000
FXUS61 KOKX 300223
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
923 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered over the southeastern states tonight
and moves slowly offshore Thursday and Thursday night. A weak
cold front then approaches on Friday and passes through during
the night, weakening further nearby on Saturday. A series of
lows will then impact the area from Sunday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A solid ovc was moving across the cwa this eve. The fcst has
been updated accordingly. Clearing still expected in the early
mrng hours, so made no adjustments to low temps attm.
A weak upper shortwave was moving quickly through the cyclonic
flow, accompanied by mid and high cloudiness. This wave moves
offshore this evening and skies will be clearing. There was
very weak warm air advection setting up, however, with clearing
skies and relatively light winds late tonight, temperatures will
be falling to near what overnight lows were this morning. Lows
will be between 5 and 10 degrees below normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Return flow will be strengthening during Thursday as the
surface high moves off the southeastern coast, and low level
warm advection strengthens. There will be an increase in upper
level moisture, so after a start with mostly clear skies, high
thin clouds will be moving in, especially late in the day, well
ahead of the next system approaching in the southern stream
from the southwestern states. Temperatures will be rebounding to
near normal levels.
Thursday night the area remains in a deep southwest flow with
increasing warm advection and a strengthening flow as a
southern stream shortwave moves int the southern Great Lakes
region by 12Z Friday. Overnight lows Thursday night will be near
to just above seasonal normals for the beginning of
meteorological winter December 1.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A rather unsettled long term period with multiple chances for
precipitation. Stuck fairly close to the NBM through this
period.
The long term starts off Friday with a weak surface cold front
approaching the region. The morning will start off dry, however
by POPs quickly increase becoming likely during the afternoon
and evening, continuing into the overnight as the front moves
across the area. Rain amounts will remain on the light with QPF
values remaining below a quarter of an inch across the entire
area.
A series of shortwaves will pass near the region this weekend
into next week. Right now, it looks like the best chances for
rain will take place Sunday afternoon/night as low pressure
developing near the Carolina coast passes well offshore, and
then again Mon afternoon/night as another shortwave passes near
the region with a surface low developing and passing offshore.
Temperatures will remain at or slightly above normal through much of
the long term, It wont be until next Wednesday when temperatures
fall below normal as the last of the series of lows pulls in colder
air from the NW.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period as high pressure slowly builds to the
south.
SW winds around 10 kt overnight. Flow may veer a little more to the
WSW at times late as speeds decrease slightly. SW flow around 10 kt
again on Thu, decreasing aft 00z Fri.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday night: VFR.
Friday: MVFR or lower in rain in the late afternoon and evening.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Localized MVFR possible.
Sunday and Monday: MVFR or lower possible, with chance of rain.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels across the forecast
waters tonight through Thursday as high pressure remains to the
south of waters. A southwest flow will be strengthening during
Thursday as low pressure and an associated cold front approach from
the northwest. Wind gusts may reach minimal SCA levels on the ocean
waters Thursday evening, and ocean seas likely build to 5 feet by
late Thursday evening into the overnight. With conditions developing
later in the 3rd period will hold off on issuing a SCA at this
time.
SCA conditions will be possible on Friday as the gradient tightens.
Seas will be to around 4ft, and its possible 5ft seas will be
reached.
Generally quiet conditions this weekend. A better chance of SCA
conditions come on Monday into Tuesday as low pressure develops and
passes near the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next Wednesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC/MW
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET