000
FXUS61 KOKX 282343
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
643 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds into the area and remains in place through
Thursday. A series of weak low pressure systems will produce
chances for precipitation Friday, Sunday, and early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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An upper level shortwave pushes through the area this evening
allowing for any residual snow showers to dissipate. At the
surface, high pressure builds in from the southwest as a large
low pressure system to the northeast over Southeast Canada
pushes further away from the area. This will continue to allow
for a tight pressure gradient through the overnight period. A
brisk W/WNW flow advects some of the coldest air seen thus far
this season into the area.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to middle 20s for much
of the area. The NYC metro will see temperatures around 30.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to build into the area on Wednesday
with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions expected. While the
pressure gradient slowly relaxes, a brisk W/WNW wind at 10-15
mph with some gusts up to 20 mph will continue to advect cool
air into the area. As a result, high temperatures during the day
on Wednesday will only rise into the middle to upper 30s for
much of the area. Some areas along the coast may near 40
degrees, about 10 degrees below average.

Another cold night is expected Wednesday night with lows in the low
to middle 20s for much of the area. Coastal areas and the NYC metro
should drop to around freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warming trend on Thu as a weak thermal ridge builds in and the
flow aloft flattens. This will result in a 10 degree jump in temps
from Wed. The NBM was used.

A srn stream wave moves thru on Fri. The modeling is in pretty good
agreement with this feature. This should produce a round of rain
across the area, ending by Sat mrng per the 12Z guidance. The sys is
progressive and lacks strong advection, so mainly a lgt to mdt
rain swath is expected attm.

There is a chance for some shwrs or lgt rain on Sat with swly flow
aloft. However, chances are relatively low with mid lvl dry air to
overcome. Pops are in the 20 percent range for Sat.

Mild Fri and Sat and the NBM was used. Highs in the 40s to around 50
expected attm.

Continued mild on Sun with highs still in the 40s and 50s. A nrn
stream trof begins to dig down on Sun, allowing weak low pres to
develop off the coast. This sys will result in chances for rain on
Sun.

The upr trof may dig into the region Mon and Tue, allowing another
low to take shape. Model uncertainty is high this far out, so the
consensus approach with the NBM was used. However, there is the
potential for this portion of the fcst to turn out colder, with
perhaps some wintry pcpn at least across the interior.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure slowly builds in from the southwest through the first
half of Wednesday, with the high settling to the south Wednesday
night.

VFR through the TAF period.

West winds slowly diminish tonight with gusts lingering for the city
terminals until 5-9z. West winds around 10 kt expected on Wednesday,
with more of a southwest wind direction later in the day.

 ...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind gusts may end earlier than expected tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wed night-Thu: VFR.

Fri: VFR in the morning, MVFR or lower in rain in the afternoon and
night.

Sat: VFR.

Sun. Chance of rain or showers. MVFR or lower possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A gale warning remains on the ocean waters through tonight with
gusts upwards of 35-40 kt expected. Small craft advisories also
continue for the sheltered and non-ocean waters tonight with
gusts upwards of 30 kt. The pressure gradient relaxes a bit on
Wednesday to allow for conditions to drop below gale force.
Small craft conditions will be likely on the ocean with gusts
near 25 kt during the day and seas near 5 feet. Non- ocean
waters should largely remain below small craft conditions but an
occasional 25 kt gust can`t be ruled out. Seas may allow small
craft advisories conditions to continue on the ocean through
Wednesday night.

Mrgnl sca seas on the ocean Thu thru Sat, otherwise, winds blw sca
lvl on all waters. Some stronger nely winds possible on Sun as low
pres develops in the ocean. A sca for all waters is possible.
Conditions improve on Mon behind the sys.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Tuesday of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MW
NEAR TERM...JMC/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MW