000
FXUS61 KOKX 300604
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
104 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure centered over the Southeastern states will move
slowly offshore Thursday and Thursday night. A weak cold front
will then approach on Friday and move through Friday night,
weakening further nearby on Saturday. A series of lows will
then impact the area from Sunday into Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak shortwave was moving quickly through cyclonic flow
aloft, accompanied by overcast mid level clouds. This wave will
move offshore overnight, with clearing skies from about 08Z-11Z.
While very weak warm air advection was setting up, with the
clearing skies and relatively light winds late, temperatures
will be falling to near what overnight lows were last night,
with lows about 5-10 degrees below normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Return flow will be strengthening during Thursday as the surface
high moves off the southeastern coast, and low level warm
advection strengthens. There will be an increase in upper level
moisture, so after a start with mostly clear skies, high thin
clouds will be moving in, especially late in the day, well ahead
of the next system approaching in the southern stream from the
southwestern states. Temperatures will be rebounding to near
normal levels.
Thursday night the area remains in a deep southwest flow with
increasing warm advection and a strengthening flow as a
southern stream shortwave moves int the southern Great Lakes
region by 12Z Friday. Overnight lows Thursday night will be near
to just above seasonal normals for the beginning of
meteorological winter (December 1st).-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A rather unsettled long term period with multiple chances for
precipitation. Stuck fairly close to the NBM through this
period.
The long term starts off Friday with a weak surface cold front
approaching the region. The morning will start off dry,
however PoP will quickly increase, becoming likely during the
afternoon and evening, continuing into the overnight as the
front moves across. QPF will remain on the light side, below 1/4
inch.
A series of shortwaves will pass near the region this weekend
into next week. Right now, it looks like the best chances for
rain will take place Sunday afternoon/night as low pressure
developing near the Carolina coast passes well offshore, and
then again Mon afternoon/night as another shortwave passes near
the region with a surface low developing and passing offshore.
Temperatures will remain at or slightly above normal through
much of the long term, It wont be until next Wednesday when
temperatures fall below normal as the last of the series of lows
pulls in colder air from the NW.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure remains to the south. OVC080 cigs should
generally scatter from west-east between 08Z-11Z, at the NYC
metros between 08Z-09Z. WSW winds 5-10 kt overnight into the
morning should start to increase closer to 10 kt after about
14Z-15Z, back SW this afternoon, then diminish somewhat
tonight.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Late tonight: VFR.
Friday: Rain in the afternoon/evening with MVFR or lower cond.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Sunday and Monday: Chance of rain, with
MVFR or lower cond possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and seas should remain below advisory levels through
Thursday as high pressure remains to the south. Strengthening SW
flow as low pressure and an associated cold front approach from
the NW may produce minimal SCA cond on the ocean waters, with
25-kt gusts Thu evening, and seas up to 5 ft late Thu evening
into the overnight.
SCA cond could last into Fri as the pressure gradient tightens.
Seas will be up to at least 4 ft, it`s possible 5 ft seas will
be reached.
Generally quiet conditions this weekend. A better chance of SCA
conditions will come from Mon-Tue as low pressure develops and
passes nearby.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next Wednesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC/BG/MW
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET