000
FXUS61 KOKX 291121
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
621 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area and remains in place through
Thursday. A weak cold front then approaches on Friday and
passes through during the night, weakening further nearby on
Saturday. A series of lows will then impact the area from Sunday
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is mainly on track. Minor adjustments made to
hourly temperatures and dewpoints for the next few hours based
on trends.

Surface high pressure ridge pushes through the region today. Mostly
clear early on, but some moisture below 500mb pushes in with more in
the way of clouds heading into the afternoon, then clearing
overnight. Winds will be lighter than what they had been the past
couple of days. Remaining dry today and tonight with NBM used for
temperatures.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
We`ll still be under the influence of high pressure Thursday and
Thursday night with a continuation of dry weather. SW winds will
help lead to milder temperatures with high temps falling just short
of seasonable levels.

For Friday, a weak surface cold front with increasing moisture
approaches and passes through during Friday night. Dry at least
through the morning. The cold front will then combine with lift from
a jet streak aloft and some mid-level vorticity for rain Friday
afternoon into the night. Rain amounts will be on the light side -
likely under a quarter of an inch across the entire area. High
temperatures will be generally around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled period is likely as upper level ridging off the
Southeast gives way to broad troughing moving in from the central
US. Timing of various shortwaves within the trough attm suggests
best chances for rain during this time will take place Sunday
afternoon/night as low pressure developing near the Carolina coast
passes well offshore, and again Mon afternoon/night as the trough
deepens and takes on a neutral or negative tilt, and an associated
sfc low passes through the Northeast and/or Mid Atlantic regions.

Temps through the period should be a little above normal, with a
trend to below normal temps expected just beyond the forecast period
as the last of the series of lows above pulls in colder air from the
NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR as high pressure slowly builds to the south. High confidence in
W flow backing SW this afternoon.

 ...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late tonight through Thursday night: VFR.
Friday: MVFR or lower in rain in the afternoon and evening.
Saturday: Mainly VFR.
Sunday: MVFR or lower possible, with chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA for the ocean waters today and tonight. There will likely be a
period from late morning into the first half of the afternoon where
conditions will prevail below advisory criteria. Winds and seas
should then increase late in the day into tonight. After
collaboration with the surrounding offices, have decided to carry
the SCA through the entire period of today and tonight. There could
also be occasional advisory-level gusts over some of the non-ocean
waters through this morning and again tonight, but decided not to
extend the SCA here as most of the area will prevail below 25kt.
After a break from advisory conditions Thursday, SCA conditions
become likely again on the ocean during Thursday night into Friday
morning with a tightening pressure gradient and seas building up to
around 5ft.

Generally quiet conditions this weekend. Winds on the ocean could
gust to 25 kt following passage of an offshore low, but forecast
confidence at that time range is low to medium.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG