000
FXUS61 KOKX 301045
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
545 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through tonight. A weak wave of low
pressure then passes nearby Friday afternoon into evening, with a
weak trough of low pressure remaining nearby on Saturday. A frontal
boundary then lingers nearby to the south Saturday night into
Sunday. Low pressure developing along the front will pass to the
south on Sunday and then move farther out to sea on Monday.
High pressure will build from the west for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is mainly on track. Minor adjustments made to
temps and dewpoints for the next few hours.
The region will be under the influence of high pressure centered
over the western Atlantic today and tonight. Dry weather, with SW
winds helping push temperatures from the mid 40s well-inland to near
50 along the coast. Radiational cooling could be offset for a few
hours tonight with the potential of cirrus passing through. Went
with an even blend of MAV/MET/NBM for tonight`s lows for spots that
typically experience stronger radiational cooling.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A jet streak with enhanced lift will be shifting through the Ohio
Valley/Eastern Great Lakes during the day Friday and passing to our
north Friday evening. Its position relative to the forecast area has
trended less favorably for upper divergence. Still, some models
suggest a very weak low center passing through or nearby us, so
associated isentropic lift and a mid-level shortwave will combine
with the available moisture for the likelihood of rain Friday
afternoon and evening. Mid-level drying occurs occurs overnight and
lasts into Saturday. At the same time, weak theta-e ridging and
isentropic lift bring a slight chance of light rain or drizzle late
Friday night through Saturday. With the lack of ice nucleation, will
need to monitor surface temperature trends for freezing drizzle
potential well NW of the city as progged temperatures are in the mid
30s for an extended period. Left out the mention of fog late Friday
night into Saturday morning as approx 20kt winds at the base of a
low level inversion should provide enough turbulent mixing with the
lingering low level moisture to favor low stratus over fog.
NBM looked good for temperatures Friday through Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An unsettled period is likely from Sat night into Monday as western
Atlantic ridging gives way to a broad longwave trough. There will be
a chance for some light rain or drizzle initially from Sat night
into Sunday with a stationary front lingering to the south and a NE
flow becoming established. Best chances for rain look to be from
late day Sunday into Monday morning as low pressure developing over
the Mid Atlantic region approaches and then passes to the south.
Temps during this period will be above normal.
CAA on the back side of the low will then bring dry wx on a gusty NW
flow, but with cyclonic low level flow promoting partly to mostly
cloudy skies especially Tue afternoon/night. Temps will be cooling
to near normal on Tue, and a little below normal on Wed.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR as high pressure remains to the south. WSW winds 5-10 kt should
start to increase closer to 10 kt after about 14Z-15Z, then back SW
this afternoon, and diminish somewhat tonight.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Late tonight: VFR.
Friday: Rain in the afternoon and at night with MVFR or lower cond.
Saturday: Chance of light rain or drizzle, with MVFR or lower cond
possible.
Sunday: Rain with MVFR or lower cond likely. N winds G15-20kt NYC
metro/coast late at night.
Monday: Chance of rain. MVFR or lower cond likely especially AM. NW
winds G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Marginal SCA conditions for the pre-dawn hours on the ocean before
winds and seas subside slightly. Winds and seas then start
increasing this afternoon into tonight with the pressure gradient
tightening a little. Have gone with a SCA on all ocean zones
starting mid-afternoon, but ending tonight west of Fire Island
Inlet. East of the inlet, SCA is currently posted through noon on
Friday but might be able to be canceled a few hours sooner. Sub-
advisory conditions then prevail through Saturday with diminishing
winds.
SCA cond are likely on all waters Sunday night into Mon night with
the approach and passage of intensifying offshore low pressure. A
few NW gale force gusts may be possible on the ocean waters Mon
night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next Wednesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon EST
Friday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
Friday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG