000
FXUS61 KOKX 281444
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
944 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain between low pressure over eastern Canada
and high pressure over the central states today, as an upper
level disturbance moves across. High pressure will then build
from the Central states toward the Mid Atlantic and Southeast
states through Thursday, while a warm front passes to the north
on Wednesday. A quick moving low pressure system will affect the
region late Friday into Friday night, with high pressure
building to the north in its wake for Saturday. A stronger low
may affect the region from Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to
temperatures and dew points to reflect the most recent
observations and trends into the afternoon.
Mostly clear for the time being. Expect clouds to return from
the NW from late AM into this afternoon as an upper trough
moves across and helps a few lake effect snow bands make it into
the area. HRRR forecasts continue to show a lake band now over
the southern tier of central NY dropping SE and arriving late
this morning to the lower Hudson Valley, then heading into the
NYC metro area early this afternoon, and then across Long
Island later this afternoon. A few spots could see a quick
coating of accumulation, but do not expect this to be
widespread. Another brief round of snow showers may occur early
this evening across SE CT after the upper trough axis passes
east and as another trailing mid level vort max moves across.
Temps starting off from mid/upper 20s in the interior valleys
NW of NYC and mostly lower 30s elsewhere will only reach the
mid/upper 30s well inland and near 40 across the NYC metro area
and along the coast despite a deep/well-mixed BL. W winds 15-25
mph with some gusts up to 30 mph should increase further late
this afternoon with passage of the trough axis, and a few gusts
35-40 mph are possible in the metro area and across Long Island
toward evening. These winds will advect in the coldest air mass
of the season thus far for tonight, with low temps in the 20s
throughout and wind chills in the teens.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Wed winds will back WSW as the high drifts toward the coast,
while a warm front passing well NW leads to a period of clouds
during the afternoon/evening mainly inland. High temps should
be similar to those of today, mainly mid 30s to lower 40s.
Another cold night under mostly clear skies and diminishing
winds expected for Wed night, with lows from the lower 30s in
NYC to the 20s most elsewhere, to some teens in the interior
valleys.
The air mass will start to moderate on Thu as SW return flow
continues, with highs closer to normal under sunny skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The flow aloft will be somewhat flat Thursday night into Friday
with a weak surface cold front passing through during Friday
night. Dry at least through Friday morning. The cold front will
then combine with lift from a jet streak aloft and some mid-
level vorticity for rain Friday afternoon into night. High
pressure then builds in from the north on Saturday with dry
weather.
Forecast confidence then lowers Sunday into Monday with the next
potential storm to impact the region. There`s disagreement among
the global models regarding the timing and placement of low
pressure, however NBM favors the ECMWF/Canadian GDPS camp over
GFS. The forecast reflects this greater support. Low pressure
shifts through or nearby Sunday night/early Monday morning,
potentially with another low center passing well to our north.
Overrunning precipitation could occur as early as late Saturday
night, but the better precip chances appear to be more during
the Sunday afternoon through early Monday period. Capped PoPs at
50% for this event given the uncertainty. It would be mainly a
rain event for most spots, but wintry precip types would be
possible north of the city should precipitation occur late
Saturday night into Sunday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure slowly builds in from the west.
VFR through the TAF period. There is however a slight chance of
snow showers/flurries with brief visibility restrictions later
this afternoon primarily for KSWF and KHPN, but most terminals
stand a chance.
West winds around 15kt with gusts 20-25kt, increasing late this
afternoon closer to 20kt sustained with gusts around 30kt.
Winds then diminish overnight.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts of at least 30kt for KJFK/KLGA/KEWR will be most likely
during the period of 19z-23z, with a peak gust of 35kt possible.
During this same period, KTEB could occasionally gust to 30kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wed: VFR.
Thu: VFR.
Fri: VFR in the morning, MVFR or lower in rain in the afternoon
and night.
Sat: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Previous near/short term forecast thinking remains unchanged,
as a gale warning remains in effect for the ocean waters for
today and most of tonight as winds gust between 35-40 kt after
passage of an upper level disturbance, with the frame for
strongest winds from late this afternoon into this evening. SCA
also remains in effect for the remaining waters, and a few gusts
to gale force may be possible on the eastern Sound and bays
this evening. Ocean seas should build to 6-9 ft, and some 5-6
footers are also expected on the ern Sound, both peaking this
evening.
Sub-SCA conds expected on the non ocean waters daytime Wed, and
there may even be a brief lull on the ocean before WSW flow
increases, with gusts over 25 kt and seas 5-6 ft especially E of
Fire Island Inlet. Gusts may also reach 25 kt on the sound E of
Orient Point Wed evening.
Residual 5-ft seas should last on the ocean mainly E of Fire
Island Inlet into Thu morning.
A return to SCA conditions is likely Thu night thru Friday
morning on the ocean waters as SW flow strengthens again ahead
of an approaching frontal system. A brief period of sub-SCA
conditions is possible Friday afternoon as winds and seas
subside. For Friday night into Saturday, swell is expected to
build and push seas back over 5 ft. There is a chance that
this might not occur, which would lead to an extended period of
sub advisory conditions all the way through Saturday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No impacts expected with the rainfall during Friday into Friday
night.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG/MW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC/IRD
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG