000
FXUS61 KOKX 291439
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
939 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area and remains in place through
Thursday. A weak cold front then approaches on Friday and passes
through during the night, weakening further nearby on Saturday.
A series of lows will then impact the area from Sunday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak upper shortwave is moving through the northwest cyclonic
flow. Clouds, mainly mid and upper level, have been increasing
into the lower Hudson Valley as seen on the visible and water
vapor satellite loops. Updated to increase cloud cover sooner
than previous forecast. Also, made adjustments to hourly
temperatures and dewpoint based on trends.

A surface high pressure ridge pushes through the region today.
Mostly clear early on, but some moisture below 500mb pushes in
with more in the way of clouds heading into the afternoon, then
clearing overnight. Winds will be lighter than what they had
been the past couple of days. Remaining dry with NBM used for
temperatures.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
We`ll still be under the influence of high pressure Thursday and
Thursday night with a continuation of dry weather. SW winds will
help lead to milder temperatures with high temps falling just
short of seasonable levels.

For Friday, a weak surface cold front with increasing moisture
approaches and passes through during Friday night. Dry at least
through the morning. The cold front will then combine with lift
from a jet streak aloft and some mid-level vorticity for rain
Friday afternoon into the night. Rain amounts will be on the
light side - likely under a quarter of an inch across the entire
area. High temperatures will be generally around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled period is likely as upper level ridging off the
Southeast gives way to broad troughing moving in from the
Central states. Timing of various shortwaves within the trough
attm suggests best chances for rain during this time would take
place Sunday afternoon/night as low pressure developing near the
Carolina coast passes well offshore, and again Mon
afternoon/night as the upper trough deepens and takes on a
neutral or negative tilt, and an associated sfc low passes
through the Northeast and/or Mid Atlantic regions.

Temps through the period should be a little above normal, with a
trend to below normal temps expected just beyond the forecast
period as the last of the series of lows above pulls in colder
air from the NW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR through the TAF period as high pressure slowly builds to the
south.

W wind 10-15kt this morning expected to shift more SW this
afternoon. Gusts upwards of 20kt possible early afternoon into the
early evening. Wind may become more W again overnight as speeds
decrease to less than 10kt.

 ...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts this afternoon could be more occasional than frequent.

OUTLOOK FOR 15Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: MVFR or lower in rain in the afternoon and evening.

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible, with chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No changes to the winds and seas at this time.

SCA for the ocean waters through tonight. There will likely be
a period from late morning into the first half of the afternoon
where conditions will prevail below advisory criteria. Winds and
seas should then increase late in the day into tonight. After
collaboration with the surrounding offices, have decided to
carry the SCA through the entire period of today and tonight.
There could also be occasional advisory-level gusts over some of
the non-ocean waters through this morning and again tonight,
but decided not to extend the SCA here as most of the area will
prevail below 25 kt.

After a break from advisory conditions Thursday, SCA conditions
become likely again on the ocean during Thursday night into
Friday morning with a tightening pressure gradient and seas
building up to around 5 ft.

Generally quiet conditions should follow for this weekend.
Winds on the ocean could gust to 25 kt Sunday night following
passage of an offshore low well to the SE, but forecast
confidence at that time range is low to medium.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG