE toward the NYC metro
area early this afternoon, and then mainly across Long Island
later this afternoon. A few spots could see a quick coating of
accumulation, but do not expect this to be widespread. Another
brief round of snow showers may occur early this evening across
SE CT after the upper trough axis passes east and as another
trailing mid level vort max moves across.
Temps should start off warmer than initially forecast, with
upper 20s in the interior valleys and mostly lower 30s
elsewhere, but only reach the mid/upper 30s well inland and
lower 40s across the NYC metro area and along the coast
despite a deep/well-mixed BL.
W winds 15-25 mph with some gusts up to 30 mph should increase
further late this afternoon with passage of the trough axis,
and a few gusts 35-40 mph are possible in the metro area and
across Long Island toward evening. These winds will advect in
the coldest air mass of the season thus far for tonight, with
low temps in the 20s throughout and wind chills in the teens.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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On Wed winds will back WSW as the high drifts toward the coast,
while a warm front passing well NW leads to a period of clouds
during the afternoon/evening mainly inland. High temps should
be similar to those of today, mainly mid 30s to lower 40s.
Another cold night under mostly clear skies and diminishing
winds expected for Wed night, with lows from the lower 30s in
NYC to the 20s most elsewhere, to some teens in the interior
valleys.
The air mass will start to moderate on Thu as SW return flow
continues, with highs closer to normal under sunny skies.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The flow aloft will be somewhat flat Thursday night into Friday
with a weak surface cold front passing through during Friday
night. Dry at least through Friday morning. The cold front will
then combine with lift from a jet streak aloft and some mid-
level vorticity for rain Friday afternoon into night. High
pressure then builds in from the north on Saturday with dry
weather.
Forecast confidence then lowers Sunday into Monday with the next
potential storm to impact the region. There`s disagreement among
the global models regarding the timing and placement of low
pressure, however NBM favors the ECMWF/Canadian GDPS camp over
GFS. The forecast reflects this greater support. Low pressure
shifts through or nearby Sunday night/early Monday morning,
potentially with another low center passing well to our north.
Overrunning precipitation could occur as early as late Saturday
night, but the better precip chances appear to be more during
the Sunday afternoon through early Monday period. Capped PoPs at
50% for this event given the uncertainty. It would be mainly a
rain event for most spots, but wintry precip types would be
possible north of the city should precipitation occur late
Saturday night into Sunday morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure slowly builds in from the west.
VFR through the TAF period. There is however a slight chance of
snow showers/flurries with brief visibility restrictions late
this morning and afternoon primarily for KSWF and KHPN.
West winds around 15kt through the morning push with gusts
around 20kt for some terminals. Winds increase late this
morning into the afternoon closer to 20kt with gusts around
30kt, then diminish overnight.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts at KJFK and KLGA may be only occasional through the
morning push. Occasional gusts around 20kt possible at KEWR
through the morning push. Gusts of at least 30kt for
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR will be most likely during the period of 19z-23z,
with a peak gust of 35kt possible. During this same period,
KTEB could occasionally gust to 30kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late tonight: VFR. W winds 10-15kt. G20-25kt end by Weds AM
push.
Wed: VFR.
Thu: VFR.
Fri: VFR in the morning, MVFR or lower in rain in the afternoon
and night.
Sat: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Previous near/short term forecast thinking remains unchanged,
as a gale warning remains in effect for the ocean waters for
today and most of tonight as winds gust between 35-40 kt after
passage of an upper level disturbance, with the frame for
strongest winds from late this afternoon into this evening. SCA
also remains in effect for the remaining waters, and a few gusts
to gale force may be possible on the eastern Sound and bays
this evening. Ocean seas should build to 6-9 ft, and some 5-6
footers are also expected on the ern Sound, both peaking this
evening.
Sub-SCA conds expected on the non ocean waters daytime Wed, and
there may even be a brief lull on the ocean before WSW flow
increases, with gusts over 25 kt and seas 5-6 ft especially E of
Fire Island Inlet. Gusts may also reach 25 kt on the sound E of
Orient Point Wed evening.
Residual 5-ft seas should last on the ocean mainly E of Fire
Island Inlet into Thu morning.
A return to SCA conditions is likely Thu night thru Friday
morning on the ocean waters as SW flow strengthens again ahead
of an approaching frontal system. A brief period of sub-SCA
conditions is possible Friday afternoon as winds and seas
subside. For Friday night into Saturday, swell is expected to
build and push seas back over 5 ft. There is a chance that
this might not occur, which would lead to an extended period of
sub advisory conditions all the way through Saturday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC/JE
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG