000
FXUS61 KOKX 281735
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1235 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain between low pressure over eastern Canada
and high pressure over the central states today, as an upper
level disturbance moves across. High pressure will then build
from the Central states toward the Mid Atlantic and Southeast
states through Thursday, while a warm front passes to the north
on Wednesday. A quick moving low pressure system will affect the
region late Friday into Friday night, with high pressure
building to the north in its wake for Saturday. A stronger low
may affect the region from Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast continues to be on track with adjustments to
temperature, dew points, and PoPs to reflect the most recent
observations, trends, and conditions. Scattered snow showers
have continued to develop with the approach of a shortwave in
the embedded upper level trough that is pushing through this
afternoon. These snow showers should be fairly inconsequential
with perhaps a up to a light coating of snow on cooler and
grassy surfaces. These snow showers are expected to move through
the area over the next several hours and weaken later this
afternoon and into the early evening.
Temps will max out near 40 for the NYC metro with middle to
upper 30s elsewhere. W winds 15-25 mph with some gusts up to 30
mph late this afternoon with passage of the trough axis, and a
few gusts 35-40 mph are possible in the metro area and across
Long Island toward evening. These winds will advect in the
coldest air mass of the season thus far for tonight, with low
temps in the 20s throughout and wind chills in the teens.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Wed winds will back WSW as the high drifts toward the coast,
while a warm front passing well NW leads to a period of clouds
during the afternoon/evening mainly inland. High temps should
be similar to those of today, mainly mid 30s to lower 40s.
Another cold night under mostly clear skies and diminishing
winds expected for Wed night, with lows from the lower 30s in
NYC to the 20s most elsewhere, to some teens in the interior
valleys.
The air mass will start to moderate on Thu as SW return flow
continues, with highs closer to normal under sunny skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The flow aloft will be somewhat flat Thursday night into Friday
with a weak surface cold front passing through during Friday
night. Dry at least through Friday morning. The cold front will
then combine with lift from a jet streak aloft and some mid-
level vorticity for rain Friday afternoon into night. High
pressure then builds in from the north on Saturday with dry
weather.
Forecast confidence then lowers Sunday into Monday with the next
potential storm to impact the region. There`s disagreement among
the global models regarding the timing and placement of low
pressure, however NBM favors the ECMWF/Canadian GDPS camp over
GFS. The forecast reflects this greater support. Low pressure
shifts through or nearby Sunday night/early Monday morning,
potentially with another low center passing well to our north.
Overrunning precipitation could occur as early as late Saturday
night, but the better precip chances appear to be more during
the Sunday afternoon through early Monday period. Capped PoPs at
50% for this event given the uncertainty. It would be mainly a
rain event for most spots, but wintry precip types would be
possible north of the city should precipitation occur late
Saturday night into Sunday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure slowly builds in from the west.
VFR through the TAF period. There is however a slight chance of
snow showers/flurries with brief visibility restrictions later
this afternoon primarily for KSWF and KHPN, but most terminals
stand a chance. Added a brief Tempo to reflect this chance but
chances of any obstructions to visibility and MVFR ceilings
are low.
West winds around 15kt with gusts 20-25kt, increasing late this
afternoon closer to 20kt sustained with gusts around 30kt.
Winds then diminish overnight.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts of at least 30kt for KJFK/KLGA/KEWR will be most likely
during the period of 19z-23z, with a peak gust of 35kt possible.
During this same period, KTEB could occasionally gust to 30kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wed: VFR.
Thu: VFR.
Fri: VFR in the morning, MVFR or lower in rain in the afternoon
and night.
Sat: VFR.
Sun. Chance of rain or showers. MVFR or lower possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Previous near/short term forecast thinking remains unchanged,
as a gale warning remains in effect for the ocean waters for
today and most of tonight as winds gust between 35-40 kt after
passage of an upper level disturbance, with the frame for
strongest winds from late this afternoon into this evening. SCA
also remains in effect for the remaining waters, and a few gusts
to gale force may be possible on the eastern Sound and bays
this evening. Ocean seas should build to 6-9 ft, and some 5-6
footers are also expected on the ern Sound, both peaking this
evening.
Sub-SCA conds expected on the non ocean waters daytime Wed, and
there may even be a brief lull on the ocean before WSW flow
increases, with gusts over 25 kt and seas 5-6 ft especially E of
Fire Island Inlet. Gusts may also reach 25 kt on the sound E of
Orient Point Wed evening.
Residual 5-ft seas should last on the ocean mainly E of Fire
Island Inlet into Thu morning.
A return to SCA conditions is likely Thu night thru Friday
morning on the ocean waters as SW flow strengthens again ahead
of an approaching frontal system. A brief period of sub-SCA
conditions is possible Friday afternoon as winds and seas
subside. For Friday night into Saturday, swell is expected to
build and push seas back over 5 ft. There is a chance that
this might not occur, which would lead to an extended period of
sub advisory conditions all the way through Saturday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No impacts expected with the rainfall during Friday into Friday
night.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG/MW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG