000
FXUS61 KOKX 010615
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
115 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure off the southeastern coast will remain in control
through tonight and into early Friday. A weak wave of low
pressure then passes slowly through the region late Friday
through Friday night. A weak wave of low pressure moves across
Saturday night, followed by another weak low being nearby later
Sunday and Sunday night. A weak trough moves through on Monday.
A clipper low moves south and offshore for mid week, followed by
high pressure nosing in from the southwest for late in the
week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The fcst is on track. Near zonal upper flow will remain through
tonight as a dampening southern stream shortwave moves toward
the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure off the
southeastern states will remain in place. A return flow will
remain tonight with falling temperatures leveling off as upper
level clouds and warm advection increase. Low temps a bit above
seasonal normals for the first day of meteorological winter,
December 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The weak upper shortwave moving through the near zonal flow
continues to weaken and flatten Friday and shears out into a
broad flat wave by 12Z Saturday with the wave east of the Great
Lakes and into upstate New York. Lift will be weak, but
increasing later Friday as warm advection strengthens with
increasing isentropic lift. Also, a low level jet streak will
enhance lift later Friday into Friday night. The timing for the
onset of precipitation is slightly later than previous
forecasts, with the rain arriving in the western and northern
area mid to late Friday afternoon. There may be enough cold air
in place at the onset of precipitation for a few flurries
across the higher terrain of Orange County. Much of the energy
with the upper wave tracks to the north of the region, and with
the flat flow the system will remain progressive. Precipitation
will be mainly occurring Friday night, ending late Friday and
toward Saturday morning. With mid level drying and the lower
levels remaining saturated, especially toward the coast, a
period of light rain and drizzle will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A complicated pattern in the long term with a series of waves
of low pressure to monitor.

To begin the period ridging off the SE coast and into
Hispaniola will have temperatures starting off milder overall.
Temperatures should get well into the 50s to start the weekend
on Saturday despite a good deal of clouds in advance of weak low
pressure moving quickly from SW to NE. Mainly just some thermal
forcing with this system. Vertical motion will be fairly weak
with a lack of strong advection both in terms of temperature and
vorticity. The system will be rather progressive, therefore
look for a plain light rain with milder air preceding the
system. The most likely period of measurable rain for the
weekend is Sat night with the first wave, followed by another
brief period of high end chance / low end likely PoPs for late
in the day Sunday and Sunday night more associated with the main
trough pivoting through. Rainfall amounts summed from both
waves of low pressure should not amount to more than a quarter
to a half inch. Thus, likely under a quarter of an inch from
both disturbances.

As the low associated with the upper levels begins to deepen as
it pushes away on Monday a NW flow will increase. This will
usher in on a NW flow another round of seasonably cold air. By
late Monday night and into Tuesday temperatures will fall to
normal levels, or perhaps a degree or two below normal. By
Tuesday a clipper type low is expected to drive SE across the
Eastern Plains and Midwest. The GFS is the least progressive
with this system and actually has some semblance of it more
amplitude to it compared to the other global guidance camps. The
ECMWF is the most progressive with this spoke of energy and
pushes the system just south of the area and well offshore. If
the GFS deterministic solution is close to being correct then a
touch of light snow would be possible Tuesday night into early
Wed. The consensus of the guidance was followed and stayed close
to the NBM PoPs. Have slight chance PoPs in case system does
attempt to be less progressive as there is some semblance of a
positive height anomaly in Davis Strait / Greenland and a 50/50
low. The gut feeling at this point is the system should be
progressive enough with most of the precip likely staying off
shore into early Wed.

High pressure is then progged to nose in from the southwest for
later in the week. A milder SW flow may return towards the end of
next week. Overall temperatures should average near to slightly
below normal Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure will remain to the S today. Low pressure will
then pass to the W tonight.

VFR for most of the day, then MVFR developing after 20Z with
light rain. Areas of IFR likely after 00Z-03Z with light rain or
drizzle.

SSW/SW winds around 10 kt thru today, then winds become
light/variable tonight.

 ...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Tonight: IFR in light rain/drizzle.

Saturday: Chance of light rain/drizzle, with MVFR or lower cond
possible.

Sunday: Rain with MVFR or lower cond likely. N winds G15-20kt NYC
metro/coast late at night.

Monday: Chance of rain. MVFR or lower cond likely especially AM.
NW winds G20kt.

Tuesday: Chance of rain early, VFR by the afternoon. NW winds
G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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As high pressure moves farther off shore of the southeastern
coast and a cold front approaches from the northwest into this
evening, the pressure gradient increases slightly and southwest
wind gusts and ocean seas may approach SCA levels. The pressure
gradient then weakens late tonight into Friday as a southern
stream low moves into the Upper Midwest and central Mississippi
Valley. A SCA for the ocean waters will remain in place through
tonight for the marginal conditions. With conditions likely
falling below advisory levels Friday morning, have cancelled the
advisory for the eastern waters that was in effect Friday
morning. Then with the low weakening gradually and moving into
the region late Friday into Friday night, winds and seas on the
ocean will remain below advisory levels through Friday night.

For the non ocean waters winds and seas remain below advisory
levels tonight through Friday night.

Sub small craft conditions are expected through much of the
weekend. Late Sunday night and into Monday and Monday night in
the wake of low pressure small craft conditions will become
increasingly likely on the ocean waters. During the day on
Monday and also into much of Monday night on a NW wind there
will also be the possibility of small craft conditions on the
near shore waters due to gusts around 25 kt. Sub small craft
conditions would then likely return for all waters on Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/JE/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JMC/BG
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET