000
FXUS61 KOKX 301434
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
934 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through tonight. A weak wave of
low pressure then passes nearby Friday afternoon into evening,
with a weak trough of low pressure remaining nearby on
Saturday. A frontal boundary then lingers nearby to the south
Saturday night into Sunday. Low pressure developing along the
front will pass to the south on Sunday and then move farther out
to sea on Monday. High pressure will build from the west for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is mainly on track. Cloud cover was adjusted
downward as observations and satellite imagery are both
indicating nearly clear skies. Otherwise, did the usual
adjustments to temperatures, dew points, and winds for current
conditions.

The region will be under the influence of high pressure
centered over the western Atlantic today and tonight. Dry
weather, with SW winds will help raise high temperatures above
yesterday`s levels. Radiational cooling could be offset for a
few hours tonight with the potential of cirrus passing through.
Went with an even blend of MAV/MET/NBM for tonight`s lows for
spots that typically experience stronger radiational cooling.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A jet streak with enhanced lift will be shifting through the
Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes during the day Friday and
passing to our north Friday evening. Its position relative to
the forecast area has trended less favorably for upper
divergence. Still, some models suggest a very weak low center
passing through or nearby us, so associated isentropic lift and
a mid-level shortwave will combine with the available moisture
for the likelihood of rain Friday afternoon and evening. Mid-
level drying occurs occurs overnight and lasts into Saturday. At
the same time, weak theta-e ridging and isentropic lift bring a
slight chance of light rain or drizzle late Friday night
through Saturday. With the lack of ice nucleation, will need to
monitor surface temperature trends for freezing drizzle
potential well NW of the city as progged temperatures are in the
mid 30s for an extended period. Left out the mention of fog
late Friday night into Saturday morning as approx 20kt winds at
the base of a low level inversion should provide enough
turbulent mixing with the lingering low level moisture to favor
low stratus over fog.

NBM looked good for temperatures Friday through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An unsettled period is likely from Sat night into Monday as
western Atlantic ridging gives way to a broad longwave troughing
with embedded shortwaves. There will be a chance for some light
rain or drizzle initially from Sat night into Sunday with a
stationary front lingering to the south and a NE flow becoming
established. Best chances for rain look to be from late day
Sunday into Monday morning as low pressure developing over the
Mid Atlantic region approaches and then passes to the south.
Temps during this period will be above normal.

CAA on the back side of the low will then bring dry wx on a
gusty NW flow, but with cyclonic low level flow promoting
partly to mostly cloudy skies especially Tue afternoon/night.
Temps will be cooling to near normal on Tue, and a little below
normal on Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure remains to the south. Winds are below 10
kt in the 15Z TAFs but should increase to 10-12 kt by 17-18Z
becoming more SW. Winds may not diminish very much tonight
closer to the coast and in the metro area (KLGA/KJFK/KBDR/KGON).

 ...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Friday: Rain in the afternoon and at night with MVFR or lower
cond.

Saturday: Chance of light rain or drizzle, with MVFR or lower
cond possible.

Sunday: Rain with MVFR or lower cond likely. N winds G15-20kt
NYC metro/coast late at night.

Monday: Chance of rain. MVFR or lower cond likely especially AM.
NW winds G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and gusts observations on the ocean waters were a few
knots lower than forecast and adjustments were made. Seas
continue to be near 4 feet.

Winds and seas start increasing this afternoon into tonight
with the pressure gradient tightening a little. SCA remains in
effect for the ocean starting at 3 PM this afternoon, then
ending at 6 AM Fri W Fire Island Inlet and until 12 PM east.

SCA cond are also likely on all waters Sunday night into Mon
night with the approach and passage of intensifying offshore low
pressure. A few NW gale force gusts may be possible on the
ocean waters Mon night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon EST
     Friday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG/BR
MARINE...JC/BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG